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NotFrenchYet: Ah! Baz, that's an interesting point you bring up in #1280 about a single-player 3rd mafia faction - wouldn't that explain the traitor?

Okie dokie. I was re-reading with tea and nutella, and in the depths of the thread, I found this: ...

Except, y'know, this is the only piece of serious scum hunting you've done the whole time... ;)

I thought there was something odd about the pressure on Baron when he paraphrased his PM - out of the three people applying serious pressure, two are now confirmed mafia. SirPrimalform! A moment of your time, please.
I'd like to put this down to being bad at scum hunting (I do feel that my deductive skills are lacking) but I know that won't be enough to convince anyone. :P
I'd like to think that if I was mafia, I wouldn't be as stupid as to join in on an attack with my scumbuddies. Out of interest, who were the other two? I think Orry was one of them, which would make the other one a member of the other faction, right?


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NotFrenchYet: Now, I know for fact that you've had genuine reasons for absence (jeez I sound like a teacher!), which is why I'm not calling you out for that.

But I read back for Primal-posts, and some of them do seem rather off. For example, #541:

Wha? What was the basis for that deduction? And what relevence did/does it have to anything?
It was so long ago I honestly can't remember. I wish I could say more.

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NotFrenchYet: Primal also vaguely supported a night 0 theory until Violator stepped in to clarify (#550, #176).

Otherwise his posting tends to follow one of two forumlae: either agreeing with the quoted poster ... or suggesting alternatives to the quoted idea ... without actually offering anything of his own.

... including full reads. He states his supicions occasionally but hardly ever votes to back them up ... and has never actually posted a full read on everyone. He was miles way from all three lynches.
I wanted to avoid going all metagamey, but that's unfortunately how I always play. I am bad at being town.

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NotFrenchYet: Let's go.

Vote Primal for ridiculously unconstructive play.
I can't really fault your reasoning there, I have been playing unconstructively.

In a vague attempt to rectify that, here are some thoughts (not really reads, but the best I can come up with):

Red_Baron: Possible third Gambiani member - His kill happened on the night we would have expected a Gambiani kill assuming they're alternating
nmillar: I'm now fairly certain he's town, I'm not sure of the reliability/usefulness of his info though

I thought I had more but I've got a block now. Maybe in ten minutes I'll have dredged some more thoughts out.

I hope I haven't screwed the formatting up...
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SirPrimalform: Out of interest, who were the other two? I think Orry was one of them, which would make the other one a member of the other faction, right?
As to my understanding it was Twilight and Orryrro

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SirPrimalform: Red_Baron: Possible third Gambiani member - His kill happened on the night we would have expected a Gambiani kill assuming they're alternating
Okay now I am curious:
What knowledge do you have of the setup for this game to say that? You basing it on that Joe was killed by shattered hand and that we have two dead from the Gambiani for this day, so it follows that I must be gambiani.. I see the argument, but it is flawed:
If this setup with the kills really was the case, why then 2 kills now?
And as said before, why claim the kill if I am mafia.. even more so when other mafia factions are around to also make be at risk to get killed. But yea, I know that your suspicious of me, well I am interested in you as well, but need to see if I can get my feeling into something concrete.


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SirPrimalform: nmillar: I'm now fairly certain he's town, I'm not sure of the reliability/usefulness of his info though
Well thats odd, if you consider him town then I rather certain you will agree that he is very useful for us. Just look at the case with Orryrro and consider the possibilities of confirming others, assuming of course that he is town. But since you're fairly certain he is, then commenting that his info might be useless or unreliable is very odd in my opinion.
I still can't remember what I was thinking about when I made the bomb comment.


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Red_Baron: Okay now I am curious:
What knowledge do you have of the setup for this game to say that? You basing it on that Joe was killed by shattered hand and that we have two dead from the Gambiani for this day, so it follows that I must be gambiani.. I see the argument, but it is flawed:
If this setup with the kills really was the case, why then 2 kills now?
And as said before, why claim the kill if I am mafia.. even more so when other mafia factions are around to also make be at risk to get killed. But yea, I know that your suspicious of me, well I am interested in you as well, but need to see if I can get my feeling into something concrete.
Well assuming you're town, the Gambiani family haven't killed at all this game. Given that we had shattered hand murders on nights 1 and 3 and both the night 3 kills were Gambiani family members, it's fairly obvious that they should have had a kill on night 3.
I'm not sure how there being 2 kills now makes this impossible? I suppose we have some kind of third party.

Pre-post EDIT: Just remembered Zchinque's analysis and I take the third Gambiani thing back. It really does seem unlikely that there would be more than two members. Given that the shattered hand killed the night before, I don't so much suspect you to be another shattered hand member. As such, I accept your claim for now.


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Red_Baron: Well thats odd, if you consider him town then I rather certain you will agree that he is very useful for us. Just look at the case with Orryrro and consider the possibilities of confirming others, assuming of course that he is town. But since you're fairly certain he is, then commenting that his info might be useless or unreliable is very odd in my opinion.
Well the main reason I have doubts is that he thought Twilight was town. :P
The criminal record thing is obviously something not to be relied upon for determining alignment.
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SirPrimalform: -snip-

Well the main reason I have doubts is that he thought Twilight was town. :P
The criminal record thing is obviously something not to be relied upon for determining alignment.
True, we can't take it totally for granted given its apparently flavor way of delivering the info to nmillar.
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SirPrimalform: -snip-
Well the main reason I have doubts is that he thought Twilight was town. :P
The criminal record thing is obviously something not to be relied upon for determining alignment.
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Red_Baron: True, we can't take it totally for granted given its apparently flavor way of delivering the info to nmillar.
As I understand it, LACK of criminal record is ambiguous, but actually receiving a full one is pretty solid, i.e. Orry. Innocent until proven guilty, right?

nmillar, were there any flavoury details in Orry's file that might be useful here?
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NotFrenchYet: nmillar, were there any flavoury details in Orry's file that might be useful here?
It was a very comprehensive criminal record, so it was fairly obvious that he was mafia. Damnation's stated that a possession charge is the only thing on his criminal record and TwilightBard's came up with no criminal activity at all.
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NotFrenchYet: nmillar, were there any flavoury details in Orry's file that might be useful here?
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nmillar: It was a very comprehensive criminal record, so it was fairly obvious that he was mafia. Damnation's stated that a possession charge is the only thing on his criminal record and TwilightBard's came up with no criminal activity at all.
So that doesn't really confirm Damnation as town at all?
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SirPrimalform: So that doesn't really confirm Damnation as town at all?
That's what I wanted to say. Also, in this kind of town, having no criminal records at all is probably meant to be seen as suspicious.

Possession does sound harmless enough, though.
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SirPrimalform: So that doesn't really confirm Damnation as town at all?
I'm still fairly certain that Damnation is town, but I agree, TwilightBard turning out to be scum does throw up an element of doubt.
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nmillar: I'm still fairly certain that Damnation is town, but I agree, TwilightBard turning out to be scum does throw up an element of doubt.
Well the contrast between Orry's file and Bard's file should show that it's more a question of what they got caught doing rather than what they've done. The fact that the only thing in Damnation's file is a drug possession charge basically means nothing in terms of determining alignment, so I assume you have other reasons for thinking him town (his posting style and so on).
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nmillar: I'm still fairly certain that Damnation is town, but I agree, TwilightBard turning out to be scum does throw up an element of doubt.
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SirPrimalform: Well the contrast between Orry's file and Bard's file should show that it's more a question of what they got caught doing rather than what they've done. The fact that the only thing in Damnation's file is a drug possession charge basically means nothing in terms of determining alignment, so I assume you have other reasons for thinking him town (his posting style and so on).
If he did, surely he would have said when I "trapped" him.. -_-;

Incidentally, the third man I was thinking of in the paraphrse-pressure part was Robbeasy, but Bard was also involved at the beginning, if I remember rightly.

I was about to wonder if nmillar's role might be another one of the mystical insane roles that Rod was going on about, but the Orry read turned out to be right, so this is highly unlikely... It doesn't look like we can put too much faith in the criminal record thing either, which is a blow - that could have been really useful...

@Primal, yes Orry was one, but at this point I'm not convinced the other factions new about each other, so I don't think it would be too strange for you to partner up here - Baron was the target of the hour after all. But it is kind of an obvious move.
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NotFrenchYet: If he did, surely he would have said when I "trapped" him.. -_-;
I'm slightly confused as to what this sentence is about. o.0
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NotFrenchYet: If he did, surely he would have said when I "trapped" him.. -_-;
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SirPrimalform: I'm slightly confused as to what this sentence is about. o.0
She's referring me to when I used her questions as an excuse to spill the beans. ;)
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SirPrimalform: I'm slightly confused as to what this sentence is about. o.0
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nmillar: She's referring me to when I used her questions as an excuse to spill the beans. ;)
Ah..!

So do you have other reasons for considering Damnation town?
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SirPrimalform: So do you have other reasons for considering Damnation town?
No, I'm basing it entirely on the information I was given.