Happy new Year, and a post to say that I am still alive and returning to normal ones again.

Happy new year everyone, I wont be prodding till the 4th Jan due to public holidays etc

Right, back to business. Red_Baron and NotFrenchYet were my two primary suspects before the Christmas break, and since we've already pushed Red_Baron for information, it's now time to target my other suspect.

Vote NotFrenchYet.

Considering your avatar, you should have said "Still alive!"

Well thats not an entirely unreasonable idea and as I recall I did also consider her one of my suspects, so I'll tag along with that one, but! For a different form of information than a claim, as I have learned from the mafia guide which was so helpfully posted in the thread, that claiming while under pressure is not a good idea for any town and instead judgment of the reactions are to be made - in that light: Vote NotFrenchYet and hope our X is back in action after the parties.

I finally did my PBPA of Twilight and I have some conclusions to share. I'll try to keep it brief, but well, you know me. So here they are, the facts about TwilightBard as reported by baz:

At first, the Bard is just... around (and often makes it to the many lists of lurkers). Jumps on Grynn rather quickly (#118) and a bit too strongly considering what a silly sentence his reported slip was in the first place. When the Rod shitstorm begins, he stays mostly out of it, and keeps slowly grilling Grynn. Eventually, he acknowledges the situation and votes for me, even though he seems much more interested in itai (#395). He did not participate in itai's lynch at all. That's pretty much it for day one.

Day two, well, not much there at the beginning. Twilight secures his position as the Doubting Thomas: not believing me and Rod (#602) and starting to seed doubts about Jefe re: his Lover role (#608). Then comes a rather unusual flurry of posts (615, 620, 626), continuing the discussion of the Lover problem; #649 mentions his dislike for the multiple mafia theory. In #684, TB plants the idea/expresses his conviction that Jefe is about to die at night, which is an interesting point. #684 and #728 both defend Rodzaju: the argument is that coming out with his information was ultimately for the benefit of town. In #794 he turns around and hammers Rod. This is another two-edged sword: voting for Rod at this point was a perfectly safe move even for scum, because Rod really was asking for it (confirming he had lied, advocating the lynch of a confirmed townie), even earning the hammerer some nice town points; but it is, of course, true that any townie would be voting for Rod in this situation as well. The U-turn is what makes it interesting, though. ("I know this is going to be sudden, I know this is going to look scummy, but..." -- I find lines like this always suspect)

Now we move on to day three where things get interesting. Straight off the bat (when the day had just begun), TB asks Jefe: "did something happen night 1 that would have broken your role?" (#818) and quickly follows up with a vote (#825). I find his eagerness odd; up to now, he had been rather careful with his voting, and even less characteristically, this was after the nightkill of a Traitor. Yet TB apparently does not find this interesting at all and does not wait for a discussion of what the Traitor thing could have meant. No. He has a target and he's going to push for it. It looks rather like it were a prepared strategy, doesn't it? The gunning for Jefe continues with an unusual intensity (829, 832). In #866, TB switches targets to me for a while, but I have already talked about that. And in #871, he adds Red_Baron to the grand list of people he doubts.

To sum it up, my problem with Twilight is that all of his targets seem terribly convenient. IF he is scum, he knows the truth behind all the claims floating around. IF he is scum, there is nothing simpler than to pretend you do not believe any of the claims; it is a perfect way to push a lynch, get rid of a troublesome power role and look like a concerned townie throughout. It is a classic ploy, a clever ploy, and something I can imagine TwilightBard (whom I know to be a smart player who likes to analyse the mechanics of the game) pulling off easily. So that's that, basically.

* * *

And now something extra: there's one last bit which I have long pondered how to tackle. You see, there is this one post that has had me puzzled ever since it first appeared: #194. There are so many oddities in this one I cannot help but think there is a message hidden in it, but I can't find it no matter what I do. These oddities are:

* Mod with a capital M (in its first occurrence only). In all other posts in which TB says mod (125, 608, 825 and 829), there is a lowercase m.

* Falseclaims with a capital F (second occurrence only). Unlike in #684 and #728.

* Coupled with these, there is a curious mention of "mod emails", which to me looks a lot like avoiding the breadcrumb-breaking abbreviation "PMs". TB does use "PM" in #895 (twice: once uppercase, once lowercase), but on the other hand, he again mentions "emails" in #973 (which might be a brilliant saving throw in case I'm right and there is a hidden message in #194, but then again, it might not).

* Underlined Wine in Front of Me. TB never underlines.

* Four words emphasised in capitals. NEVER, EVERYTHING, CLAIMING MAFIA. TB does emphasise using capitals (393, 602, 866, 895, 973), but never quite as much as here.

Again, I don't really know what to do with this. The post has the tell-tale signs of a crumb, but I don't see the message, which makes me uneasy -- as it means it could conceivably be intended for scumbuddies. (Never [say] everything [is] Wine in Front of Me [because it looks like] claiming mafia?) For completeness' sake, there's also weird capitalisation in #210 (Wine in its first instance, Lynch) which I'm also unsure about, but can't really see anything behind it.

I know how easy it is for TB to shoot all this down by saying there is no hidden message there and that he was just tired/in a hurry/dictating to his cat, so this really is just something to bear in mind. I'm not trying to pretend it's evidence of anything.

And it's not Christmas anymore, so:
vote TwilightBard

Yes im back, Sadly my life is all work and no play

Am on another 60hr week but should be around to answer any pm's

First, Happy New Year to you all. :)

Wow. I pop my head up to say I'm still alive, and two votes come flying in and hit me on the head..!

I must admit I'm not entirely sure how best to go about defending myself... I think post #913 caused the most trouble, but I did attempt to address the issues it brought up in #920.

The issue for me was your complaint about people (and me in particular) voicing their theories; without theories, we would have no game to speak of.

Oh, and a belated Happy New Year to you too. :)

hi just came around to say sorry for compleit inactivity without a warning ill be around tomoz to keap playing

Speaking of which, anyone have any theories which will get this game moving again?

I've just had a rant about lynching for lurking in game 10, so I really cant call you for it, but I hope you can get back into the swing of it quickly ;o)

@baz - some nice points, I'm having a look at that odd post and agree it seems funny, but don't think theres anything there - nothing I can make out anyway. I think your first two days sum up of Twilight don't really paint him as scum at all, but the third day definitely has some oddities.

The going after Jefe I can sort of understand - I also expected him to be dead and wondered why. The obvious answer was that he is lying somewhat about his role.

I'd like to see Twilights response before I make my mind up on anything..

Well, I have a few things to cover in my defense, and something I thought up real fast that I think needs to be brought up.

As far as the Rod/Baz situaton from earlier. I'm going to be honest that up until the point where Rod admitted to lying, that I really had no clue how to handle the situation. Had Rod not come out and admitted to lying and somehow managed to survive I'd probably still be highly confused on it. Even now the things that are attached to it are still at the forefront of my mind.

There's one thing with my thought that Jefe would die in night 2...that came from ROD, not me.

My responce was that I must have missed it, and I made the conclusion that you pointed out due to the fact that everyone was focused on other things, I simply made an assumption based on the data available, which said I was most likely wrong in my original suspicions.

As far as the Doubting Thomas thing, I have to ask a question. Why am I supposed to believe role claims that come out at points where there is no real reason for them? I flip flopped a lot on Rod's claim because I couldn't quite wrap my brain around the whole reasoning. Yours however still doesn't make a lick of sense to me, and the timing for Jefe and Red_Baron's strike me as very odd (and I'll come back to Red Baron's in a minute).

I'm not going to apologize for my choice of targets, I made my votes based on what I thought was oddities and what I thought would lead me to scum. I didn't bring the Traitor up because I didn't have anything constructive to say about it. I went with that question because I thought it was constructive in satisfying why Jefe had survived. I voted for him because to me what he gave me didn't fit, when you clarified it with your flavor I started rethinking the whole thing.

Now, on to 194....I'm not sure why it's getting this kind of attention, rereading it, I sorta got a sense of frustration out of it. I can tell you that there really wasn't any rhyme or reason that carries great influence, and certainly no breadcrumbing...but I get the feeling that you expected me to say that and are going to come out with a far more detailed 'reason' why there's something hidden in there. All and all I can't help but feel that there's a trap here when it was brought back up.

----------------

Now, onto something else.

I was thinking about the nightkill, or at least, the lack of a mafia nightkill. After considering the sides, I'm willing to present the only possible reasons that we don't have one (at least, that I could see)

1. The mafia just didn't execute a nightkill - I find this unlikely, for the reasoning that it would be pretty odd that the Mafia wouldn't take a chance on trying to kill someone, there are too many prime targets.

2. The mafia tried to nightkill Jefe - Again, I find this unlikely, there were a few of us thinking that he might die during Night 2 (at least, I know I was)

3. Baz blocked Jefe from making the nightkill - I doubt this. Going from the information that I can see in the game, I think it's safe to say that Jefe probably isn't scum. Or, at the very least, he can't possibly be the one executing the nightkills. Only included to have all of our options available.

4. Red Baron IS mafia, trying to conceal his participation in the kill - This DOES seem to be the most likely scenario...but I'm now uncertain. This and 5 are probably the highest probabilities though.

5. The mafia chose to kill Vitek as well, and Red Baron just got credit for the kill - I won't call it impossible, but the odds do seem a bit out there. Not to be discounted though, it's very possible.

6. The Mafia had tried to recruit Vitek, but he was killed - This I just thought up as I was typing things out. I'm not sure how high of a percentage that this could be possible, the flavor doesn't seem to suggest that this is what had happened though.

I'm also admitting, I have a concern with the amount of unprovoked claims, and how tough it's been to pull out all of the information that would lead us to understand this. Jefe I think I understand now, he probably didn't get any notification of being role blocked, so when prodded for it, he had nothing to give (although I'm concerned why considering he had that near-death scene). I could be wrong though, and will be keeping my eyes open.

Hmmmmmm, not as much here as I thought, guess I'll have to do some digging.

Besides bazilisek post and the votes on NFY you mean? I would say there is already something there to move on. And with TwilightBard's latest post that has just increased the possibilities.

So what your saying here, just to make sure I understand you correct: You had no clue how to react to Rod's really scummy behavior until the point where he went even scummier? And if he didn't do that you would still not know what to do about it? Thats odd, seeing as you seem to be not the slightest confused by what you call my "for no reason claim"? That doesn't add up, I believe I must have stated my reason for admitting that information several times and also noting out that it wasn't a claim. That you keep calling me on it as a claim makes you jump straight back to my list of suspects, where if I recall correct you were sitting at the absolute top of when Christmas hit us.

While I agree with your confusion as to basilisek claim, I do also consider it to somewhat make sense due to Rodzaju's actions, but I am rather certain I wouldn't have done the same. However we return once again to the above point: Why did you get confused to a state where you didn't know what to do in regards of Rodzaju, when my leak of info, with clear reasoning and benefits, you don't feel even mildly confused, you just decide that its most likely a lie?? How come you aren't confused about that point? Truly curious as to a reason.

So know with you being unclear as to why jef and baz revealed as did, according to what you wrote, you now rethought the whole thing because someone you don't know why claimed and is in doubt about made a post that confirmed another of those you were in doubt about.. But you still doubt very much the one who admitted an action for reasons of interest of all, similar to Baz post? Of course none have come up an confirmed my info, other than those whom stated that they believe it and my own argument, being that why would I do it if it weren't because I knew it had to be shared due to the important info it gave?

I'll just say okay to that, and note that I was considering breadcrumb as well, when I saw that post. Never found any sort of logic to it unlike Baz, but heck. I can't judge anything from strange posts.


Good thing you added the parentheses about it being what you could see, else saying the only possible reasons is a rather bold statement, even more so when you miss several.

Or possibility number 2: They couldn't make a night kill for some reason, maybe mod related? Thats been done before - No night kill every third day or something?

I agree, as I to find it unlikely - if he is town then the mafia would know it and could make a confusion kill by taking advantage of the belief that he would die...But that would be a bit flimsy for a idea - Just saying there is other possibilities.

And your building this on what? I am very curious since this is quite a turn from your earlier hunt after Jef. And as I also have a theory of innocence faking by being too innocent, I would really like to see it. And how can you see that he is not the one making the night-kill? If he was that would explain the lack of night kill, so I need to see some reasons before I'll write that off as easily as you apparently do.

And we return to both above asked questions and to the whole discussion we already had.. why the fuck would I claim the kill if I am trying to conceal my participation in it??! What I did can best be describe as the downright opposite of concealing my participation...

I doubt it, nothing I got mentioned anything about other being nearby.. But yea, I guess I can't completely write it off.

And now for another possibility:
The mafia simply didn't make a night kill because they had something better they could do/gain by using their own personal night actions. Thats also a possibility I say.

And now for yet another one:
They could have hit a bullet proof target

Or another:
Rod claimed the existence of another doc, they could have hit someone he/she was protecting, in which case he/she would be the only one who knew, and thus me giving up my info would be a good help for whomever (if any) had a hand in the apparent lack of night-kill. And there you yet again have my reason for leaking the info.

Good one, hadn't thought off that, although I weren't aware that they could do that? Guess its still me not reading the wiki about traitors thats keeping me in the dark.

Quite frankly I am trying to understand what your saying here... You said that people revealed info without reason, but that its been tough to pull the information out? How does that make sense? And if you trying to say: Its been hard to pull claims from people then I am even more clueless as to your reason for writing it. And should I point out again, that I didn't claim? And how does Jef, maybe being roleblocked relate to him not having anything to give? Are we now supposing that Jef is getting some form of inf during the night, which a roleclaim prevents? Because that would be the first time I've heard it. Personally I think that if he was roleblocked/protected he would get a notice about it? Or if thats not the case, then I highly doubt that he would get info from not doing anything?? Maybe I am just misunderstanding what your writing, so please do clarify it.

Very true, not much - actually besides the suggestions as to reasons for the lack of night-kill, nothing.

For now, as said; your back on my top list: FOS TwilightBard, in the hope that it isn't just me being tired from not sleeping yet, that have influenced my reading.