Just as an out of game note: Rabbit's "hole" consists of dissertation work and PhD applications at the moment - she did mention posting would be awkward...

@pazzer & Vitek: It's a good point to wonder why Rabbit hasn't attracted more attention. However, I don't think Vitek's idea works - it falls flat if she was telling the truth about the night restriction. Also, if she stole from Rod on a night, that means the mafia got incredibly lucky and picked off a power-role at random.

Current suspects: pazzer, xyem, muttly (made a mess of D4, overall anti-town play, extremely inconsistent)
Leaning town: Rod (the role part of his claim is the truth, at least.)
Unknown: Primal, Rabbit, Vitek

This is so tricky...

Didn't change my mind quickly as I'm sure I posted earlier in the day that you and Rodzaju were no longer on my list of suspects.

Returning to my theory about the mafia:

Primal is the hand guiding Muttly through.
If Primal was in the Top 3, Muttly would struggle to avoid putting a significant vote on him at some stage.
I say significant because Muttly HAS voted Primal on & off, but Primal has never been been at serious risk of being lynched.
I am convinced that, if he had been, Muttly's vote would have disappeared in an instant.

But who is the third?
It could be Rabbit (as I have previously suggested).
I don't believe it is French.
Xyem is a possibility.
He has argued with French throughout the whole game.
I haven't seen any major slips during these exchanges though, which suggests to me that he is either REALLY careful with his posts, or is genuinely town.
Having said that, he has repeatedly stressed his own logical approach, so perhaps he IS that careful....
There is also the whole sheep thing.
Is this a security blanket?
Every time he thinks he may have made a slip, or pushed things too far, the sheep reappears & distracts us from whatever he was previously saying.
I've tried going through looking for this sort of thing, but can't find anthing definitive.
Can a second set of eyes see any evidence to confirm / refute this idea?

Anyway, I'm confident in 2 scum.
Primal & Muttly.

Vote Muttly
On the assumption that the mafia won't vote for one of their own, the whole town will need to get behind this for it to go anywhere.
Please take a close look at him & tell us what you think.

The only reason for suspicion of me you've given in this post relates to the fact that muttly keeps voting for me. That would make a sort of sense if you thought that muttly was town, but given that he's your other suspect that can't be it surely? I mean, you've got to have other reasons? =S

I'm with you on suspecting muttly, his day one unprompted softclaim is a bit weird.

But, as I have previously stated, I believe you to be the guiding hand, helping the newbie mafia.
I don't have my notes with me at the moment, but I'll go through them when I get home & go into more detail.

Yes, but your only reasons were that muttly keeps voting for me. I can't really respond properly to your reasoning when you haven't posted any. :P

Pre-post EDIT: You're at work at this time of night? <.<

Shitty shifts!
On my way home now!!

OK, having gone through my notes, my suspicion of you IS based mainly (but NOT entirely) round what looks like a very peculiar relationship with Muttly.

The 2 of you NEVER agree on ANYTHING.
He keeps voting you & then very soon afterwards unvoting.
In fact, after RVS (and excluding Orry & very recently me) he has never voted for anyone except you.
This leads me to believe that, rather than "I think you are scum", his votes were part of a pattern of what could easily be coded communication.


Post 280:
You vote Orry
#281 Muttly votes you.

#284 Primal explains suspicion of Orry as Rule 9 not broken.
#285 Muttly unvotes Primal, but doesn’t vote anyone else.

#359 You say that the game might be over by morning...
As this is impossible, given that night actions (following the day 1 example) took more than 24 hours, are you telling your scumbuddy to hurry up the lynch?
Muttly doesn’t post, so you add a bit more pressure in #372
#377 Muttly appears.
This is where he makes his amazing “I believe Orry, but am happy to lynch him anyway” comment.
The ONLY way that this makes any sense at all is if it some kind of coded message for someone.
He votes you again & casts the unfounded suspicion that you vote for the flavour of the day.

#401 you state that you are suspicous of me, but can’t explain why.
#407 Muttly unvotes you & again does not vote anyone else.
#416 Muttly names you as one of his 2 most suspicous, but does not add a vote.
#419 he votes Orry (L-1)

#463 (First post of day 4) you raise the possibility of mafia role cop.
#478 Muttly poo – poos this idea & suggests the mafia are experienced players.
Pretty transparent attempt to say “It can’t be me, I’m not experienced enough”.

I raise my 2-1 mafia theory #518, 520, 522, 532, 536

#537 & 538 you & Muttly disagree again.
#585 / 586 And again
#633 brings Muttly’s shepherd comment that turns out (according to 654) to be a little dig at a conversation you were in.

#657 – 664 The FIRST TIME you and Muttly agree on ANYTHING & it’s the fact that I look suspicious.
Because of my scumtheory, possibly.
#684 Muttly says that I’m not the most suspicous, but he can get support for a lynch.
Perhaps he is accepting the instruction that he ignored back in #401?


There are also some issues that Don't involve Muttly though:

#316 Joe expresses displeasure in response to queries about the game setup.
#318 you say “The mod is a dick”
#346 you say it is too early to comment on the setup until we know whether Orry is telling the truth.
So either 318 was an attempt to curry favour with those moaning about the setup, or you realised you had slipped up (as mafia, you knew Orry would flip town & thus was likely telling the truth.) & were now backtracking to cover this.

#490 you bring up not defending newbies anymore.
#493 you backtrack on this “it wasn’t about this game...”

Also in #346 you say that the only confirmed weird thing is Xyem’s post restriction.
How was this confirmed?

I can't counter a lot of this because it mostly seems to be finding and joining the dots that make the picture you want to make, but I feel a couple of things deserve explanation.

In post #359 I was replying directly to NFY and making a joke because the game was moving very quickly at that point. You also made a joke in the very next post: "Anyone fancy lynching Frenchie while he is asleep?

Just kidding!!!"

I could apply your logic to that post and arrive at the conclusion you were hinting to your fellow mafia. I won't though because it's stupid to read into jokes in such detail.

In #372 I honestly felt that there was no way he could be telling the truth, as did most other players.

I called Joe a dick purely to wind him up as a direct response to #316.

#346 was how I actually felt. We now know that Joe actually is a dick, unless he did something horrible to the mafia as well that we don't know about.


About 'defending newbies', do I really have to explain again?

I said it'd be stupid to RVS lynch a newbie because they'd be less likely to stick around and play in other games. If we were going to completely randomly lynch someone then I wouldn't vote for a newbie.
I have no problem voting for a newbie for being suspicious, I'm just not going to RVS them.

I never backtracked because it was never specifically about this game. I said I wasn't defending rabbit any more because what I said on the first day didn't apply any more because we weren't in RVS.

As for Xyem's post restriction, I guess he could have made it up? Perhaps I was being far too trusting there.

... are you buddying me again? >_> <_<

Rod, your case makes sense assuming both of them are mafia, but there are a lot of "This could be a hint to ______" moments. It looks like you've already made a decision and are interpretting evidence based on it...

It's a very interesting theory though... Primal hasn't been amongst my suspects at all, which is perhaps grounds to suspect him (Wiiiiine!). And Muttly's persistant voting for him on little-to-no evidence could be a drawn-out distancing process, like the theory I tried to apply to xyem vs baz on D1...

THAT is interesting. I was wondering why Muttly and xyem both made a point of dismissing the role cop idea...

Just because I wasn't as obvious as to put "Just kidding!!!" doesn't mean I was at all serious. It was purely because NFY said she'd be gone for the rest of the night soon, I was just saying 'you can't go now, the game is moving so fast!'.
I tend to let other people work out whether something's supposed to be a joke or not, evidently that's a bad idea. I'll have to start saying "Just kidding!!!" after everything. :P

Most of your post I have already addressed and wont be typing it again. As for "disappearing", did I not mention I would be gone a few days? I voted for you as currently I believe my triangle of scum theory between you, Vitek, and Rabbit to be my strongest read. Which leads me to NotFrenchYet...


I really dont see how I have been anti-town so I cant address it directly. As for making a mess of Day 4, why is sharing ideas floating in my head making a mess? Isnt the idea to get ideas out there? We all discussed for many days and I did not vote until I thought I had a firm read. Which I still think I do.

As for changing theories and generally who i might vote for, I dont take a minutes pause for changing my mind. New info presents itself and one idea appears stronger or weaker depending on both my own feelings on it and comment regarding it. For example, people mention that I thought experienced players might be mafia. A few others commented on it and altered the way i thought about it. End of story, I wont continue to push an idea I have changed my mind on based on discussion simply because it would make me appear more "town".

Really? So I come into the game clearly as a new player and RP a bit about a role that isnt exactly super common (baker) completely unprompted and doesnt make sense in any scenario you can come up with and it still appears weird? What sense would declaring i am a baker make Day 1? So the mafia would kill me instantly? What makes sense is it was a newbie mistake on my part to RP. And to take it further, what advantage could i possibly get from claiming that early?

By the by, has nobody yet identified that the game could be proven out right here with me at L3? I will bet you hands down with Vitek and Rod already voting for me (side note, NO ONE finds this suspicious in the least???), I could self vote and as long as no town voted for me I wouldnt die. Guaranteed. Think about it and I will be happy to do so as I am firm in my belief Rod an Vitek are scum.

I think I addressed everyone, a lot to read through. Let me know if I missed anything.

I do not believe you have ever explained post 377.
You also have not explained why SPF is suddenly less scummy.

As for you not dying, clearly the scum wouldn't be inclined to vote for one of their own.
I addressed this in post 723.

I have addressed the SPF voting thing in the past but will be happy to discuss the new accusation you leveled. I did not say "I believe" Orry, very nice of your to manipulate my text that way. I said,

"I dont really know why, but I tend to beleive O. I am not against lynching him if I am the last vote kind of thing, but I wouldnt pick him as my first choice. "

As I mentioned in the past, I was waffling. Further explained in post 419, which I also notice you conveniently leave out any text but explains my vote for O. I believe it was you who recently accused me of evidence manufacture. interesting that you misquote me and then present the "ONLY" option to your misquote.

Finally, as for SPF being less scummy… Because you and Vitek rocketed to the top of my scum list. Through sheer necessity of my theory involving Rabbit, he is less scummy. If you were to tell me there are 4 mafia, I would certainly have him back on my list.