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General discussion (archive)games industry crash (do you think it will happen)(69 posts)(69 posts)
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Posted April 02, 2014
Hello people, will you help me to this bat to this hours and beat it with me.

In all seriousness, do you think the AAA games industry is going to crash soon. I've been thinking about it and even suspect it might the, but the gravity of it still hasn't quite sunken in yet.

Since the release of Titan Fall an $80 multiplayer only game and even Valve announcing that they themselves are no longer interested in single player game. Plus the the decline in quality control, it seems that a second crash the like of 1985 might actually happen.

Of course this is just conjecture on my part. Do you think the games industry will actually crash in a big way and if so what affect will it have. Also if you don't think it will crash, what do you think will happen in say five years from now. These are turbulent times indeed.
Posted April 02, 2014
no. there may be some changes and fluctuation (as in all industries do as tastes change), but there will not be a crash.
Posted April 02, 2014
I don't know about an outright crash, but I do think glaring changes have to be made to sustain the viability of the AAA industry.

Games themselves I think are never going away, and there will always be indie devs and even AA devs ready to step up and do things in a leaner and more profitable manner.

I DO think that eventually people will get tired of being treated like crap by the big pubs in some cases, and maybe what will happen will be more akin to what happened to the music industry, where the big labels are all slowly dying, due to lack of innovations and an antiquated business model.
Posted April 02, 2014
You understand that both things you mentioned are to blame on gamers worldwide, yes? People should not pre-order 80 USD titles because that sends a signal that it is ok and even profitable to do it, and it is no surprise Valve finally admitted to themselves most of their customers do not care about the Half-Life universe as much as they are putting hundreds of hours into online shooters like Counter-Strike Global Offensive and Team Fortress 2. Hats are more important than stories.

I don't get why you think Quality Assurance has gotten worse. It has always been poor overall, spectacularly unfinished and unacceptable releases like Ride To Hell are hardly a sign of the times but an extreme exception to the normal level of mediocrity.

The "Video game industry" in the 80's was very different from the one we have today. For example, a large part of it was made up of arcade machines with very narrow profit margins. It was also a very young industry that hadn't fully worked out how things should be made and how to make money of it. It began in the hands of a few companies who made all the hardware as well as the software, but eventually they lost their sort of monopoly and suddenly they were making a lot less money than they did in the beginning. Today's game industry is a much more solid and worked out business that can deal with the twists and turns when new technology comes along or new laws are passed.

Today, with so much talent within the industry and on the indie scene, I think game development can survive or rebuild itself in no time no matter what could possibly happen.
Posted April 02, 2014
Unless all consumers collectively decide not to buy videogames anymore I won't see a crash happening.
Posted April 02, 2014
No, the possibility of a crash is no longer there. We have a plethora of electronic devices now to play on, where there used to be only a few mostly identical.
Posted April 02, 2014
Individual games are close to counting profits in the billions and your talking about a crash? What on earth are you basing this on?

Not bashing you (although it will seem like it), but sometimes guys on this forum come up with some batshit stuff...
Posted April 02, 2014
I feel I need to speak up for QA testers. QA teams often find and detail the many problems with a game. Management or whoever decides to release anyway.

Mind you this is how things work nowadays. The released version is more like an early beta than version 1.0. Some companies will then spend years fixing the bugs and refining gameplay. Other companies will just leave it as is.
Posted April 02, 2014
As long as there are 12-16 year old kids (which most games are targeted at these days anyway) who are willing to buy a recycled CoD, Assassin's Creed, Battlefield, pay 15$/€ for map packs, 20-40 dollars for a 2h tech demo or any other mindless shooter/RPG then nothing will happen.

Back in the days Mario developer couldn't even release the game since no company was interested in something silly like that. Now they are making billions of dollars with recycled content. Hell the Ubisoft CEO said "we would be stupid not to release a new AC game every year since people keep buying it".
Post edited April 02, 2014 by Zurvan7
Posted April 02, 2014
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Magmarock: In all seriousness, do you think the AAA games industry is going to crash soon. I've been thinking about it and even suspect it might the, but the gravity of it still hasn't quite sunken in yet.
No, for that to happen people would have to magically evolve into sentient beings and stop throwing money at EA via preorders/DLC/microtransactions etc and let the stock sink so low that even summer 2012 will look good in comparison. Once EA has fallen for good, the other AAA companies will either get their act together and start respecting their customers more or they'll get even more greedy and try to take the piece of the pie EA left over. If they did that, they would sink as well because in this speculative scenario customers are now sentient. Result: RIP AAA gaming industry.
But like I said, this won't happen. Someone out there keeps buying the 'new' FIFA's and crap, too many someones actually.
Posted April 02, 2014
I don't think the entire industry will crash (like it did in the 80s) - the market for games has grown a lot since then, the demand won't go away. There are also lots more companies producing games now, not to mention indie developers.

I do expect some major changes in the future though. The gaming industry has always been extremely volatile, with companies looking strong in the past, but then going into bankruptcy just a few years later - THQ and Atari are recent examples. With the advent of a new console generation, producing AAA titles is becoming even more expensive. This increases the risk of producing such games, which is generally too high already (as can be seen on an unhealty reliance on sequels and established IPs as opposed to original content).

There is also an uncomfortably large number of Indie developers who earn much less with their games than they expected or hoped for, so that part of the market isn't looking particularly healthy as well at the moment.
Post edited April 02, 2014 by Psyringe
Posted April 02, 2014
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Sufyan: You understand that both things you mentioned are to blame on gamers worldwide, yes? People should not pre-order 80 USD titles because that sends a signal that it is ok and even profitable to do it, and it is no surprise Valve finally admitted to themselves most of their customers do not care about the Half-Life universe as much as they are putting hundreds of hours into online shooters like Counter-Strike Global Offensive and Team Fortress 2. Hats are more important than stories.

I don't get why you think Quality Assurance has gotten worse. It has always been poor overall, spectacularly unfinished and unacceptable releases like Ride To Hell are hardly a sign of the times but an extreme exception to the normal level of mediocrity.

The "Video game industry" in the 80's was very different from the one we have today. For example, a large part of it was made up of arcade machines with very narrow profit margins. It was also a very young industry that hadn't fully worked out how things should be made and how to make money of it. It began in the hands of a few companies who made all the hardware as well as the software, but eventually they lost their sort of monopoly and suddenly they were making a lot less money than they did in the beginning. Today's game industry is a much more solid and worked out business that can deal with the twists and turns when new technology comes along or new laws are passed.

Today, with so much talent within the industry and on the indie scene, I think game development can survive or rebuild itself in no time no matter what could possibly happen.
I don't really agree with this,
While I understand that gamers should be more vigilant with their money, I wouldn't say they are to blame, at least not 100%

Quality assurance has defiantly been on the decline. You could say that it's the consumers job to be informed, but it's not really the consumers job to check such things. Also with places like IGN giving such intrust worthy reviews, simply finding the right information about a game can be a chore. I think this is all going to back fire in a big way.

Finlay while the industry might be different from what it was in the 80s the conditions that caused the crash are starting to reappear. An over abundance of poor quality products with no reliable information to inform you as to what you should buy. The market was saturated with horrible games games and no way on knowing the good from the bad. That's kind of where we are now if you look at Steam.
Posted April 02, 2014
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Magmarock: The market was saturated with horrible games games and no way on knowing the good from the bad.
That has always been the case anyway (Sturgeons Law...) and it is subjective anyway.
Posted April 02, 2014
I don't think it'll crash but I think the prices of new, AAA titles is close to the tipping point of freezing out some potential customers. That said, if someone pays $80 for a game, it's still more profitable that 2 people paying $35.

One thing is for sure, the industry talent doesn't just lie with the programmers and developers but also financial analysts and marketing/research specialists. Of course, there is a possibility that their forecasts prove over-inflated but so much data is collected from gamers that there are accurate models for each target audience group....i.e. age, disposable income, free-time etc..

Without having any evidence to back this up; I also think that games are going to evolve significantly after the PS4, XBox One generation which could stimulate the industry significantly. IMO, the new consoles leave me feeling a bit apathetic and not the least tempted.
Posted April 02, 2014
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amok: no. there may be some changes and fluctuation (as in all industries do as tastes change), but there will not be a crash.
I don't know about that. Considering all the money being spent on bullshit games without any particular quality, I'm not sure how this can end any other way than a crash.

I predict that the stronger companies will be fine, but the ones like EA that are basically pushing bullshit will have to find a new strategy, or go out of business. But, I think the larger studios like EA will be in less dire of a position than some of the smaller studios.
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General discussion (archive)games industry crash (do you think it will happen)(69 posts)(69 posts)
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