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I just hope November comes and goes soon.
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Liberty: There are already 2012 votes available. We can compare early voting in Ohio in 2012 compared to 2008. The Rs are way up. The Ds are way down in absentees. This is not for just one county but all of them.
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htown1980: Can you post a link please?
Here you go. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

The cutoff for absentee ballots is ending soon. We can already see much more of a turn-out for R than for D compared to 2008. One example is Franklin county which went for Obama by 21 points, the Ds are trailing there by 6000 requests. That's a huge swing.

We are making some assumptions however. We are assuming Ds will vote D and Rs will vote R this election cycle.

We're also seeing a very large difference of energy on the ground in Ohio. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AA6qqNat8e0&feature=player_embedded

This is why when I saw the debate, my thought is that their energy level is being animated by their internal polling.
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tangledblue11: ...Romney has already shown he means business. Picking Paul Ryan - THE debt, deficit and economics guy in congress - shows that Romney is serious about fixing problems.
Only problems such as "the rich are not rich enough".
enough about the tax as most of is said is bullshit.


Tax cuts do not raise income, they do not lower it.... they do something. raising taxes do something too
might be good might be bad.

it is not a simple solution.


there a billions of factors in play here (literally billions) It is extremely probable that tax revenue will go up if you lower taxes when taxes are high, it is also probable that if taxes are very low rising them will increase your income.


Sweden had high taxes. lowering them a bit stimulated the economy and might have increased the income.

you can't use that model for usa which is very very different country and has already much lower taxes (and i don't think it ever had as high as Sweden)

USA population pays very low taxes at them. Don't remember the percentage but a quite huge number of people don't pay tax at all. Rich people don't pay high tax either and they are most often biggest contributors to the tax.

Raising taxes would be most sensible idea at this moment for USA. It might not work (way too many factors) but comparing it to sweden is just silly. two different situations.
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HGiles: @hedwards, et. al - The Laffer curve is Economics 101, guys. Seriously, you need to read up on this kind of thing before trying to have a debate about taxes.
The laffer curve doesn't say lowering taxes is always the right solution. There's an optimal tax point and everything apart from that is either too low or too high.

Now the problem is to figure on which point america is currently, rising taxes could just be as good a solution as lowering them.
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HGiles: @hedwards, et. al - The Laffer curve is Economics 101, guys. Seriously, you need to read up on this kind of thing before trying to have a debate about taxes.
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WBGhiro: The laffer curve doesn't say lowering taxes is always the right solution. There's an optimal tax point and everything apart from that is either too low or too high.

Now the problem is to figure on which point america is currently, rising taxes could just be as good a solution as lowering them.
People like Romney are often the greatest contributor to the tax in a developed world.

he paid 13% ?

definitely below the curve.
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WBGhiro: The laffer curve doesn't say lowering taxes is always the right solution. There's an optimal tax point and everything apart from that is either too low or too high.

Now the problem is to figure on which point america is currently, rising taxes could just be as good a solution as lowering them.
True that. And thank god both Romney and obama agree that the best thing during the recession is to start with lowering the taxes. Should work, but as lukaszthegreat says, many factors decide. With lower taxes companies will afford to hire more people, more people will have more money in their pockets to spend more, that should end up with higher tax revenue and slowing down the recession in short term. At least it should :P
Post edited October 04, 2012 by keeveek
i stopped caring about politics when numberous items i voted for were deemed unconstitutional or having the courts over-turn something voted in. having little voter turn-out, then having people i voted for recalled and having to go vote again because of fucking people who didnt bother to care in the first place.

election after election of bullshit and not being counted.

im over it.
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tangledblue11: Anyone watch the first US presidential debate tonight? What did you think? I've been a political junky for well over a decade now and I have never seen such a one-sided presidential show down. I'm curious to know how others reacted.
One-sided if you call all of Romney's blatant lies as victories.

(although, they just may be since here's a sample of what CNN said regarding one of his statements: True, but misleading.)
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lukaszthegreat: Sweden had high taxes. lowering them a bit stimulated the economy and might have increased the income.

you can't use that model for usa which is very very different country and has already much lower taxes (and i don't think it ever had as high as Sweden)
This is not the point. As you said, you should look at the economy and all factors combined.
Sweden could afford taxes high as that because people were considerably wealthier than in other countries. What is a high taxation in one country isn't in the others. But in the long term, businesses started to leave Sweden because of the tax burden, so lowering the taxes was a good thing to do.

USA is now in the time where more and more businesses outsource to other countries. Lowering the taxes is a good way to bring them back.
I'd say the taxes in USA are too high for the moment US economy is right now. But this is just layman talking.

I'd like to hear more from tangledblue11 about his views on that matter
Post edited October 04, 2012 by keeveek
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lukaszthegreat: Sweden had high taxes. lowering them a bit stimulated the economy and might have increased the income.

you can't use that model for usa which is very very different country and has already much lower taxes (and i don't think it ever had as high as Sweden)
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keeveek: This is not the point. As you said, you should look at the economy and all factors combined.
Sweden could afford taxes high as that because people were considerably wealthier than in other countries. What is a high taxation in one country isn't in the others. But in the long term, businesses started to leave Sweden because of the tax burden, so lowering the taxes was a good thing to do.

USA is now in the time where more and more businesses outsource to other countries. Lowering the taxes is a good way to bring them back.
I'd say the taxes in USA are too high for the moment US economy is right now. But this is just layman talking.

I'd like to hear more from tangledblue11 about his views on that matter
tax rate is like 15-25 percent for main source of income of the government. thats really low. don't look at margins as they are just the maximum you will pay.

Romney paid 13% tax. and you want to make him pay even less?

Furthermore there is apparently a figure of almost 50% people not paying federal tax at all. doubt it is accurate but i presume it is exaggeration of quite big true figure


some tax rates
highest federal: 35%
capital gains: 15%
highest sale tax: 11% most around 7-8%

just few top, most commonly paid. and you want to lower them too? and there are so so many rules giving you tax breaks....

there is really nowhere to go except up
Nowadays I vote only for the principle that if you live in a Democracy it's your goddamned duty to vote if you can.

Otherwise it makes little difference because all politicians now seem to believe in the same economic theory. They always do the same things just by different degrees.
Why the heck can't politicians give me some real alternatives to choose from?

I heard Romney came out best in the debate but how much does it matter? Aren't there going to be more debates?
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Liberty: There are already 2012 votes available. We can compare early voting in Ohio in 2012 compared to 2008. The Rs are way up. The Ds are way down in absentees. This is not for just one county but all of them.
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htown1980: Can you post a link please?
Now the story of Ohio absentee trends are becoming noticed by news writers. http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-shocker-gop-closes-early-voting-gap-boosting-romney/article/2509838#.UG4bqZjA-1k

If those trends are accurate, we're looking at better R performance than in 2004. Ohio tends to be more uphill for R than a state like Florida. If Obama loses Ohio and Florida, he is going to lose Virginia (and NC and IN aren't even considered competitive at this point). That puts Romney over 270.
To whomever thinks taxes in the US are low right now: do you think that a 50% tax burden on small business is low? I think people are confusing "low taxes" with "low effective tax rates." Taxes are extremely high in the US and we're ranked second (behind Japan) for having the least competitive tax environment in the world.

What Romney is suggesting is EXACTLY what the US needs. Stop letting people/companies who are Obama donors (like GE, who paid $0 in fed tax on $16 BILLION in profits) get away with paying 0% in taxes while my business has to pay anywhere from 42% to 50% every single year. It's stupid.

We need to lower the rates for everyone and get rid of the deductions that let companies like GE get of the hook. It is incontrovertible that more people paying taxes at a lower rate is much more effective for tax revenue than having less people pay at a higher rate. It's not even basic econ it's just common sense.
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Tarm: I heard Romney came out best in the debate but how much does it matter? Aren't there going to be more debates?
It matters greatly. Almost 70 million people watched the debate and got to see the real Obama and the real Mitt Romney.

I hope it's a little relieving to you that your opinions (and your vote) do matter. I know it doesn't always feel like it but this constitutional republic is the greatest government created in all of human history. It's sloppy; at times it's frustrating and feels like it's broken or useless. This is exactly how it was planned to function. A government that can't do whatever it wants whenever it wants can't subject its force upon you as governments have been so wont to do for all of human existence.