Posted July 25, 2013
Lifthrasil: snip...
If he wasn't innocent he wouldn't have been nightkilled. The mafia won't kill one of their own. What we don't know is his exact role. But we know he was town, proven by the simple fact that he was killed by the scum at night.
However, that you are trying to construct a suspicion out of a simple fact of the game makes you look a bit dubious yourself, don't you think?
I was more alluding to the fact that instead of going - 'Where the f*ck is his alignment??' the same as everyone else, you were just handily ignoring the fact it hadn't appeared. Yeah, and Serial killers, Vigilantes etc etc, as Jmich pointed out.... If he wasn't innocent he wouldn't have been nightkilled. The mafia won't kill one of their own. What we don't know is his exact role. But we know he was town, proven by the simple fact that he was killed by the scum at night.
However, that you are trying to construct a suspicion out of a simple fact of the game makes you look a bit dubious yourself, don't you think?
As always at the beginning of a new day, the very first thing we should be reviewing are the cold hard facts. All else is conjecture, and should be discarded at the outset. It will shape your thoughts as the day goes on, but here is the reality so far.
Lynched - N0x0ss. Flipped TOWN - Lone Mason (also curious as how to this would work?!!!).
Bandwagon - in order of voting...
SirPrimalForm
CSPVG
Robbeasy
TwisterBE
P1na
Quadralien
Lifthrasil
Night Killed - P1na. NO ALIGNMENT given.
So - now onto the conjecture.....
Main source of information is to analyse the Bandwagon - there are a number of theories, but we can safely assume (percentage wise) that there is at least one Scum on that wagon, possibly two.
So - Hammerer was Lifthrasil. Would Scum be obvious and Hammer first day? Its a whole load of WIFOM, but I would say its a possibility - Lifthrasil is an inexperienced player, and could have got eager. Note the lengthy reasons why hammered when doing it.
Wagon Starter - SirPrimalForm. Later in the game, I would say this carries a lot more weight, but on first day I think this is diluted. It still has significance, and is worthy of scrutiny, so lets do that. Way back in post 71 was N0x0ss voted for by SPF, using a post by Joe to make his point for him, which is interesting - a good scum tactic that. Use someone elses point to vote for someone, then when they flip Town you can point and say 'well i was just agreeing with X, so you should be looking at them'....
Second on Wagon - CSPVG. Only after Liftharasil voted for N0x0ss the first time (post 115). Where has that name popped up before...?..;)...
CSPVG kept it short and sweet - post 141. Could be seen as a pressure vote, or a smooth scum vote to just hop on without much fuss.
Third on Wagon - ME!. I get scum points for hopping on the wagon immediately after CSPVG - a scum tactic is to wait for a viable wagon, then to jump on it - N0x0ss at that point was already on 3 votes, so it could be said I was jumping on the first good bandwagon that got rolling. In my favour though is that I have outlined a perfectly good reason for voting (post 142) - in fact if i remember correctly it was the final post of many that I thought anti-town by N0x0ss that pushed me to vote for him.
Also - I unvoted N0x0ss in post 162 - I felt the day had a long time to go and wanted to get as much info out of it as possible, so it was removing any slight chance of a speed lynch (assuming a 3 scum ratio). revoted in post 210 after a reread where I noted another slip from N0x0ss that stood right out - it was simply too big to ignore. I felt happy at that point that he was definitely scum.
Next up was deadline announcement - significant, as it gives scum the time by which they have to get a bandwagon completed. Votes after deadline announcement I ALWAYS think carry a little more weight than those before..
Fourth on - TwisterBE. Reason being he was also on 3 votes at time. deadline announcent may have pushed him to vote. Not a great reason for voting for someone - not actually thinking they are necessarily Scum, but voting for them to save your own skin....
Point of interest - SPF does a revote and joky megavote of N0x0ss in post 298 - why??
Fifth on - P1na....we had a big vote split at this point. So voting could have gone either way, and this vote carried a lot of weight. P1na has since been NK'd, so we know he ain't Mafia, but we have to keep in mind he could have easily been a different outsider role. P1na DOES mention he has the most significant vote (post 391).
Last two votes are less than 24 hours before deadline.
Sixth on - Quadralien. Reason stated was solely to get a lynch before deadline. Not a good reason at all in my book, but slightly forgivable given the time remaining. Could easily be a scum hopping on to make sure, although logically a scum would be just as happy with a no-lynch scenario...
So - there you go.
From this, my main suspects at moment are TwisterBE, SPF , and Quadralien. Two for dodgy reasons for voting, and SPF for the unnecessary revote and megavote joke - almost like he was reminding all of the lovely bandwagon he had started...