Matruchus: As long as the selling data is going to be like for Witcher 2: sold in the same time
- gog 40.000 copies,
- steam 200.000 copies,
- all the others together 10.000
At the moment recheable statistics show following sales for Witcher 2: 80% Steam, 14% Gog all the other together 6%.
How can anything change really if the sales statistics are like thet for most games.
The Witcher 2, being developed by "the gog people", sold exceptionally well on gog.com if you compare the percentages of sale with Steam's.
What we're usually looking at for PC games which still actually make an effort at alternative distribution methods is something like 90 to 95% Steam, 5 to 10% other distribution methods. That's the reality of the situation. Who's to blame? Naturally, PC gamers.
We can straight up forget about Chris Taylor's prophecy... I've just read up on it. Chris Taylor's words about Steam "loosing their lead in five years' time" are now
more than three years old to begin with. Back then, the hope was still alive I guess. We're heading nowhere in the direction he describes.
Ask me the question about where they are in the market five years from now: I think it's gonna shift. I think the playing field's gonna level out. Because exclusive content drives it. I mean once upon a time we had a Sega console. There was a company called Atari that had a big market position. It changes and it shifts based on the way the company continues to evolve and interact with its customers, the service it delivers.
I think that now we're seeing so many new players come, they have to come to the market with their first party games. And if they deliver really outstanding games, the platform follows.
What's the sitiuation today instead? ALL of the "new players" are on Steam, ALL of them make 90 to 100% of their sales via Steam. NONE of them has even tried to establish their own distribution platform because they already know that PC players have become too stupid and unflexible to try something new, and of course the players "want all their games in one place". The Humble Store as the only "competitor" worth mentioning has become a used car salesman in the meantime, making their money as a Steam key reseller. Steam has loads and loads and loads of "exclusive content" without having to force it in any way, because developers decide that distributing via Steam is enough on the one hand, and because Early Access pretty much means timed exclusivity on the other hand.
There is no, absolutely no competition on the horizon for Steam.