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General discussion (archive)2014 DRM-Free Summer Sale: Day 16(4535 posts)(4535 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted June 28, 2014
With 700+ games discounted up to 90% off, daily special Bundle Deals, a constant stream of exciting Flash Sales, and some fantastic surprise giveaways, we launch into the season of gaming joy!

The biggest celebration of DRM-Free gaming this season is right now, right here on GOG.com! It's warm and nice outside, the summer draws ever closer, so let's make sure it's full of fantastic games. There's no one good way to spend your summer, but we know well that gaming can make every single one of them better. So, whether you plan to stay inside, hike into the wilderness, or take a boat into the calm sea, we'll make sure your laptop is filled with great DRM-Free games you can enjoy anytime, anywhere. To that end, we're holding our [url=http://www.gog.com]2014 DRM-Free Summer Sale!

Each day we'll present you with at least two special Bundle Deals with a selection of of great classics and indies available up to 90% off! As usual, you'll be able to buy just selected titles out of the bundle with a slightly lower discount, or complete your collection with just the ones you're missing, retaining the higher discount rate. Let's take a look at our offers for today, shall we?

Today, we seriously mix things up to bring you both lighthearted comedy as well as dark and morbid horror. The Legacy of Kain Saga is the Full House of gaming with its family themes and colorful presentation. Across four episodes ironically titled Soul Reaver, Soul Reaver 2, Blood Omen 2, and Defiance the series explores the relation between Kain, a authoritative father with obvious god complex, and Raziel, his rebellious son with questionable fashion sense. The story also includes many of their relatives from extended family, that cannot help but to make a mess in their imaginary homeland called Nosgoth. Hilarity ensues! All this cheerful moments for only $5.96 (that's 75% off!). The other of our offers today, is bound to chill the blood in your veins with its terrifying setting alone. The Deponia Complete Trilogy takes place on a distant planet. A planet, that long ago must have been not so different from our own Earth. Yet now, it is a grim and dark place that suffered a tragic environmental disaster. The surface of the planet is now completely covered with waste. Toxic rain flushes the pollution deep into the ground, poisoning it and making the land barren. Way above, there's the remaining enclave of civilization, housing the remnant of the human race. Now imagine one of them, a defenseless girl, falls down to the toxic junkyard below. Even though she doesn't die instantly poisoned with every imaginable toxin, her future looks grim. The wasteland is filled with danger, and soon she'll find out that she is not alone among the towering piles of garbage. What strange mutated monsters could have survived in such conditions? And what do they eat? The horror! All the thrills for just $11.97 (that's 80% off!). There you have it, a mix of laughter and cries of despair to fill your weekend with gripping gaming. Or did we overdo the mixing?

On top of that, almost all of our catalog has been discounted by up to 50%. On top of that, our front page is overflowing with excellent Flash Sales on single games. You can grab them up to 90% as well, but don't take to long, as they come and go pretty fast! Why don't you head out to GOG.com front page, and see what's happening right NOW!
Posted June 27, 2014
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Getcomposted: On an aside, let me pose you a brainteaser. It's an oldie, but it's a goodie.
A rejuvenated oldie as I've seen renewed attention in several blogs and in the Scientific American magazine. It was portrayed in the movie 21 (2008).
Posted June 27, 2014
Ah, the new bundles are up. I've got the 1st Two Worlds game on GOG but haven't played it yet. The second one is going for $3.99 in bundle which probably isn't bad if the game is good enough but I've heard nothing but good about this game series so that's probably fair. I told myself that I have got enough games this sale promo so far, and way too many backlogged RPGs though and to stay strong and fight it off. :) Now today it shows up in the promo and that tempting feeling is there. But... Bundlestars stole the thunder as they are offering the Steam version right now for $2 - http://www.bundlestars.com/store/two-worlds2/ Of course, I don't want to get that on Steam, so instead of finding a moment of weakness and splurging on either store, it's now much easier to pass up for now knowing it's a better deal somewhere else and that if I wait it out GOG will have it on sale for $1.99 in the future too! That's my logic anyway and I'm sticking too it! ;)

Having said that though... how do those who have played Two Worlds II think it stacks up against the multitude of other RPGs in the GOG shop? Soooo many RPGs... so little time... :)

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Getcomposted: I got all the bundles I wanted on the all bundle day, but now...
That Settlers bundle does look interesting... :)
I splurged for The Settlers bundle on the 18th because I own Heritage of the Kings on DVD and think it is a totally awesome game and everyone who likes The Settlers series seems to think Heritage of the Kings either sucks, or that it is the worst game in the series. My logic was that if everyone ranks the other games in the series higher, and I like the game, the other games are possibly even better so why not... :)
Post edited June 27, 2014 by skeletonbow
Posted June 27, 2014
Good no, week-end madness bonus super-duper sale stuff yet....I may get by today without a purchase ... (ok, not likely but maybe just 1 or 2 today). I hate that I will miss the final day of the sale out of town without a PC... but vacations are nice too....good for GOG sale recovery!
Posted June 27, 2014
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EuroMIX: I also feel slightly bad because I don't know how dev's are paid through GOG. Is it a percentage of the sale, including any discounts?
Would you have bought the game if it weren't in a sale? If your answer is no then no matter the percentage that the dev gets it is still more since otherwise you would not have bought it.

When I buy games on a heavy discount and end up really enjoying them, then feeling guilty for buying it at a discount price I wait for the next sale and buy that game and gift it to a friend (Settlers3, Skyrim, Civ5, BL2).
Posted June 27, 2014
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will107777: oh man, this is completely off topic, bit I hate that brain teaser question. I have a degree in mathematics...i know it has become "accepted" the correct answer is to always switch, which in my opinion is one of the biggest misconceptions of statistics out there today. The correct answer is there is a 50/50 shot, end of story, if it is assumed that no matter what your first pick is the host will show you a goat. The choice was never 3, it was 2...it is a manipulation of statistics to conclude the simple fact you were asked to chose from 3, but then were asked to chose from 2, that the statistics somehow change if you were just originally asked to chose from 2. You cannot use the probability of a previous choice to determine the new. It like if I have a coin and say if I flip it twice, what's the chance I get two heads? Answer is .25. But if I flip once and get heads, and ask if I flip it once more what are the chances of heads, is 50/50...the fact that the first flip was heads does not change the fact that each individual flip is 50/50.

end rant. Now, whatcha all think of these sales? Pretty awesome
OK, here's the reasoning. The odds of the first choice are: 2/3 of getting a goat and 1/3 of getting the car.
Going by the odds, you're more likely (2/3) to choose a goat on that first choice.
Now, given that you do choose a goat the first time, the other doors will contain the car and the other goat.

With me so far?

The gameshow host knows exactly what is behind each door. He opens a door to reveal the other goat. Since he has revealed the other goat, the only door left unchosen is the door with the car.
Your chosen door with the goat had the odds of 2/3 of choosing the goat.
Because you have the goat, 2/3 times that you switch you will get the car as that is the only door left.

The only time switching will get you a goat is if you had chosen the car in the first place, which had the odds of 1/3!

So, unfortunately, you're wrong about the odds of the second choice being 50/50. The reason being that an external factor of the gameshow host knowing and removing the second goat.

Does that make sense to you? I'm not being sarcastic or anything, I just hope I made the reasoning good enough to follow.
Posted June 27, 2014
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TrevorWilliams: For the first time in several days, it looks like I'll be able to resist the two featured bundles. My credit card says "whew".
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Getcomposted: I got all the bundles I wanted on the all bundle day, but now...
That Settlers bundle does look interesting... :)
Yeah, I've somehow avoided ever playing a Settlers game, even though they look like something I'd enjoy. I wish at least one of them was a buck or so so I could sample it. Maybe Steam has a demo. Hold on, be right back. Steam doesn't even have these older parts of the franchise, but there are demos out there on ubi and other legit sites. Downloading Settlers 2 demo now.....
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Russonc: Good no, week-end madness bonus super-duper sale stuff yet....I may get by today without a purchase ... (ok, not likely but maybe just 1 or 2 today). I hate that I will miss the final day of the sale out of town without a PC... but vacations are nice too....good for GOG sale recovery!
No smartphone? GOG purchases happen very easily on my old iphone, unfortunately.
Post edited June 27, 2014 by TrevorWilliams
Posted June 27, 2014
I know that's the reasoning behind its always better to switch, but it fails because it takes the stats from the original choice into account when making the second. Said another way, say same scenario, 3 doors, but BEFORE you pick I tell you door 3 is a goat...i assume all would agree that when you now chose between door 1 and 2 it is 50/50. That doesn't change if at first I picked door 1 and then told door 3 was a goat. In all scenarios in which you first pick 1 door of 3 there will be a door you didn't pick with a goat, 100% of the time...the host revealing this to you tells you nothing, other than the car is behind one of the two remaining doors.

so said another way, say I flip a coin and its heads. Would you give me 2:1 odds if I wanted to bet you the next flip would be heads? You shouldn't, because each individual flip is 50/50.

statistics debates...they should make a game like that.
Posted June 27, 2014
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Getcomposted: Good no, week-end madness bonus super-duper sale stuff yet....I may get by today without a purchase ... (ok, not likely but maybe just 1 or 2 today). I hate that I will miss the final day of the sale out of town without a PC... but vacations are nice too....good for GOG sale recovery!
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TrevorWilliams: No smartphone? GOG purchases happen very easily on my old iphone, unfortunately.
I am a hold out....dumb phone only!! (If I was really, really desperate I could find a way..... I am just hoping I am not...I really only want to see what's up with Banished ... I should just buy it for $10 and not worry about it anymore!)
-- sale addictions! hehe
Post edited June 27, 2014 by Russonc
Posted June 27, 2014
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will107777: I know that's the reasoning behind its always better to switch, but it fails because it takes the stats from the original choice into account when making the second. Said another way, say same scenario, 3 doors, but BEFORE you pick I tell you door 3 is a goat...i assume all would agree that when you now chose between door 1 and 2 it is 50/50. That doesn't change if at first I picked door 1 and then told door 3 was a goat. In all scenarios in which you first pick 1 door of 3 there will be a door you didn't pick with a goat, 100% of the time...the host revealing this to you tells you nothing, other than the car is behind one of the two remaining doors.

so said another way, say I flip a coin and its heads. Would you give me 2:1 odds if I wanted to bet you the next flip would be heads? You shouldn't, because each individual flip is 50/50.

statistics debates...they should make a game like that.
In RL when people do the experiment, 2/3 switching will get the car. For me, if statistics can't reflect real life results, then there's something new to be described with statistics.
Post edited June 27, 2014 by Getcomposted
Posted June 27, 2014
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Russonc: I really only want to see what's up with Banished ... I should just buy it for $10 and not worry about it anymore!)
Unwritten sales rule - game that is on discount outside daily deal or flash sale buy only on the last day of sale :) Then you are sure that it will not get better discount later.
Posted June 27, 2014
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will107777: I know that's the reasoning behind its always better to switch, but it fails because it takes the stats from the original choice into account when making the second. Said another way, say same scenario, 3 doors, but BEFORE you pick I tell you door 3 is a goat...i assume all would agree that when you now chose between door 1 and 2 it is 50/50. That doesn't change if at first I picked door 1 and then told door 3 was a goat. In all scenarios in which you first pick 1 door of 3 there will be a door you didn't pick with a goat, 100% of the time...the host revealing this to you tells you nothing, other than the car is behind one of the two remaining doors.

so said another way, say I flip a coin and its heads. Would you give me 2:1 odds if I wanted to bet you the next flip would be heads? You shouldn't, because each individual flip is 50/50.

statistics debates...they should make a game like that.
It's not equivalent. Grant me a three sided coin. Two sides are marked with Xs and one with an O. Chance of getting the O is 1/3. Chance of an X is 2/3. Now, back to your example. I flip and get an X. Chances of getting an X and O the next flip are exactly the same as the first, just as in your regular coin flip example.

With the game show the setup is different. To equate to the coin. The goal is to get an O. I flip the three sided coin but do not look at it. An observer looks at the coin and notes my flip. (This is equivalent to choosing the door in the game show.) Observer then tells me, one of the other sides has an X on it. This is what you noted above, there will always be an X on one of the other sides. (What changes is whether there are 1 or 2 Xs.)

The observer then crosses out the X side he told me about and magically flattens the coin into 2 sides. The side I chose is still face up. The observer tells me I can either keep my choice or flip the coin over, switching to the remaining side.

Now the math works out that switching gets the O and wins 2/3 times.

Now regardless of whether or not you work through the probabilities and math, I've outlined the difference in setup between the Monty Hall problem and your coin flipping example. It's apples and oranges. You're not re-randomizing by redistributing the goats and cars behind the doors the way you re-randomize the results when flipping a coin.
Post edited June 27, 2014 by alecej
Posted June 27, 2014
I think we will have to agree to disagree. Again, the problem with the setup is you are treating the choice in regards to three choices, when in reality, there are two. That is how the computer model showed that 2/3 of the time switching nets you a win (I've seen the model that produces the result). Its because it starts with the premise there are 3 choices. Under the logic you present, if I revealed one of the goats before you initially picked, the chances of you getting the car would decrease, which is incorrect. The model fails because you are using a base of 3 choices when in reality there is two...there never was a 3 sided coin, its only really 2.

ok ill stop, I'm sure that the others are annoyed to the nth degree at this point with our discussion, but thanks for the debate!
Posted June 27, 2014
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will107777: I know that's the reasoning behind its always better to switch, but it fails because it takes the stats from the original choice into account when making the second. Said another way, say same scenario, 3 doors, but BEFORE you pick I tell you door 3 is a goat...i assume all would agree that when you now chose between door 1 and 2 it is 50/50. That doesn't change if at first I picked door 1 and then told door 3 was a goat. In all scenarios in which you first pick 1 door of 3 there will be a door you didn't pick with a goat, 100% of the time...the host revealing this to you tells you nothing, other than the car is behind one of the two remaining doors.

so said another way, say I flip a coin and its heads. Would you give me 2:1 odds if I wanted to bet you the next flip would be heads? You shouldn't, because each individual flip is 50/50.

statistics debates...they should make a game like that.
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Getcomposted: In RL when people do the experiment, 2/3 switching will get the car. For me, if statistics can't reflect real life results, then there's something new to be described with statistics.
I think the statistics are fine here. In this case, there's conditional probability at play, which causes this somewhat puzzling situation.

On initial selection of one of the three the doors, (let's call them A, B, and C), let's say you chose door A. So the probability of having correctly chosen (if you want the car) is:
P(A) = 1/3
P(not A) = 2/3

Note that P(not A) = P(B) + P(C), since if the car's not in A, then it must be in B or C.

Now, the host opens one of the doors you didn't choose. However, the host has to choose a door that doesn't contain the prize. So, assuming he opens door C, it would have to reveal a goat, making P(C) = 0.

Recalling that P(not A) = 2/3, and P(not A) = P(B) + P(C), we can do some substitution of values:
P(not A) = P(B) + P(C)
2/3 = P(B) + 0
P(B) = 2/3

So ultimately P(B) becomes the more attractive choice, and you should switch.

It can help a little if it's imagined on a much grander scale, too: let's say there were 1,000,000 doors, and you chose one. The probability that you chose correctly is tiny. The host proceeds to open 999,998 doors, revealing them all to contain goats. You're left with the choice between the door you originally chose, or the only other door still closed. The fact that all those doors were opened after you chose doesn't change the fact that you were originally picking from 1,000,000 closed doors, and probably chose wrong (so switching would benefit you). In fact, if rather than opening all those doors, the host instead asked if you wanted to change your choice from your single door to all 999,999 of the doors you didn't choose, it would yield the same probabilities of winning if you chose to switch.

On the other hand, if any door was opened before any initial choice could be made the situation would be quite different. The probabilities would be evenly distributed among the other doors as expected - because your initial choice would now be affected by the revelation that the opened door contains a goat, basically eliminating it from the pool of available doors.

But I'm sure disagreement will still ensue. I feel like this is a much divided issue, hahaha...
Post edited June 27, 2014 by expopower
Posted June 27, 2014
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will107777: I think we will have to agree to disagree. Again, the problem with the setup is you are treating the choice in regards to three choices, when in reality, there are two. That is how the computer model showed that 2/3 of the time switching nets you a win (I've seen the model that produces the result). Its because it starts with the premise there are 3 choices. Under the logic you present, if I revealed one of the goats before you initially picked, the chances of you getting the car would decrease, which is incorrect. The model fails because you are using a base of 3 choices when in reality there is two...there never was a 3 sided coin, its only really 2.

ok ill stop, I'm sure that the others are annoyed to the nth degree at this point with our discussion, but thanks for the debate!
I'll stop too, but final thought- there really are three choices.

Try looking at it this way- someone is trying to help you narrow down your choices. You either accept their help ( switch) or not (stay). If you stay, you gain no further information and it's a 1/3 choice. If you switch, you're acting on insider knowledge and have partial results. You're getting a chance to change your answer given a little, but not all, of the result.
Posted June 27, 2014
I really really hope they put out a Jagged Alliance pack, or sale for Jagged Alliance 2. I've been coming every day and have yet to see it via Flash or Bundle.
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Community
General discussion (archive)2014 DRM-Free Summer Sale: Day 16(4535 posts)(4535 posts)
(4535 posts)