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General discussionUkrainian Civil War in progress?(1767 posts) (1767 posts) 
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This is my favourite topic
Posted March 17, 2014
Good to see Comrade Putin's propaganda machine in full working splendor.

And I thought CNN was bad.
Posted March 18, 2014
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StingingVelvet: Good to see Comrade Putin's propaganda machine in full working splendor.

And I thought CNN was bad.
He has no choice because the West is unleashing propaganda against him...
Posted March 18, 2014
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StingingVelvet: Good to see Comrade Putin's propaganda machine in full working splendor.

And I thought CNN was bad.
Amazing, isn't it. I refer to it as "tunnel vision".
Posted March 18, 2014
Transnistria (a region of Moldavia) wants to be annexed by Russia.
http://www.unian.info/politics/897645-transnistria-asks-to-annex-it-to-russia.html

Transnistria broke away from the Republic of Moldova in the 90's but wasn't recognized any state.
It has 3 large ethnic groups: russians, ukrainians and moldavians/romanians. Also a russian army.
Posted March 18, 2014
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Trilarion: I have the feeling it's incredibly hard next to impossible for the Russian side and for the supporters of Putin to ever admit there has been done anything wrong. One can see this here clearly I think. To be blunt: I think it's not okay to send troops, to hasten a vote, to intimidate people living there, to threat by force. Even if you don't like the current political developments in your neighbour country it's still wrong and it shows a willingsness to use force that is so strong that is also poses an international risk.
Fine, let's be blunt. Do we have a solid confirmation there were Russian troops (besides the Black Sea Navy of course) in Crimea? I somehow missed it with all the "they have Russian gear, speak Russian, so they are Russian soldiers". It's good they didn't have western gear and didn't speak English, I guess, 'cause that would be just too much for everyone to take.

And because appeasement just doesn't work my fear of what else Putin might do once he sees he can get away with it is stronger than my fear of losing personal wealth now and I'm not alone.

I guess sanctions will come and we all will have to pay the price and if others get hit hard we will have to support them because having partners in the world is a good thing.
The sanctions [url=http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-17/billionaire-usmanov-turns-to-china-after-selling-apple-facebook.html]come.

I could ask the same: Russians which get hid by economical hardships could as well make their government responsible. I already said that I think democracy in Russia is quite dysfunctional, so unhappiness might just get ignored, but still Putin needs some kind of support for sure. And all that for a bit of land which wasn't in immediate danger and where Russians can go anyway for holiday even if it is not part of the country right now, even if the constitution of 1992 is not reinstated and where you can be sure that taking it by force is not something others are going to like.
How should I put it... there are those who support his politics, there are those who oppose it. Just as usual. The reasoning behind the decisions he makes is probably known to a limited group of people, and I'm not one of them. I won't tell how I feel about it, but let me tell you one thing I'm sure of: Putin is no fool. And the situation might still turn out in all kinds of very interesting ways.

From a power play perspective it might work: Russia is small, not geographical but by population and economics. The rest of the world probably needs it less than it needing the rest of the world.
I see here two assumptions that I do not understand: 1) "the rest of the world" (which is not Russia, I assume) is EU+USA+Turkey; 2) only the West will be able to compensate (even if partially) for the damage done to its economy by the sanctions.
Would you kindly elaborate?

It probably has become clear that I don't have a very high opinion of the current (and long time) Russian government and his leader. Unfortunately the relations between Russia and the West seems to be in a downward spirale with no good options for a positive exit.

So to summarize: I fear Putin. I'm convinced he is not doing justice here, just taking what he can and by using force he is a threat, because of the size of Russia, an international threat. I rather chosenot to appease than to appease him this time, but of course anything can go wrong in the future. So I'm frightened even more. All in all economical sanctions seem like the more safe strategy. It will create clear sides, which of course is nonsense because there are never clear sides. But it tells Putin that this game is not only played by himself. Maybe this is enough to make him stop playing and search for possible agreements. I hope for that.
Enjoy it. Tell us Russian government's everything you despise. That they're the personification of evil. That they're what- responsible for the breakdown of the world order. That Putin's a one-man genocide. Say everything you want to say now. Because this won't last long. (Yes, I do like that movie.)
Post edited March 18, 2014 by Sanjuro
Posted March 18, 2014
A few alternative views from Germany (sorry, German only):

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/referendum-pro-russland-jakob-augstein-ueber-den-konflikt-auf-der-krim-a-959058.html

http://www.nachdenkseiten.de/?p=21012
http://www.nachdenkseiten.de/?p=21087 (especially the speech of Gregor Gysi in the appendix)
http://www.nachdenkseiten.de/?p=21101
Posted March 18, 2014
I just read Putin's speech.

Honestly like I said 10 pages ago if the outcome of this is a very Russian Crimea gets to be inside Russia while the rest of Ukraine is free to be more Westernized and join NATO down the road I think this is a win-win for everyone. Despite the need to scream about taking territory through invasion and a sketchy vote, which I do agree world leaders should bitch about, in the end I see that as a relatively happy outcome.

The real losers are Eastern Ukrainians I guess. With Crimea gone their country is decidedly Western in population and voting, and the East will have to go along with it.
Posted March 18, 2014
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StingingVelvet: I just read Putin's speech.

Honestly like I said 10 pages ago if the outcome of this is a very Russian Crimea gets to be inside Russia while the rest of Ukraine is free to be more Westernized and join NATO down the road I think this is a win-win for everyone. Despite the need to scream about taking territory through invasion and a sketchy vote, which I do agree world leaders should bitch about, in the end I see that as a relatively happy outcome.

The real losers are Eastern Ukrainians I guess. With Crimea gone their country is decidedly Western in population and voting, and the East will have to go along with it.
I would go even so far as to say that the threat of sanctions is instrumentalized by other (political) forces for entirely other reasons right now, I doubt they are to "make Russia do anything" but rather to get (western) population behind a certain political viewpoint. Probably either to get support to gain full economic independence from Russian gas via Fracking or by somehow pushing for a Unified European Army or the free trade agreement with USA. Or probably all 3 ;/

Either way, this conflict was never about the Crimea except for Putin ;p I think the reaction by Russia just gave forces in the back a narrative to push their agenda with.

But maybe I am just paranoid ;P
Posted March 18, 2014
^ Well, fracking proponents will have more arguments on their side for sure. Which doesn't mean we should fall for it. Or for the FTA the way it is right now.

StingingVelvet: As I said, that would probably be the best possible scenario right now. Hopefully things won't escalate even further.
Posted March 18, 2014
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StingingVelvet: I just read Putin's speech.

Honestly like I said 10 pages ago if the outcome of this is a very Russian Crimea gets to be inside Russia while the rest of Ukraine is free to be more Westernized and join NATO down the road I think this is a win-win for everyone. Despite the need to scream about taking territory through invasion and a sketchy vote, which I do agree world leaders should bitch about, in the end I see that as a relatively happy outcome.

The real losers are Eastern Ukrainians I guess. With Crimea gone their country is decidedly Western in population and voting, and the East will have to go along with it.
hmm... I guess it won't go as smoothly as we hoped :(
Posted March 18, 2014
According to official data there are 383k people in Sewastopol, but there were 474k of votes. Russians really love their right to vote. Some of them did it even twice.
Posted March 18, 2014
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Sanjuro: Fine, let's be blunt. Do we have a solid confirmation there were Russian troops (besides the Black Sea Navy of course) in Crimea? I somehow missed it with all the "they have Russian gear, speak Russian, so they are Russian soldiers". It's good they didn't have western gear and didn't speak English, I guess, 'cause that would be just too much for everyone to take.
I won't claim solid prove, but how likely is it local self-defense forces have artillery guns (source: CNN)?
Posted March 18, 2014
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Sanjuro: Fine, let's be blunt. Do we have a solid confirmation there were Russian troops (besides the Black Sea Navy of course) in Crimea? I somehow missed it with all the "they have Russian gear, speak Russian, so they are Russian soldiers". It's good they didn't have western gear and didn't speak English, I guess, 'cause that would be just too much for everyone to take.
Yes, sure Russia could provide only gear, vehicles and weapons, but let's be honest it's not the case. They are perfectly trained and they know the drill. They act very calm in extremely tense situations like when they trying to capture Ukrianians bases. It's not something that self-defence forces could learn in few days.

I also doubt that Russia would trust some civilian militia enough to give them that kind of weapons. They have snipers rifles that are produced exclusively for Russian army and heavy weapons.
Posted March 18, 2014
Shit seems to be going down according to the BBC. Shots fired, people dead and wounded, an officer taken by Russians from his home.

CNN is so far ignoring it all and talking about this fucking missing plane still.
Posted March 18, 2014
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Siannah: I won't claim solid prove, but how likely is it local self-defense forces have artillery guns (source: CNN)?
Hm, as far as i remember, when dealing with independent variants, the probabilities are added, right? So I'd say
P(locals have artillery)=P(locals are actually loyalist military)+P(other variants)
:-)
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Aver: Yes, sure Russia could provide only gear, vehicles and weapons, but let's be honest...
Let's.
I didn't visit Crimea myself, all the info I get comes from the 'net, so I don't know anything for certain. Yet I wouldn't put it beyond likelihood that the self-defense guys actually used to be in the military or law enforcement. Soldiers opposing the self-proclaimed government, (ex-)members of "Berkut" - those are two possibilities and I'm sure I missed a couple more.
//completely off-topic, but I"m really curious where your avatar comes from. I know it isn't the case but I can't help getting the impression I'm talking to "Liquid Ocelot". :-)
Post edited March 18, 2014 by Sanjuro
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General discussionUkrainian Civil War in progress?(1767 posts) (1767 posts) 
(1767 posts)