Sanjuro: ...
Trilarion: Sure that is a possibillity. This all means that the russian resources export is important. But there is a probably a limit to what Ukraine and all the other receivers are willing to take up with for the delivery of gas.
So this is a problem but one we have to face if we really are serious. In this we better show solidarity with fellow sufferers. Noone should expect that sanctions go only one way but always tolerating being bullied around? There is a limit.
Clearly we would all be better off if this crisis could have been solved before in a manner that we all can agree but it hasn't. Reaction to a crisis is always only the second best option. But that's where we are.
Sanjuro: Makes sense, yes. So, out of curiosity, how many people are OK to lose their jobs so your government could make a point in this situation? How much damage to your economy and the welfare of your people is fine to make the bad Russian government stop meddling in your government's righteous plans?
Also keep in mind that German economy is (one of?) the strongest in Europe and no matter how hard you get hit, others will get hit much harder.
I have the feeling it's incredibly hard next to impossible for the Russian side and for the supporters of Putin to ever admit there has been done anything wrong. One can see this here clearly I think. To be blunt: I think it's not okay to send troops, to hasten a vote, to intimidate people living there, to threat by force. Even if you don't like the current political developments in your neighbour country it's still wrong and it shows a willingsness to use force that is so strong that is also poses an international risk.
And because appeasement just doesn't work my fear of what else Putin might do once he sees he can get away with it is stronger than my fear of losing personal wealth now and I'm not alone.
I guess sanctions will come and we all will have to pay the price and if others get hit hard we will have to support them because having partners in the world is a good thing.
I could ask the same: Russians which get hid by economical hardships could as well make their government responsible. I already said that I think democracy in Russia is quite dysfunctional, so unhappiness might just get ignored, but still Putin needs some kind of support for sure. And all that for a bit of land which wasn't in immediate danger and where Russians can go anyway for holiday even if it is not part of the country right now, even if the constitution of 1992 is not reinstated and where you can be sure that taking it by force is not something others are going to like.
The problem is simply that Russian politics is now unpredictable. We cannot make business if the future is so insecure. And I believe that giving in completely to current developments isn't doing the trick either.
From a power play perspective it might work: Russia is small, not geographical but by population and economics. The rest of the world probably needs it less than it needing the rest of the world. So economic sanctions might effect a change, although with dysfunctional democracies I don't have much hope. I guess it will be meant as retribution putting a price on such actions so next time Putins thinks a bit more carefully. I don't have much hope there either. A diplomatic solution would always be better. But there I have actually even less hope. Doesn't sound too good, eh.
It probably has become clear that I don't have a very high opinion of the current (and long time) Russian government and his leader. Unfortunately the relations between Russia and the West seems to be in a downward spirale with no good options for a positive exit.
So to summarize: I fear Putin. I'm convinced he is not doing justice here, just taking what he can and by using force he is a threat, because of the size of Russia, an international threat. I rather chosenot to appease than to appease him this time, but of course anything can go wrong in the future. So I'm frightened even more. All in all economical sanctions seem like the more safe strategy. It will create clear sides, which of course is nonsense because there are never clear sides. But it tells Putin that this game is not only played by himself. Maybe this is enough to make him stop playing and search for possible agreements. I hope for that.
My ideal diplomatic solution would have been: A real vote on Crimea within a fixed time frame and no more Russian invasions. Already now this is as unrealistic as it gets.
History has it's own laws. But it's really not nice to experience history first-hand.
DarzaR: ...Transparent boxes actually are the anti-fraud measure. ...
Are you serious? I just find this a bit hard to believe.