He already borders NATO and the EU. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland are all in both, and all border Russia. Finland is in the EU, but not NATO (iirc).

I know that, I should have written that better. Ukraine going into NATO and EU is a much bigger deal to Russia for various reasons.

Russian planning two way attack to take East Ukraine: from Crimea, and area near Donetzk basin- last prognosis from western newspapers.

Janukovich supposedly called Putin to invade Ukraine in order to sustain Peace and Prosperity in the state. What an oxymoron.

The real sad part is that due to legalities around the rebellion from a couple weeks ago it's almost a he-said, she-said on who the President is. American media will tell you all day long the new government is the legal one but I don't think that's a world-wide opinion. As one Russian analyst said if you got a dozen constitutional lawyers in a room and asked them you'd get a dozen opinions.

Scary times if they invade further, for sure. I still doubt it would lead to greater war but anything could happen, especially if Poland and the rest put troops on their border.

I agree. Free, fair and transparent referendum on the peninsula. And _hands off_ other parts of Ukraine. Those are not autonomous republics and any decisions about economical and political vectors should be made in Parliament. It was and still is a legitimate authority. Some former ruling party members ran away like rats and haven't appeared at work for weeks already, so those who voted for them should get explanations from them directly. I consider it a high treason.

They don't have the balls. But actually even more relevant most simply don't care. And if they do, they have no idea how. Winning is so passe, nowadays it's 50 shades of white flags. Surrender and win. "Don't take another step, or I'm shooting myself. You won't get another warning!"

I admit to some surprise they even went as far as they have, in first supporting the protestors and now in criticizing Putin and Russia.

It's easy to start the war. It's much harder to end one. Conflict is also what Putin hopes for. If there will be any conflict then it will be impossible for Ukraine to get out of financial crisis. Government will fall and Putin will be able to send his guys again to take over.

It would take a MASSIVE escalation from the current situation for Poland to do anything more than talk, I completely agree. I'm speaking more of a doomsday scenario where Russia invaded the Ukraine entirely and sits at the Polish border with evil looking glares on their faces.

I don't think it will happen, but people are asking about horror scenarios.

I don't have a dog in the fight, and am not really up on my eastern European conflicts, but it seems to me that this is one of those 'spheres of influence' problems that often create tensions and sometimes war.

I remember hearing about the west developing some sort of missile defense shield in the Ukraine a few years ago. Are western defense measures part of this? Could the Russians just be preempting what they perceive as a viable threat against their 'ambitions' in eastern Europe?

Perhaps this is also just a case of Putin calling the bluff. The U.S. were training the Georgians for years against Russian incursions with the GTEP operation, and look where that went.

According to most analysts it is VERY much about Russia wanting to keep it's influence in the Ukraine in the face of Ukraine going very Western. Also the port in Crimea, of course.

Just my point of view, but right now I think Russia has some good reasons. Assuming that:

1. the Ukrainian rebels are nationalists but not nazis (it would be scaring for me if EU supported a rebellion with such a component)
2. Ianukovich was/is really as corrupt as they say

still, there's something wrong with what the new government wants. As far as I've understood, only the western part of the country is inhabited by ukrainian-speaking people, Crimea talks mostly russian and many territories in the east are also russian-speaking. But the rebels want it all, and they'd rather 'call for help' than giving what would be (imo) right to give. Ukraine has an insane debt with Russia (gas), and I can't see how Russia can be considered as a devil. They want to be free from russian influence and get closer to the EU? They want a state where they (ethnic Ukrainians) can decide for themselves? Good, but what right do they have to get also the lands that aren't really inhabited by them, but by russians? When Czechoslovakia split, two countries were born, now Ukrainians would like in their country something as if the Czechs had taken the whole country from themselves, abolished Slovak language and forced Slovak people to emigrate. Best thing to me would be if the new Ukrainian state gave up territories that are inhabited by russians, Crimea in primis. If you want a long term peace, I don't think there's another option, because if you make russians angry with something less (abolishing russian language and still keeping the territories inhabited by russains) they'll never forgive it (and I wouldn't either). Also Russia is maybe worried about having some sort of natural borders, a potentially hostile Ukraine means the russian plains will be exposed, and this will make them costantly worried and maybe aggressive. They'll consider theirs the lands east of the Dnieper and won't be happy until they take the back, in one way or another. If those lands are mainly russian-speaking, they should change flag. Give them all a referendum, otherwise is it that Ukrainians have right to self-determination, and russian-speaking Ukrainians don't? It really stinks to me.

Fuck off.

Edit: Okay, sorry, probably overreacting here but justifying Russia's approach is pure fucking madness and the political reasoning you showed is almost medieval in nature. This conflict is not about ethnicity, it's about politics (btw: people of Russian ethnicity aren't automatically pro-Russia). The Russians just played that "we need to protect our people!" card to (unsuccessfully) justify an intervention so they can tip over that conflict in their own favor, influencing a political and social development that they should normally have no say in. The Russian government is pure fucking evil and you can be sure that there are no ethical reasons behind acts like this intervention. It's all about maintaining insane Russian imperialism that is actually extremely hurtful even to their own people.

Yes but the EU is exerting it's influence by saying "hey guys wanna be in the EU someday?" while Russia is exerting its influence by invading the sovereign state of Ukraine.

I repeat, if EU cares about the right of self determination, the only way is a referendum in the provinces that may be interested, that's my opinion. Russia has sent soldiers in Crimea (100% russian or almost) and that's it for now. Yes it isn't nice, but it's a way to say that they are part of the equation and don't want to be put in a corner. Ukrainian leaders are probably happy about it because they can call for help against the evil russians, and if EU (or the USA) answers with threats or weapons, it will show what its real interest is. It's a rope and two sides are pulling it, but Russia at least has some reasons. Let the people decide,I'd say, but I doubt the idealistic Ukrainian or EU leaders would allow it, at least judging from what they've shown until now. Maybe I'm wrong but I'm a bit sceptical.