Maybe, although Greece wasn't even doing very well when it had a more conservative government. The only difference was that the conservatives agreed faster to the EU proposals.

One thing I don't understand though is why at least the Greek government hasn't been considering leaving the euro and defaulting in the debt more seriously. They would immediately get bad debt written off effectively and the devaluation of the new currency would help in regaining growth. Why not going this obvious way out.

As a solution out, if only an ordered way of insolvency of states would exist, an independent mediator who makes a proposal what Greece has to do and how much debt gets written off might make sense? That may help in this very difficult situation.

But I'm much more worried about the immediate effects. If the EU cannot bring itself to accept the Greek proposal for the next three years until monday then situation in Greece may get worse dramatically.

Next week may become very dramatic.

I'm worried EU leaders are still not offering anything that would bring growth. They just want cuts, cuts, cuts which is not very reasonable. On the other hand Greece seems to need huge sums of money in the next three years if everything goes on like it was.

Best solution would be if all would agree that Greece would use a different currency for the time being and that expense cuts are compensated by investments and that surely debts get written off (the only question is how much and when). And then I would not care whether the involved governments were socialistic, conservative or whatever.

Maybe the negotiations would be better off in the hands of a neutral, independent body. Maybe a European court or something.
I fully agree but still the referendum backfires a bit. Three days after the referendum the Greek government offers almost everything the Greeks have said No to in the referendum (although under some different circumstances for example a different duration). Now one could be concerned about the credibility. How certain is it, that the Greek government could push something through that Greek people don't want? Either the will of the Greek people may not be worth a lot or the proposal of the Greek government may not.

I don't care personally but some people will find it strange that the Greek government made a referendum, campaigned for a No and then altered the Yes offer somewhat and proposed it and didn't ask the people again. It may seem as if the referendum was not a big victory of democracy but rather just an (somewhat minor) act in the play with the purpose of getting a slightly better offer (nothing wrong with that). Or do you see big differences between the new offer from Greece and the EU proposal the Greeks said No to?

So the negotiations are adjourned... with no final agreement on anything. Sunday last day of days meeting of whole European Union leadership (all 28...)... Start 11am... and if no result then I doubt this meeting will end until there is. No matter how long, even if nobody agrees on anything, orderly Grexit would be declared, emergency votes called. Not a pretty situation to be in for Greece.

Germany put "temporary leave for 5 years with debt restructuring" on the table. Seems clear debt cut is not going to happen while Greece is in the Euro. But Greece would have to accept this on own volition... that found a lot more acceptance with Eurozone members than a new bailout....

Everyone could live with it being temporary Grexit... for en extended period of time (5 years) and when membership is suspended, Greece can do scrib currency to whisk away most debt. Win-win? Well, win for Europe... let's face it, such devaluation could cripple Greece and leave it after 5 years in no better position than it is now... not sure a nation can even leave the Eurozone temporarily either ;) Seems like it would be an interesting legal construct to say the least.

The Greek government isn't considering leaving the Euro more seriously (more overtly may be more accurate, see below) for much the same reason the Germans are so opposed to a write down; because it's a deeply unpopular move amongst their electorate.

Practically they will be seriously considering leaving the Euro, they just want to do so in circumstances where they can blame others for it, hence giving everything away in their offer- if it is rejected they can argue that there was nothing they could do and it is all Germany/ Estonia/ Slovakia/ Finland's or whoever's fault as they would never have accepted any offer and had no good faith and were callous penny pinchers with no actual idea of European solidarity. It's much the same for Germany and debt reduction, they know it's necessary but will only do it under circumstances where they are politically covered. If they aren't politically covered they'd rather see a grexit and just blame everything on the Greeks being a special case of laziness and profligacy.

There really are about four different competing forces at work

1) Greek internal politics, with the contradictory influences of the Euro being popular but austerity unpopular
2) Primarily but not exclusively German politics, with the contradictory influences of austerity being popular and the debt reduction that is actually needed being unpopular
3) Contagion, where any concession to Greece sees concessions to PISC or conversely, any Grexit leads to others following especially if it is ultimately a successful exit and which in any case would put a stake through the idea of continual irreversible European integration.
4) Political contagion, where any concession to Greece sees a resurgence in left wing parties or conversely, not conceding leads to a resurgence in nationalism and extreme left/ right parties.

None of those considerations are the ultimate question that needs answering and without which whatever happens will not be a true fix: what to do with the Euro, whether it becomes a proper fiscal union rather than a pet political project; or whether it goes the opposite direction and sheds the weaker countries or is disbanded.

Syriza rolled back some of the austerity measures Greece had agreed to and halted the implementation of others- that was what kicked off this whole recent fiasco. And because Greece is now in an even worse financial situation as a result, those creditors want additional austerity measures because they think that's what's necessary for there to be any chance of Greece being able to sustain their finances and eventually pay back the debt. Whether the austerity measures will actually have the desired effect is a whole debate on its own, but currently is not relevant to this discussion. The relevant fact is that the creditors believe those measures are necessary, so unless Greece is either willing to accept those measures or is able to convince the creditors otherwise then there is no reason for the creditors to loan Greece more money (as it would just be money down the drain in their view).

That the Greek economy and people are being crushed by austerity is, while unfortunate, also not relevant (and as I mentioned earlier it should be noted that before Syriza it was actually looking like the contraction of the Greek economy had stopped). Again, unless they can propose an alternative to the austerity to reach a stable economic situation then there's no reason for the creditors to require anything less in exchange for further loans (having the rest of the EU perpetually sustain Greece with infusions of capital is simply not something that's going to happen). As for repayment, while Greece's ability to eventually repay the debts is also debatable, it is also of little relevance. If Greece cannot repay their current debts, then it makes no sense for them to be loaned even more money. The creditors can't force them to pay, but absent the will and ability to repay the debts there's no reason for any creditors to loan Greece more money.

It wouldn't cause the debt to be written off. Sovereign debt can't simply be discharged, it has to be explicitly forgiven by whoever the lenders are. While the Greek government could leave the Euro and thus regain control of their monetary policy, the debt would still remain (and still be denominated in Euros); this large outstanding debt would pretty much exclude Greece from any equity markets, meaning that they couldn't borrow any money, which would make it difficult for them to import many goods or do international business. Internally they could just print their own currency, but the exchange rates on that would probably be extremely poor, if other countries are even willing to accept it. The debt might get forgiven at some point in the future, but it would likely have to be after the Greek government underwent a complete transformation, and also after they'd restored some level of economic stability and sustainability internally.

The process that would follow from leaving the Euro may eventually allow Greece to turn things around, but in the short term it would be far, far more painful than the current austerity measures being demanded by creditors, which is why the Greek government hasn't chosen to go this route.

Uh, we're already under a left wing government since at least 2013 (if not late 2011 with Monti, after Berlusconi was forced to resign and it was rumored we'd be put under EU commisioners) and it's way more compliant to EU policies than you'd think. In fact they managed to raise taxes, lower the welfare (again) steal some money from retired workers (which eventually was declared uncostitutional, but they aren't going to give the money back anyway) put the balanced budget amendment in the friggin Constitution and approved the BRRD presumably in preparation of another Cyprus. Oh and our debt is still growing, go figure.
That's our left wing government for you. Pretty much all right wing parties (or at least what's left of them: they died with Berlusconi) along with the extreme left are against EU policies or even the Euro itself; but that's in large part due to the fact they're desperate for consensus - I had no doubt that if they were governing right now they'd be singing a totally different tune, and Forza Italia is part of the EPP after all...

$86 billion in unpaid taxes tells me that some (many?) people are not paying their dues. Even if the government collected only half the owed amount, that would probably be enough for a nice stimulus package. Those European taxpayers that you seem to think are so heartless and evil have families to think about too. It would bother the hell out of me if I saw money I worked for going to people who can't be bothered to pay their taxes.

Perhaps not. That's why I really like coming to this forum, it's a real eye-opener for some of us that don't really know anyone currently living on different continents. You can't always rely on what you see in the news because it's so often biased these days.

Is your situation (and those in worse situations) typical in Greece today? I had thought that not collecting 1/2 of owed taxes because of people who really couldn't afford to pay would be enough. Also, I had assumed that your income tax system was somewhat similar to ours, where you have to pay income tax on your income from the previous year. Wow, you have to pay 50% of your estimated salary for the current year in advance? That does suck.
Good luck to you and your family.

I do get annoyed though when I see lefties trying to shame taxpayers for (as we put it in the US) enjoying the "fruits of our labors". If you earn it legitimately you should be able to spend it as you please.

I'm not sure what your source is for your figures on the taxes. There was some analysis / reporting here that suggests that you're figures are a little extreme.

Nope, my rhetorically expressed belief in a specific future is no more and no less than an indictment of political incompetence. I think in context that's obvious. Especially since I repeated the expression about the safety net, only completing the sentence as the finish.

Your interpretation that it indicates fatalism or inevitability assumes (your bias showing?) that "individualism" (ergo responsibility) is not a solution. It also shows a certain lack of understanding of hyperbolic rhetoric... if you just thought I was exaggerating, I'd be more than happy to confess such pecadillo.

Thanks for the follow up though. I now assume my interpretation of your intent replying to me was not passive aggressive. Given your earlier reply to Trilarion you might see where that interpretation of mine came from. Glad you cleared that up.

Can you have a chat with Tstael and me about this? I think it would be very interesting, as when it comes to the EU I am in between her idealism on its intent and your pragmatism on its reality. The hello dictator thread.

By the way :)

Class hatred!!!

Is that a better aimed effort than accusing you of racism? :p

Well i don't know if that's what you meant (or i got to say), but what i meant exactly was that :

Let's suppose we have a freelancer that makes 15.000 a year.
He has to pay 26% income tax for this year, so 3.900 euro.
But he also has to pay 55% of that amount (3.900) for next year.. So all in all 3.900 + 2145 for this year.

isn't that fucking stupid to do on a country that's already struck by austerity? And it's even more dumb if you see all those figures (employment, buying goods etc) plummeting. Why do i have to be taxed on next year's income that will likely be much less than this year's income?

Guess we got fucking geniuses on power... Btw that only happens for freelancers. Public workers and other assistants don't have this exact tax to pay but some similar...

All countries have abusive tax systems in place for freelancers. The simple fact is that governments hate them. The reason for this is that big business hate them because they provide a natural competitive check on the rates the big businesses can charge.

In the UK we have a much hated tax law IR35 where a freelancer is charged tax on the profits his company makes (you have to trade under a limited company) by bringing in sales, and then charged tax on the wage he then pays to himself to take the money out of the company. Net result is the same work is being charged twice.

IR35 brings in very little actual revenue though because everyone gets around it by paying 0 wage then churning out a massive dividend. It's called tax avoidance, the thing that Greece has been accused of being very naughty for. It's in no way hippocritical of us.

Even though nobody likes the grammar police, I can't just let this one slide.

I always spell it wrong, I instinctively went for hypocritical, but felt there was something I get wrong with it (I think it was actually that I sometimes add 2 p's), then started doubting myself and got even more wrong. Usually when I'm toying with how to spell something I reach a point of "fuck it, they'll know what I mean", or "right I'll just pick a different word I can spell".