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General discussionThe COVID-19 thread(1039 posts) (1039 posts) 
(1039 posts) 
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This is my favourite topic
Posted March 25, 2020
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DadJoke007: Those who argue beLieVe SciENCe and so on are no better than religious fanatics, they argue from pure belief and appeal to authority just like the group they so often despise.
An ironic Galilean development.

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toxicTom: You should try to contact your embassy, they probably would know what you should do and what (paperwork) it takes.
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JaqFrost: Well, that's where it gets sorta funny. I'm a citizen of more than one country, but I'm neither a resident, nor do I have any family in either country, so I'd be in the exact same situation over there. […]
Wherever you pay tax you have a claim for assistance. Or, rather, if you don't pay taxes the government will be less interested in helping you.

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GameRager: ... people who got sick during the 1st wave start feeling better and prematurely re-enter society -- becoming carriers and spreading the virus (again). And, often those people allow the virus to re-energize within their own systems as well.
Nowadays we can also add the resumption of international travel to the growth of a 2nd wave (as China is now starting to experience their 2nd wave alongside resumption of international travel). […]
Yes, I am more worried about the next months than the immediate threat. The reservoir (the population in which the virus is virulent) needs to be exhausted to ensure total safety, and that would require a proximal lock-down until all locals have remained uninfected for two weeks (assuming that is the incubation period, something that is still uncertain).

I have just received my annual 'flu shot, and this year the quadrivalent inoculation covers:
A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09 —— like strain (A/Brisbane/02/2018 IVR-190);
A/South Australia/34/2019 (H3N2) —— like strain (A/South Australia/34/2019 IVR-197);
B/Washington/02/2019; and
B/Phuket/2073/2013.

Last year it was: Michigan A (H1N1), Switzerland A (H3N2), Colorado B, and Phuket B.
Posted March 25, 2020
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francksteel: You claim there is something that can be called common sense and that it is useful.

What are your proofs how it ?
I wasn't trying to prove-disprove common sense, just say that people should think carefully and use critical thinking when "digesting"(or taking in) new information on this or anything else that's important.

Sadly, though, many don't make use of it/such skills.
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scientiae: An ironic Galilean development.
Could you explain(in layman's terms if possible) what this means? I tried googling it but cannot figure what to be reading to find out more about this term/concept.

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scientiae: Yes, I am more worried about the next months than the immediate threat. The reservoir (the population in which the virus is virulent) needs to be exhausted to ensure total safety, and that would require a proximal lock-down until all locals have remained uninfected for two weeks (assuming that is the incubation period, something that is still uncertain).
Which might be impossible, given that many)especially in so-called "third world countries" aren't bothering to comply with such measures even when their govts implement them...thus likely keeping said reservoirs from being exhausted quickly...if at all.
Post edited March 25, 2020 by GameRager
Posted March 25, 2020
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scientiae: Wherever you pay tax you have a claim for assistance. Or, rather, if you don't pay taxes the government will be less interested in helping you.
I pay taxes in Vietnam, but seeing as they don't even pay their retired citizens a pension unless they've worked for the state, I don't have a snowball's chance in hell to get any assistance. I think I'm just stuck until Poland allows for air travel out of the country.
Posted March 25, 2020
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francksteel: To quote (from memory) a Field medal owner (Jean-Louis Lyons, 1992 or 1996 I think) :
- from 2 to 15 years old, people at school try to learn what ancient greek (2500 years from now) made in maths;
- from 16 to 18 (graduate ? I'm not sure of the terms USA use for school levels) : trying to get to 18th centuary (at least for those who specialize a bit in math, staying to 17 at most for the others)
- 18-21 : 19th centuary
- 22 - 24: until world war 2
- preparing to be a doctor (25-28 and more) : from WW2 to nowadays.
An interesting viewpoint. The numbers seems to be a bit high, however it does paint a partial picture of an archaic system.

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francksteel: Most of the people don't have the tools to understand the tools needed to understand the tools you require to begin to use the tools needed to understand what a scientific really talks about and really means.
Good example of what triggers the infamous Dunning-Kruger effect, and one might say it's because of low intelligence rather than poor/none education.
Post edited March 25, 2020 by sanscript
Posted March 25, 2020
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richlind33: A hammer isn't an ideology. Capitalism has a profound impact on how human beings interact with each other. Nothing else has a comparable effect, which underscores why socio-economics is paramount.
Humans may or may not be moral, depending on how we live our lives. When we place ourselves in the service of those who are amoral, we are not moral beings. Not at all.
You seem to be using amoral as a synonym of immoral.

You also seem to be implying that society would be better if people were forced to be moral (through some ideology, presumably).

What do you mean by capitalism as an ideology? This “socio-economics” scientism sounds exactly like the sort of Scholasticism that the (original) radicals sought to vanquish, seeking rational merit from woolly that led to the Baconian scientific method.
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Mafwek: Would you guys stop discussing ontology of morality on corona virus thread? Ffs, philosophy, outside logic is completely meaningless.
The search for answers is meaningless outside logic?
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Mafwek: Anyway, here in capital of Croatia we thought Covid-19 wasn't bad enough and with all of us being hardcore gamers of the game called "Real Life" decided to try surviving a medium strength earthquake during pandemic as well, just for that little bit of extra challenge.
Thoughts and prayers are with Zagreb. Keep positive and try to focus on what can be done.

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scientiae: An ironic Galilean development.
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GameRager: Could you explain(in layman's terms if possible) what this means? I tried googling it but cannot figure what to be reading to find out more about this term/concept.
Sì. :)
Irony is when the literal inverts the actual. You'll like Galileo since he supports your current “common sense” argument, and lampoons “science by consensus”:
In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.
Galileo Galilei

More relevantly, after he published the evidence (demonstrating that not all heavenly objects revolved around the Earth, thus contradicting centuries of Magisterium teaching) Galileo was required to “abjure, curse and detest” his these offensive “opinions”, under pain of death.
The Admonition and False Injunction of 1616
In 1613, just as Galileo published his Letters on the Solar Spots, an openly Copernican writing, the first attack came from a Dominican friar and professor of ecclesiastical history in Florence, Father Lorini. Preaching on All Soul's Day, Lorini said that Copernican doctrine violated Scripture, which clearly places Earth, and not the Sun at the center of the universe. […]
Galileo responded to criticism of his Copernican views in a December 1613 Letter to Castelli. In his letter, Galileo argued that the Scripture—although truth itself—must be understood sometimes in a figurative sense. A reference, for example, to “the hand of God” is not meant to be interpreted as referring to a five-fingered appendage, but rather to His presence in human lives. Given that the Bible should not be interpreted literally in every case, Galileo contended, it is senseless to see it as supporting one view of the physical universe over another. “Who,” Galileo asked, “would dare assert that we know all there is to be known?”
Galileo hoped that his Letter to Castelli might foster a reconciliation of faith and science, but it only served to increase the heat. […]
In order to convince those obdurate men, who are out for the vain approval of the stupid vulgar, it would not me enough even if the stars came down on earth to bring witness about themselves. Let us be concerned only with gaining knowledge for ourselves, and let us find therein our consolation.
Galileo to Castelli.
Posted March 25, 2020
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scientiae: Wherever you pay tax you have a claim for assistance. Or, rather, if you don't pay taxes the government will be less interested in helping you.
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JaqFrost: I pay taxes in Vietnam, but seeing as they don't even pay their retired citizens a pension unless they've worked for the state, I don't have a snowball's chance in hell to get any assistance. I think I'm just stuck until Poland allows for air travel out of the country.
Move to Scandinavia, we'll give you an apartment and a car at arrival, and a future room at a retirement home even if you haven't paid taxes...
Post edited March 25, 2020 by sanscript
Posted March 25, 2020
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francksteel: You claim there is something that can be called common sense and that it is useful.

What are your proofs how it ?
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GameRager: I wasn't trying to prove-disprove common sense, just say that people should think carefully and use critical thinking when "digesting"(or taking in) new information on this or anything else that's important.
Sorry, to insist, but it's you who wrote (in a affirmative way) :

They do [have common sense]

and:

There is [a concept named common sense]


If you change common sense by critical thinking : OK, but then how do you use it well, if you don't have the scientific base for it to work ? What can your critical thinking do with scientific stuff ? How can you judge that claim A is better/worse than claim B ?

I'm afraid that for most people that will be a full circle back to their "common sense", and hence a lot of errors and will finish believing anti-scientific claims, which are so much simpler to "understand".

So, you make many claims, but concretely, how does it work ? What must people do, CONCRETELY, that would not be, finally, relying on experts ? How do you judge the expertise of one or another ? How long and how do you look into the assertions of experts ?

Take the example of chloroquine... : Raoult (expert virologist in France, maybe worldwide known) says he has healed 75% of the 24 patients he gave his treatment and wants everybody to use it NOW en masse. Other experts say that chloroquine is a dangerous tool and that the efficiency is not yet proven. Imagine you are a doctor, a ill patient asks you to give him chloroquine, do you give him ? Imagine you are the ill patient, do you ask for chloroquine ? Imagine you are head of your government : what do you do ?

How long and how do you seek information about chloroquine before choosing an answer to each of those questions ?(and answer CAN be different for each).

Please be concrete in your answer. Not just "I use my critical thinking" or "I don't put confidence blindly in expert". How and what do you do ?

Other example : most of the people who claim that there is no global warming pretend that they use their skepticism and their critical thinking to not be confident on the scientific consensus.
How many people, in USA in particular, do believe in intelligent design, god creation 6 000 years ago, and will use their critical thinking (or what they believe to be critical thinking) to doubt evolution ? Last time I checked it was about 50 or more percent.

Can you at least answer a few of my previous post questions (mathematics, physics...) - using critical thinking or common sense ?
Posted March 25, 2020
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sanscript: An interesting viewpoint. The numbers seems to be a bit high, however it does paint a partial picture of an archaic system.
Some examples : (add 1 week to some years if you change "learn" by "understand" in the following :
at which age does one learn to solve ax+b = c ?
at which age does one learn to use a fonction like f(x) = L / (1 + exp(-k(x-x0)) (this kind of fonction describe well an epidemic spread)
at which age does one learn about complex numbers ? (so much uses of them...)
at which age does one learn Rolle theorem ? (crucial for example to understand what is the problem with petrol stock and consumption)
at which age does one learn about Fourier series ? (so much uses of them...)
at which age does one learn about Lie Groups (essentials in petrol chemistry)
at which age does one learn about big numbers law (not sure of the name in english) ?
at which age does one learn about cohomology ?

at that's very far of what is done now in mathematics and used by scientifics to learn and build modern tools used every day.

I don't know how to change for the better the educational systems to lower those numbers (not mentionning giving everyone the means to just know about those concepts).

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sanscript: Good example of what triggers the infamous Dunning-Kruger effect, and one might say it's because of low intelligence rather than poor/none education.
Knew by experiment this effect for years but learnt its name only a couple month ago !
And yep, we all have our biases !
One can mention taste also for why people don't give a f... to mathematics, but I fear that really thinking about it I'll circle back to : low intelligence and/or poorly done educational systems.
Posted March 25, 2020
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francksteel: How many people, in USA in particular, do believe in intelligent design, god creation 6 000 years ago, and will use their critical thinking (or what they believe to be critical thinking) to doubt evolution ? Last time I checked it was about 50 or more percent.
Actually, intelligent design and Darwinism isn't in conflict with each other...

Let's take an example; we humans (China?) create a new strain of virus (intelligent design) and "accidentally" release it to the "wide world web" and see it grows and mutate (darwinism).

It all depends on how you look at it; a cylinder might also be a rectangle or a circle.

Our carbon-dating techniques might be flawed, but the nonsense about only 6000 years old world is really an archaic way of looking at the world. I've never met anyone in real life or on the web that actually takes that seriously (but then again I, never go to such "meetings").

EDIT: Yes, no, we don't carbonating our finds, we carbon-dating them... XD

EDIT 2: Also, intelligent design isn't synonymous with common religion. USA has the last 40 years been neglecting education which also leads to more people adopting religion.
Post edited March 25, 2020 by sanscript
Posted March 25, 2020
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scientiae:
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JaqFrost: I pay taxes in Vietnam, but seeing as they don't even pay their retired citizens a pension unless they've worked for the state, I don't have a snowball's chance in hell to get any assistance. I think I'm just stuck until Poland allows for air travel out of the country.
A communist country that treats its tax-paying citizens as expendable commodities? Who'da thunk it. :|
Posted March 25, 2020
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GameRager: They do(by that I meant critical thinking and checking what one reads)....most are just too lazy to use it, but many still have the capacity to do so.

There is(see above on point A).
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francksteel: You claim there is something that can be called common sense and that it is useful.

What are your proofs how it ?

Mathematics show that "common sense" can be blatantly wrong on many, many things.
Quantic mechanics, theory of relativity are just so more true than common sense and just go against so many things that common sense would lead anybody to say it's true.

I will give you some example :

- Is it possible to sum an infinite number of strictly positives numbers and still have a finite sum ?

- Is it possible for 2 events (A and B) to happen at the same time for me, but for A to happen before B in your point of view, and B to happen before A if the point of view of someone else ?

- in void (but with gravity) does a ton of lead fall faster than a single feather ?

- If I'm on train (100 miles/hour for example) and, neglecting frictions), let fall an object A) inside the train or B) by the window, where will the object touch the ground (outside the train) : behind/before/at my feet ?

- SAme train, facing its direction, I throw a ball in front of me, initial speed of the ball : 10 miles/hour. What is the speed of the ball from A) my point of view ? B) from the point of view of someone standing still outside the train ?
- same train, now I'm sending a photon : speed of the photon in A) and B ?

- double-slit experiment : electron is a wave or a particle ?

If you can answer to those questions according to what science has to say about, you clearly didn't use common sense to do so. If you need to google to answer, you clearly will see blatantly false claims and/or need to be confident in experts.

good number of people have plenty of time now(being mostly locked down and all), though.
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francksteel: Do you think people will have YEARS to study mathematics, economics, physics... How will people make the experiments to be really sure by themselves ?

And even so, many of them would:
- not find how to handle just the beginning how those;
- have to rely (believe) on experts to teach them how to, get to some advanced science

Alone with google/qwant... without having to rely on expert, you'll need years just to get to the level in mathematics that is needed just to begin to understand what scientifics are talking about when they speak the science of the 19th century. Not even speaking of the 20th !

To quote (from memory) a Field medal owner (Jean-Louis Lyons, 1992 or 1996 I think) :
- from 2 to 15 years old, people at school try to learn what ancient greek (2500 years from now) made in maths;
- from 16 to 18 (graduate ? I'm not sure of the terms USA use for school levels) : trying to get to 18th centuary (at least for those who specialize a bit in math, staying to 17 at most for the others)
- 18-21 : 19th centuary
- 22 - 24: until world war 2
- preparing to be a doctor (25-28 and more) : from WW2 to nowadays.

Most of the people don't have the tools to understand the tools needed to understand the tools you require to begin to use the tools needed to understand what a scientific really talks about and really means. (for myself I'm somewhere beetween the 2nd and third "tools").

And just understanding a bit of the 19th centuary mathematics, with more than 20 hours a week at school + home working on it, only a fraction of the population is ABLE to.

Look how many people just have hard time (cannot) understand just negative numbers (14th centuary), basic arithmetics (14 th centuary).
Look how many people doesn't make a diffence between :
A) If it's raining then I take my umbrella and B) If I take my umbrella then it's raining

Or how many people are able to say the correct contrary of : "Every cat are grey"

How do you want people who don't understand fractions/negatives to just have an idea of what can be true/is strictly bullshit about economics/ medicine... and can make a difference between an expert and a charlatan ?
How many PHD's does it take to be able to say "I don't know", or grasp how corruption destroys the integrity of people and institutions?
Posted March 25, 2020
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richlind33: A hammer isn't an ideology. Capitalism has a profound impact on how human beings interact with each other. Nothing else has a comparable effect, which underscores why socio-economics is paramount.
Humans may or may not be moral, depending on how we live our lives. When we place ourselves in the service of those who are amoral, we are not moral beings. Not at all.
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scientiae: You seem to be using amoral as a synonym of immoral.

You also seem to be implying that society would be better if people were forced to be moral (through some ideology, presumably).

What do you mean by capitalism as an ideology? This “socio-economics” scientism sounds exactly like the sort of Scholasticism that the (original) radicals sought to vanquish, seeking rational merit from woolly that led to the Baconian scientific method.
What do you think the liklihood is that people who eschew morality engage in immoral behavior? Obviously the two words are not synonymous, but it is equally obvious that they correlate very closely, because it is *far* easier to be selfish than it is to be unselfish.

You cannot force people to be moral, because what sets morality apart from compliance is that it is voluntary. Why does the fact that I don't assume people are moral beings lead you to conclude that I want to force people to be moral? Does it not occur to you that morality can be taught by example?

Do you honestly think that crony capitalism is grounded in science? Of course it is ideology, because it is blatantly invested in it's own perpetuation.
Posted March 25, 2020
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sanscript: Actually, intelligent design and Darwinism isn't in conflict with each other...
I must totally disagree on that, intelligent design (tm) (c) is only a pseudo-science.

I just don't understand the parallel with "coronavirus created by China".
It's possible to test this theory (and there are good hints it's false : https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.974139v2 ) while creationist and ID share the same DNA : not possible to test their claims (cf Popper view of what is science or not)

a cylinder might also be a rectangle or a circle.
Depending of your point of view, you can see part of cylinder as a rectangle or a circle.
But 1/ a rectangle is not a cylinder and cannot be viewed as a cylinder.
2/ someone pretending that there are only rectangle and cylinders don't exist because if you look the RIGHT way you see only a rectangle is lying to you and taking you for an imbecile. That's what creationist and IDers do.

IDers voluntarily hide some experiments, observations, to let you think that there is only 'god' that can explain their views and that evolution cannot exist by itself.

Our carbon-dating techniques might be flawed, but the nonsense about only 6000 years old world is really an archaic way of looking at the world. I've never met anyone in real life or on the web that actually takes that seriously (but then again I, never go to such "meetings").
In USA : around 40 % of the USA people believe of world created less than 10 000 years ago.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/210956/belief-creationist-view-humans-new-low.aspx

If you add IDers or the like that is 76%. Only 19% don't need a puppeter or santa claus to guide evolution.

Remember also creationism is vastly taught in schools of USA(not every states) and sometimes (often) Evolution is not, or at best is said to be of the same level of proof than creationism. That will certainly have major effect in the next years.

If you want to see what such disbelief in science can lead (and I put IDers in the same bucket) : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiana_Pi_Bill
It was in 1897. Not so far, hey !

EDIT 2: Also, intelligent design isn't synonymous with common religion. USA has the last 40 years been neglecting education which also leads to more people adopting religion.
OK it's not synonymous but Intelligent design is for me the Troyan Horse of creationism. If you believe in ID you are more prone after that to believe in creationism. Just modifying 6000 years to a few millions or billions doesn't really change anything. It's just that ID mimicks science to be appealing to more people, those with a faint taint of scientific education.
I must add that there are many "currents" of IDers, from the less religious and more 'scientific' to the more religious and more creationnist ones.

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richlind33: How many PHD's does it take to be able to say "I don't know", or grasp how corruption destroys the integrity of people and institutions?
I don't know, I know that a lot of PhD in France are quite angry against our government and how rich people are responsible of the actual crisis.
If you can translate that to english:
https://www.liberation.fr/debats/2020/03/24/j-ai-la-rage_1782912

How many incult persons does it take to say 'I know The Truth' and begin to burn books and then people ?
Well, I think coronavirus is going to teach us again the lesson (Yep, I'm a pessimistic person!)
Do you honestly think that crony capitalism is grounded in science? Of course it is ideology, because it is blatantly invested in it's own perpetuation.
+1000!
Post edited March 25, 2020 by francksteel
Posted March 25, 2020
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francksteel: at which age does one learn to use a fonction like f(x) = L / (1 + exp(-k(x-x0)) (this kind of fonction describe well an
hi,

i am trying to model the covid-19 spread (as a passtime... games no longer soothe my nerves)

somehow the function above is not consistent with single peak curves that i have been looking at... can you link some source material please?

thanks.
Posted March 25, 2020
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francksteel: at which age does one learn to use a fonction like f(x) = L / (1 + exp(-k(x-x0)) (this kind of fonction describe well an
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7PCGamer: hi,

i am trying to model the covid-19 spread (as a passtime... games no longer soothe my nerves)

somehow the function above is not consistent with single peak curves that i have been looking at... can you link some source material please?

thanks.
This is the logistic function (for x>0)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

In french : https://www.pourlascience.fr/sd/epidemiologie/coronavirus-lequation-de-lepidemie-18966.php

in german : https://www.spektrum.de/kolumne/die-covid-19-gleichung/1712714

As you speak of peak curves, may I assume you are trying to model the number of new cases ? The logistic function will give you the total of cases through time, and is just a "1st degree" approximation.

-----

Funny to see that my post 783 is low rated. I'd like people who low rated it to answer the questions I ask.
I will assume until then that they low rated it because they know they can't, and that it angries them ;-)
Post edited March 25, 2020 by francksteel
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionThe COVID-19 thread(1039 posts) (1039 posts) 
(1039 posts)