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I got trapped in Poland when the border closed. My rental is up at the end of the month. The internet seems filled with people asking about getting into Poland, but nothing on leaving.
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richlind33: Really speaking, "knowing" is a fallacy, and is detrimental in that it inhibits learning. Learning is what is essential, because it allows us to adapt.
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toxicTom: Pretty much this. The downside of this approach is that more you learn, the more you have to realize how much you don't know and much you judge and act out of convictions that are often not really grounded in something substantial.

For the current situation I can only say "not enough data". I've read scientific and well argued pieces towards all kinds of ends - from "it's all exaggerated, it's not worse than the flu" to "this will end badly, even if we try to contain it" and "shutdown is the only way" to "economic collapse will be far worse than a million deaths of already old and sick people".

What I see as a great danger in the current situation (which we can't change anyway) is a sharp increase of suicides and domestic violence. And this is something we can do something about - be nice to each other, watch out for each other. Offer help if needed and possible. Call the police when bad things happen.
I'm thankful that no matter how much I learn, there is no end in sight, because learning makes me happy -- that, and good coffee. ;p
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kai2: If you get ill, stay home -- limiting your exposure to others -- until you are certain that you are well (obviously seek out medical attention if needed). Do not push yourself or others to return to a daily routine (what there is of it currently) early. Let your body have time to heal itself and create antibodies.
Good post and points....especially this bit.

I would ALSO add that anyone who is more vulnerable(the elderly or the immune compromised, etc) also do so as well(isolate) for awhile at least.
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JaqFrost: I got trapped in Poland when the border closed. My rental is up at the end of the month. The internet seems filled with people asking about getting into Poland, but nothing on leaving.
You should try to contact your embassy, they probably would know what you should do and what (paperwork) it takes.
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Spectre: Why aren't they looking at the same training manuals and research papers the professionals have. Isn't the health service and education system funded by the public?
Um. Yeah. If you think you can substitute years of training, education and performance evaluation of those, by skimming a few papers or 'training manuals', you're in for a rude awakening the next time your neighbourhood quack decides to recommend you homemade medicine to cure your illness. Which he got from the google interwebz. First paid ad link, to boot.

I mean come on. What are you even saying anymore? I don't think we are communicating at all, not even on a basic level.

As a thought experiment, I wonder if you could even accomplish obtaining enough information and reasonably process the knowledge. I mean first of all, most of the education material is rarely free, second - the research is also probably paywalled. Third, even if you had the time to 'do a self-taught home-based Master's in Mechanical Engineering', who is to say you assimilated that at all? Which exams did you take and pass? Which institution accredited you to build bridges for people? Who on earth would hire you?

Well that thought experiment was fun, yet completely irrelevant.

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Spectre: It isn't a fallacy because that isn't what I typed.The Problem is putting faith behind the groups who are doing the science and muddling it with science as a concept.
You were very vague actually to begin with, which is why I started my reply with 'Not sure what you meant by this, but...'.

Now that you clarified a bit, I would actually agree people shouldn't blindly trust say a scientist on their field of expertise without any critical thinking. Sad to say, many do not possess that faculty in any case, but what's a million times worse is doubting the experts for little reason at all and taking the word of the guy who has a 'gut feeling and a hunch' about this. The first reaction should be to listen to experts and doubt the non-experts. Not the other way around.

Also, I think you vastly overestimate the layman's available time and ability to research these complex issues by their own. At some point, it's completely ok to put some trust in expert scientists, who are subject to that peer review I talked about.
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richlind33: I'm thankful that no matter how much I learn, there is no end in sight, because learning makes me happy -- that, and good coffee. ;p
I feel the same (also about the coffee), but sometimes I feel overwhelmed and frustrated too. It's like with games - I'm building a backlog of things I want to learn more about... and it would last me several lifetimes :-)
Not sure what you meant by this, but there's a huge difference between critically accepting expert scientist's opinion, and believing in religion. I hear this all the time - 'you are a fanatic science believer, it's your religion!'. Well, that doesn't describe it at all.
The problem is that, as you said, many don't want to make the effort to do their own research. When one just takes what any expert says as the truth without looking into it it then becomes no different, imo, to one blindly accepting religious dogma.
it's clear people expect answers quickly and conveniently from experts, but what is baffling to I think many people, is how easily distorted 'facts' by politicans/people in power are taken as valid whereas scientists are looked down upon because 'buddy buddy peer review' and some other nonsense. Need I mention the recent example of a world leader basically repeating chloroquine is a cure, and some guy tragically and needlessly dying because of that misguided piece of info.
I don't think ANYONE should take most info without using common sense and checking/verifying what is said in it with other sources/people first.....that includes from politicians.

================================

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toxicTom: For the current situation I can only say "not enough data". I've read scientific and well argued pieces towards all kinds of ends - from "it's all exaggerated, it's not worse than the flu" to "this will end badly, even if we try to contain it" and "shutdown is the only way" to "economic collapse will be far worse than a million deaths of already old and sick people".

And this is something we can do something about - be nice to each other, watch out for each other. Offer help if needed and possible. Call the police when bad things happen.
I LOVE this post....especially the bolded bit....well said.
Post edited March 24, 2020 by GameRager
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rojimboo: ... and taking the word of the guy who has a 'gut feeling and a hunch' about this.
...
And a Youtube channel... that guy always has a Youtube channel.
For those still thinking it's just a flu (and there are even less deaths)

It's in Spain (just watch the video if you don't speak French) :
https://www.nouvelobs.com/coronavirus-de-wuhan/20200324.OBS26538/a-madrid-des-patients-allonges-sur-le-sol-dans-des-hopitaux-satures-a-cause-de-l-epidemie.html
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Spectre: Why aren't they looking at the same training manuals and research papers the professionals have. Isn't the health service and education system funded by the public?

It isn't a fallacy because that isn't what I typed.The Problem is putting faith behind the groups who are doing the science and muddling it with science as a concept.
Damn, I lost my initial reply to this somehow. Weird.

Anyways, I'm still not very clear on what you are saying. Do you think anyone could pick up medicine on their own, or engineering and be remotely as competent as someone who was rigorously trained and evaluated by institutions in those fields? I don't think that's remotely true. Nevermind the fact that you wouldn't even be able to access the same material, educational or research papers. There's a reason why mechanical engineers who build bridges and doctors who are responsible for life and death are accredited, after all. And whilst those might be hyperbolic examples, I don't see why it wouldn't apply to epidemiologists as well, or any scientist or expert for that matter.

As for blindly believing experts because they are experts - I actually think this is ok for most people who don't have the time or ability to thoroughly research a subject and draw conclusions based on that. Like I said, we defer to experts all the friggin time anyways, without a blink of an eye, in day to day activities. If anything, the current situation highlights the fact that experts should be trusted far more than they have been.


*EDIT* Nevermind, my initial reply is above there now. Weird. Feel free to ignore this one.
Post edited March 24, 2020 by rojimboo
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francksteel: For those still thinking it's just a flu (and there are even less deaths)

It's in Spain (just watch the video if you don't speak French) :
https://www.nouvelobs.com/coronavirus-de-wuhan/20200324.OBS26538/a-madrid-des-patients-allonges-sur-le-sol-dans-des-hopitaux-satures-a-cause-de-l-epidemie.html
It's one of the epicenters/currently going through peak or near peak infections and they didn't lock things down quick enough......one should bear that in mind when gauging how bad this is as well, I think.

(I agree it is bad, though)
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GameRager: The problem is that, as you said, many don't want to make the effort to do their own research. When one just takes what any expert says as the truth without looking into it it then becomes no different, imo, to one blindly accepting religious dogma.
Since you can't make your own research when it comes to quantum physics or SARS-CoV2 the best thing you can do is look into the track record of the people providing the info. How reputable they are, what payroll they're on.

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GameRager: I don't think ANYONE should take most info without using common sense and checking/verifying what is said in it with other sources/people first.....that includes from politicians.
"Common sense" is often a fallacy. We've been told that Vitamin C is good and alcohol disinfects and one thing can't be in the two places at the same time or a cat is either alive or dead - common sense. Yet there are conditions in nature when all of this is not true.
Or it's a matter of frame of reference. 1+1=3 may be wrong in maths, but very much true in biology.
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GameRager: I LOVE this post....especially the bolded bit....well said.
Thanks :-)
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toxicTom: Since you can't make your own research when it comes to quantum physics or SARS-CoV2 the best thing you can do is look into the track record of the people providing the info. How reputable they are, what payroll they're on.
Good advice, in general.

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toxicTom: "Common sense" is often a fallacy. We've been told that Vitamin C is good and alcohol disinfects and one thing can't be in the two places at the same time or a cat is either alive or dead - common sense. Yet there are conditions in nature when all of this is not true.
Or it's a matter of frame of reference. 1+1=3 may be wrong in maths, but very much true in biology.
I might've said the wrong thing for what I meant.......by "common sense" I meant people using their brains(and other sources/people to verify things they read) when reading info sources on this or anything else.

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toxicTom: Thanks :-)
It is refreshing to see someone(plus others) who keeps their head on their shoulders during such things, or speaks wisdom/good ideas in general.
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Not sure what you meant by this, but there's a huge difference between critically accepting expert scientist's opinion, and believing in religion. I hear this all the time - 'you are a fanatic science believer, it's your religion!'. Well, that doesn't describe it at all.
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GameRager: The problem is that, as you said, many don't want to make the effort to do their own research. When one just takes what any expert says as the truth without looking into it it then becomes no different, imo, to one blindly accepting religious dogma.
I explained why there's a huge difference in those cases, right after the bit you decided to quote only.

Here it is again, just in case you missed it somehow.

"Well, that doesn't describe it at all. The whole premise of the scientific method is that you scrutinise every bit of theory to poke holes in it, even assume it's wrong, and if after other expert peers in the field couldn't poke holes in it, and after some time with no rebuttals or refutes, it might be right. Religion is the opposite - it assumes it's right from the get-go, allows no critical thinking, and people worship it as the absolute truth. The two aren't even remotely the same, and someone who believes in science doesn't act like a fanatic believer. There is such a thing as critical thinking, you know."


it's clear people expect answers quickly and conveniently from experts, but what is baffling to I think many people, is how easily distorted 'facts' by politicans/people in power are taken as valid whereas scientists are looked down upon because 'buddy buddy peer review' and some other nonsense. Need I mention the recent example of a world leader basically repeating chloroquine is a cure, and some guy tragically and needlessly dying because of that misguided piece of info.
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GameRager: I don't think ANYONE should take most info without using common sense and checking/verifying what is said in it with other sources/people first.....that includes from politicians.
There you go again, assuming that
a) people have common sense
b) there is such a well-established concept such as common sense
c) people have the time and ability to verify/check the science behind the claim

I'm saying all of those things are wrong, for most people. Which is why it's perfectly ok to defer to experts in complex matters, if you just do a tiny bit of source critique initially and consider who the source is.

Guy who looks at a solar eclipse with a naked eye? <----------- don't take medical advice from this man
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richlind33: I'm thankful that no matter how much I learn, there is no end in sight, because learning makes me happy -- that, and good coffee. ;p
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toxicTom: I feel the same (also about the coffee), but sometimes I feel overwhelmed and frustrated too. It's like with games - I'm building a backlog of things I want to learn more about... and it would last me several lifetimes :-)
You're quite right about people being kind and helpful to each other. This is a huge part of what makes communities/societies advantageous. People working together can achieve far more than they can working as individuals.