Dray2k: Personally, I don't think 4-7% (the far-X leaning people politically) of the population can make much of a difference in spreading the virus.
Sorry, I'm not sure to understand this sentence.
Even if your lungs get partially destroyed (or "glassed" as some doctors say, because the affected lungs look a little bit like shattered glass), there is a good chance that even older people may partially recover, with some help.
That's good news, if those old people can survive the 7-9th day of the disease. For that, we need reanimation beds, intubators (spelling ?) . we don't have the same ratio in each countries, more on this beside.
It's been a week that Italy hospitals have to make choices for who get access to beds... And so who can have a chance to live or not.
France do that at least from yesterday.
I know it's "common" for hospitals/urgences to make such choices. Just it's now every day and for a lot of people.
I write this because people think that SARS-CoV-2 is a doomsday scenario (its not)
I think the worse case scenario is this one : 1% of the world population would die (after 50-70% of the population will get infected)
I think the scenario that will happen is this one (in one year from now) :
around 1% in the poorest countries
0.2 % in USA
0.01% to 0.05% in Asian countries with good participations of the population to the barrier gestures (sneezing in elbow, wearing masks, staying inside when asked to...) and some european countries.
0.1% in other european countries.
Why so much ? in the next 2-3 months there will likely a lot less death than those figures in western countries. But we won't be able to stop the spreading worldwide, and we will make the same mistakes this summer : lot of people traveling to foreign countries, some will come back for a second round this autumn. Can we stop the economy a second time in a year ? I don't think we will. So the UK solution will arise again (let the disease spread). May be more rationnal in 6 months (we may have a cure, not sure for a vaccine so soon).
That means tenth of thousands death in most countries and even millions in some.
Political effect is hard to anticipate, but certainly disastrous in countries where people will think (being right or not) that their government failed to do the right things in the right time.
Here in France there where voices (very few) to say by the end of january, more last days of february, that the situation was dangerous, and clearly and scientifically anticipated the today situation - knowing how hard it already was for our health care system.
There are (more than) rumors that the government knew what was coming, and did nothing (to save some 0.1% of GNB)
We will lose at least 2 points of GNB.
I've just seen that you are from Germany.
I don't know if you know what the big difference is between France/Italy and Germany :
That's 3 countries with more or less the same population count (70 - 60 and 90 millions if I'm not totally wrong)
But : France/Italy : around 7 000 beds for reanimations each - Germany : 25 000
Rate of death (death/known diseased cases) : 0.1% in Germany - your beds are OK, 1% in France, counting up, more than 7 % I think in Italy, counting up.
Maybe Germany will maintain less than 0.5% rate of death (even 25 000 beds may prove to be not enough, there are other diseases than Covid !).
France will rise to more than 5% in a few days. That could have been prevented in 2 ways in France :
1 - we cut in health budget for the last 30 years (it cost soooo much... Question : how much the difference in the rate of death between Germany / France will cost us ? Cynical : how much will that make us gain : less old people to cure, pay for retirement... ?)
2 - I had access to some conferences with and for french Ph.D, last one with the heads of the 2 french hospitals who took care of the first waves of covid patients.
What they said 4th march and what they said 10th march is not the same. Really not the same.
We are the 20th march. We have heroes in our hospitals. No less. It's a shame they were not listened to by the 10th march at least.
We lost 1 week (1st measure of confinement on the 17th march) . That means the peak of infected people at the same time will be about 3-4 times higher than it could have been. That means we are loosing people that could have been saved.
How much...
I don't know.
Of course, all above is just the thoughs I have reading and listening what I can about the disease, and knowing (not so badly) economics and our politicians in France.