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General discussionThe COVID-19 thread(1039 posts) (1039 posts) 
(1039 posts) 
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This is my favourite topic
Posted March 18, 2020
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DadJoke007: At least something good came from this pandemic. Eurovision Song Contest is canceled, I need to celebrate with a shot of whiskey later this evening.
Oh cool that is a cancer anyway.
Posted March 18, 2020
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DadJoke007: At least something good came from this pandemic. Eurovision Song Contest is canceled, I need to celebrate with a shot of whiskey later this evening.
Yeah, i hate Euro-βύζι-on myself.

Please, drink some whiskey for me too, since i cut off alcohol entirely, to celebrate on the occasion!

Fun note: i used to watch the Red Army Choir whenever they participated in it, but those unfortunately died :'(

Happy note: The malady known as Miss Sengen, is also gone, even though temporarily for 1 month only. Disaster unfortunately had to strike first, in order for common sense, logic and the old ways to re-emerge!
Post edited March 18, 2020 by KiNgBrAdLeY7
Posted March 18, 2020
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real.geizterfahr: People here are slowly realizing that 2020 is over before it started.
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ConsulCaesar: I hope things return to normal in time for the July/August season, and that domestic tourism will make up for the loss of international visitors, as it happened during some years of the previous economic crisis. Stay strong!
I don't think so... Sánchez already hinted that this'll take longer than just a few weeks. I think people wouldn't really understand if we let in tourists and risk a second weeks long quarantine for a mini-season of four or five weeks. People here (Mallorca - we're depending on mass tourism with millions of visitors) were celebrating when they decided to shut down the airport for tourists. We don't have any economy here, but we know that we'll be fucked if Corona breaks out on the island. I've read in some news that there's enough capacity for another 150 grave cases of Covid-19. That's enough for an island under normal circumstances. But when the virus spreads here, it's nothing but a joke. And flying infected people to Barcelona or Valencia doesn't sound like a good idea...

We're torn... We know that we need tourists, but we know that we can't let that many people in under the current circmstances. A few hundred thousand visitors won't make any difference here economically. We have five months where we need hotels near maximum capacity to make enough money for the whole year. That definitely won't happen.

The only good thing: Rental fees will probably come down to (more) sane levels. There was a study recently that people under 30 years would have to pay ~130% of their income to pay their rent! Practically everyone is living in a shared appartement or with their parents. I guess this'll change when seasonal workers stay away and AirBnB isn't a thing this year.
Posted March 18, 2020
went to the stores to get some perishables and there was plenty of product, might not be your brand. Indeed its been interesting to see what is left after panic buying, like the last kid chosen for the team. yes, there were bare shelves but the aisles were packed with stock that still needed to be unpacked. TP was out but there was paper towels. milk was down to lactaid only and choc milk or vegan stuff but there were 20 cases by the fridge with fresh stock and one poor clerk to unpack. she had to call security cuz some douchebag got in her face. plenty of bread and meats too. maybe the scarcity is different per area. i live in mid to high density city.

i wish people would turn off the 24/7 news coverage, check in once a day, but get away from all the hype. especially political driven stuff trying to score points or scew reality. cant wait for next week when the novelty wears off and peeps start getting ugly and acting out
Posted March 18, 2020
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ConsulCaesar: I hope things return to normal in time for the July/August season, and that domestic tourism will make up for the loss of international visitors, as it happened during some years of the previous economic crisis. Stay strong!
I also hope so(for those who rely on such).

That said, this is why it's a good idea that people don't put all their eggs into one basket(relying, in this case, on tourism income) IF they can help it.
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DadJoke007: Why am I not surprised this got high rated at a game forum? I don't complain though, the mere thought makes me giggle with glee.
Yup....oddly enough, though, a post awhile back about pandemic/plague related games(not poking fun at anyone or anything like that) by another user got buried in low rates.
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Dray2k: Also, that goes out to anyone reading this. Don't trust scaremongering articles that say that millions or billions are/will be infected by this. Just do the necessary hygeine precautions as laid out by the WHO and you will be fine.
While I don't think people should panic/worry needlessly over this(it would only make it worse for some), I ALSO don't think people should be too complacent/dismissive of this**.

Also it very likely won't be billions, but I think it's likely the infections(total) when all is said/done will breach the low millions at the very least(if they haven't already with the china/etc infections).

(**=I'm not saying you're doing so with this, btw)
Post edited March 18, 2020 by GameRager
Posted March 18, 2020
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sanscript: *snap*
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Dray2k: This is nothing new. I don't have the research papers on hand because it was quite a long time ago (decades), but fairly sure that I've read predictions that another outbreak would've happened somewhere around 2018 and 2019, reading papers about SARS from 2007 and the papers that discuss the most recent H1N1 outbreak around 2010 or so. I'm no virologist however, just a hobby statistician however.

Not only that, but scientists did predict another outbreak with upmost certainty in 2017. It clearly was a simple matter of time for many scientists that SARS-Cov-2 would've happened again.

I've read about the virus having pretty much no NAb resistance though, which is a very good thing. Fairly sure that counter pandemic measurements (like homogenic vaccination) may happen during mid/late august or even earlier.

There is also analysis of SARS-CoV that I've been reading recently, perhaps its of interests to some. Its a bit of a scary read, but news of SARS-CoV-2 just about 1:1 similar to past research of SARS, which means we're pretty much dealing with SARS MK2 now (which is is, if you look at the virus from an outsiders perspective, it basically upgraded its way to infect people but the symtoms of covid-19 and SARS are very similar, here is another piece of data that complement this). Without fearmongering too much, I think its common sense to become ready for SARS MK3 within the next 5 to 15 years again after this outbreak is over, depending how much this pandemia will accelerate things globally in a negative way.

One major rule applies, the more people prepare when it comes to another more potent rise of SARS, the higher the chances to counter another pandemic outbreak quickly. Right now I do suspect that infections rise to be arouind 475.000 people maximum, but it is my own liberal estimation/guesswork. Its quite a high number, but nothing too scary, considering it accounts for everyone globally.
By "infected" do you mean carriers *and* people who have symptoms?
Post edited March 18, 2020 by richlind33
Posted March 18, 2020
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Vanessa Hudgens(HS Musical actress) says some truthful yet seemingly "uncaring" remarks....and others get overly upset
For those who don't like clicking or who have limited time, she essentially said it's "crap" people might need to shut down most social things for 6 or so months, and also that even with all precautions people will still die/deaths are inevitable....so a bit too blunt, but she makes some sense imo.

Though of course this and other things prove one thing: People seem to like nice sounding lies/partial lies rather than harsh truths/likely truths.
Post edited March 18, 2020 by GameRager
Posted March 18, 2020
Article on good progress on the Covid-19 pandemic:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-good-news-newborn-baby-beats-bug-vaccine-on-way-and-italy-cases-slow/ar-BB11kQab?ocid=spartanntp
Posted March 18, 2020
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All I know is I've stocked up on ammo and barricaded my compound pretty tight.

Any zed tries to get in here, he's getting a brainbox full of buckshot.
Posted March 18, 2020
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kai2: While I do not particularly doubt this declaration, it is anecdotal ATM. More data is needed before it can be declared definitive. The French government is standing by their declaration but have only anecdotal evidence ATM.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/16/france-says-ibuprofen-may-aggravate-coronavirus-experts-say-more-evidence-is-needed/
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morolf: Sure, but still, if you've got symptoms that hint at Covid-19 infection, imo it might be a good idea not to take the risk of using those drugs.
The WHO is indeed now warning that anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS) could worsen effects of COVID-19. Data is still anecdotal but the WHO is siding with caution.

https://www.sciencealert.com/who-recommends-to-avoid-taking-ibuprofen-for-covid-19-symptoms

From reading, this is a suggestion but should not be taken as medical advice:

If you have COVID-19 symptoms, Paracetamol is suggested for fever reduction, but if you are on anti-inflammatories for other issues and / or prescribed by your physician, you should certainly contact your physician before discontinuing.
Posted March 18, 2020
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richlind33: By "infected" do you mean carriers *and* people who have symptoms?
I've left out carriers for now (in my mind at least), mostly because the amount of virus you have in your body does matter so whenever symptoms show up after the incubation time but also where the virus "sticks" (it infects parts of the neck or goes directly into the lungs, so it depends) and I don't know enough about SARS at all to know how much virus you need in order for the illness to actually break out. I should've written this in my initial post, through people can always ask questions and have fun even in times like these :>! I type stuff up to spark discussion after all.

Realistically its difficult to determine the true number for the time being but for now I stick to the close-to-500k-worldwide one as the hill to die on. I'm really doubtful that the number of infected/sick people will reach above that. More can be said about it after the next three weeks, at least thats what I say for now. Since we're about a week when the data of the worldwide outbreak became feaseable (3 weeks prior to today those people who're now ill became infected) and whether or not the scale of infected people in- or decreases. I'm also interested about daily infected people and whether or not we will be seeing the already projected decrease in numbers, due to the political decisions made worldwide.

EDIT: Addes a few things to clarify but had to erase the wikipedia link to what I mean by using the term "scale" because it couldn't be parsed properly. It should also be noted that I'm implying physiologically quantifyable when I mean infected, so even slightly ill people with covid-19 are included within my estimation.
Post edited March 19, 2020 by Dray2k
Posted March 18, 2020
As it looks, the mortality rate might be around 8,3% in Italy. Of course, there are hidden data that's hard to account for, but it's still horrifying. Those who claim that it's just like the flu forgot the Russian roulette part of it.
Posted March 18, 2020
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DadJoke007: As it looks, the mortality rate might be around 8,3% in Italy. Of course, there are hidden data that's hard to account for, but it's still horrifying. Those who claim that it's just like the flu forgot the Russian roulette part of it.
Only on Spain Seasonal flu at 9 March 2020 has caused 6500 deaths. Even being slightly immune. Data in the rest of the world should be similar.

Do not underestimate it.
Post edited March 18, 2020 by Gudadantza
Posted March 18, 2020
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Gudadantza: Only on Spain Seasonal flu at 9 March 2020 has caused 6500 deaths. Even being slightly immune. Data in the rest of the world will be similar.

Do not underestimate it.
There's a vaccine against flu which is at least partially effective. I get it every year. More importantly, health care workers get it, so the ordinary flu (absent some "Spanish flu"-like mutation) can't overload health care systems...which is exactly what Covid-19 seems to be doing in Italy right now, with appalling results. People who think one should just let this epidemic run its course (usually with a subtext that only the old and weak die) apparently haven't much thought about what a totally wrecked health care system would actually mean.
This "not worse than the flu" argument imo is just a silly coping mechanism, so one doesn't have to face the fact that we're in a truly terrible situation now where no easy way out exists.

I agree though that the flu is bad enough...which is why it's terrifying if Covid-19 gets established as a permanent additional threat.
Post edited March 18, 2020 by morolf
Posted March 18, 2020
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richlind33: By "infected" do you mean carriers *and* people who have symptoms?
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Dray2k: I've left out carriers for now (in my mind at least), mostly because the amount of virus you have in your body does matters whenever symptoms show up after the incubation time but also where the virus "sticks" (it infects parts of the neck or goes directly into the lungs, it depends) and I don't know enough about SARS at all to know how much virus you need in order for the illness to actually break out. I should've written this in my initial post, through people can always ask questions and have fun even in times like these :>! I type stuff up to spark discussion after all.

Realistically its difficult to determine the true number for the time being but for now I stick to the close-to-500k-worldwide one as the hill to die on. I'm really doubtful that the number of infected/sick people will reach above that. More can be said about it after the next three weeks I'd say. Since we're about a week when the data of the worldwide outbreak became feaseable (3 weeks prior to today those people who're now ill became infected) and whether or not the scale of infected people in- or decreases. I'm also interested about daily infected people and whether or not we will be seeing the already projected decrease in numbers, due to the political decisions made worldwide.

EDIT: Addes a few things to clarify but had to erase the wikipedia link to what I mean by using the term "scale" because it couldn't be parsed properly. It should also be noted that I'm implying physiologically quantifyable when I mean infected, so even slightly ill people with covid-19 are included within my estimation.
AFAIK, carriers are people who have immunity and won't get sick.

Does anyone know how long carriers remain carriers?
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionThe COVID-19 thread(1039 posts) (1039 posts) 
(1039 posts)