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GameRager: I meant if it got so bad that many were already sick(like major chunks of the population), and also just one going outside maybe and sitting in the sun in their yards/etc.
I don't think "sitting in the sun in your yard" is really the issue, nor probably going for a solitary walk, I doubt the virus can be caught easily by air if you just walk around in the open. The issue is avoiding other people...which isn't that easy even for social recluses (I know, I'm one myself, but one still has to go shopping sometimes). Shutting down much of social life for years - and maybe redirecting much of it online - is bound to lead to many problems.
Post edited March 17, 2020 by morolf
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Flyingfluffypiglet: Looks like now all of EU's borders will be, finally, closed down. In France, Macron has ordered citizens to stay home, but given the rampant insecurity and likelihood of unrest, Army trucks were seen being deployed in some cities, including Paris, (see picture). Other countries such as Spain have recently deployed their military.

Meanwhile, for us in the UK.... Well apart from us being 'warned' to avoid non-essential contact (what sensible people do ANYWAY!), nothing, nada, ziltch.
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GameRager: Wait wait wait....lemme get this straight.....France has AN ARMY?!?

(To all: The above is a joke. It is a bit of an un-pc joke, though, so if it[or ANY future joke I make here] bothers anyone I will issue an apology to anyone offended via PM if they ask for such)

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Flyingfluffypiglet: Actually for now but who knows how long, France has for now allowed for people to go out for food/medicine, but these are to be controlled and penalties put in place.
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GameRager: Hopefully this won't sound wrong(how I say it), but imo the penalties are a laugh.

I mean what are they going to do....jail 1/10(or more) of the population? And even if it's just fines....do they really expect people(if enough were fined) to pay them during all this?
Ironically the french army has fought in more wars than any other country, trip out right.
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morolf: The issue is avoiding other people...which isn't that easy even for social recluses (I know, I'm one myself, but one still has to go shopping sometimes). Shutting down much of social life for years - and maybe redirecting much of it online - is bound to lead to many problems.
True.....thankfully I am used to it by now, though I am sure most aren't & this must be more like hell for some people.
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ramsey84c: Ironically the french army has fought in more wars than any other country
Plus the citizenry were very instrumental in liberating France during WW2, etc. They are a very strong willed and strong people.

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ramsey84c: , trip out right.
I didn't get this bit...what did you mean by this?

(Maybe i'm tired and need rest to figure it out...if you could explain that bit i'd appreciate it)
Post edited March 17, 2020 by GameRager
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morolf: The issue is avoiding other people...which isn't that easy even for social recluses (I know, I'm one myself, but one still has to go shopping sometimes). Shutting down much of social life for years - and maybe redirecting much of it online - is bound to lead to many problems.
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GameRager: True.....thankfully I am used to it by now, though I am sure most aren't & this must be more like hell for some people.

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ramsey84c: Ironically the french army has fought in more wars than any other country
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GameRager: Plus the citizenry were very instrumental in liberating France during WW2, etc. They are a very strong willed and strong people.

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ramsey84c: , trip out right.
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GameRager: I didn't get this bit...what did you mean by this?
it just kinda means like whoa thats cool.
If you were to say we landed on mars, I would say whoa trip out:o
Post edited March 17, 2020 by ramsey84c
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ramsey84c: it just kinda means like whoa thats cool.
Thanks for the explanation, man....have a good one.

*Going off to play Deus Ex for probably the 20th time in my life....seems oddly appropriate for some reason*
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morolf: This report is pretty scary, to put it mildly:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Looks like extreme lockdown measures might be the only way to prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths just in Britain...and they might need to be in force for two thirds of the time, until there's a vaccine (which can be expected in late 2021 at the earliest).
I don't know if such measures are sustainable over such a long time...and what, if there's never a vaccine?
I've been pretty pessimistic about this situation for the last few weeks, but this is a real downer, really grim prospects.
Looks like fear-mongering, to me. "Extreme lockdown measures" combined with our extreme economic disparity will kill more people than COVID-19 -- FAR more.
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richlind33: Looks like fear-mongering, to me. "Extreme lockdown measures" combined with our extreme economic disparity will kill more people than COVID-19 -- FAR more.
Stop being reasonable. I mean, what would a digital newspaper get from fearmongering? It's not like their entire livelihood and economy is based around people clicking on their article.
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DadJoke007: Stop being reasonable. I mean, what would a digital newspaper get from fearmongering? It's not like their entire livelihood and economy is based around people clicking on their article.
Christ, it's not a "digital newspaper", it's a study by epidemiologists from Imperial college London, I'd think they're a bit more competent than you or Richlind to judge the issue.
Honestly, this "but think of the economic consequences" which seems to be the new version of "It's just a flu" is starting to piss me off, what the hell is so hard to understand about the fact that this epidemic is going to collapse health care systems and kill hundreds of thousands of people (which also will have massive economic consequences), unless drastic measures are taken? It's already happening right before our eyes in Italy, and yet still it seems to be beyond your imagination. No wonder this is going to turn into a disaster unprecedented in our lifetime.
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morolf: Christ, it's not a "digital newspaper", it's a study by epidemiologists from Imperial college London, I'd think they're a bit more competent than you or Richlind to judge the issue.
I was just lazy with elaborating, I apologize for that. Newspapers have everything to gain by being hyperbolic, it was just wide criticism of journalism in general and why it might be good to be skeptical until getting to the root of the source. I didn't mean for it to come off as a dismissal of the issue in itself, but I can see why it came off as such and that is on me and my lazy ass.

In general, new data should always be considered and put into account so we can be cautious until we know with certainty. Only an idiot would be dead sure about something we don't have enough data about.

Edit: I clicked the link now and realized I misread the link. I thought it was a newspaper and got skeptical when It's actually a publication, not a journalist take on a publication. Way to look like a dumbass.
Post edited March 17, 2020 by user deleted
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DadJoke007: I was just lazy with elaborating, I apologize for that. Newspapers have everything to gain by being hyperbolic, it was just wide criticism of journalism in general and why it might be good to be skeptical until getting to the root of the source. I didn't mean for it to come off as a dismissal of the issue in itself, but I can see why it came off as such and that is on me and my lazy ass.

In general, new data should always be considered and put into account so we can be cautious until we know with certainty. Only an idiot would be dead sure about something we don't have enough data about.
The study already seems to be on its way to becoming the basis for government policy in the US and Britain, apparently Trump has already hinted at a lockdown until July or August (!).
The economic and social consequences will be terrible of course, but so they would if one just let the disease run wild (which would kill huge numbers of people). Either way we're pretty much screwed for at least the next year and a half (and that's assuming a vaccine can be developed). I was already pretty pessimistic, but this is way worse than I would have imagined.
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morolf: The study already seems to be on its way to becoming the basis for government policy in the US and Britain, apparently Trump has already hinted at a lockdown until July or August (!).
The economic and social consequences will be terrible of course, but so they would if one just let the disease run wild (which would kill huge numbers of people). Either way we're pretty much screwed for at least the next year and a half (and that's assuming a vaccine can be developed). I was already pretty pessimistic, but this is way worse than I would have imagined.
In other words, it looks like the people who were purchasing food and toilet paper in bulk might have had the right idea. At least from a self-preservation point of view. If this is as bad as it looks at first glance, it's probably hard to even grasp how our day-to-day lives will pan out in the near future.

We can only hope it won't be so bad, but the worst-case-scenario doesn't look good at all.
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DadJoke007: Stop being reasonable. I mean, what would a digital newspaper get from fearmongering? It's not like their entire livelihood and economy is based around people clicking on their article.
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morolf: Christ, it's not a "digital newspaper", it's a study by epidemiologists from Imperial college London, I'd think they're a bit more competent than you or Richlind to judge the issue.
Honestly, this "but think of the economic consequences" which seems to be the new version of "It's just a flu" is starting to piss me off, what the hell is so hard to understand about the fact that this epidemic is going to collapse health care systems and kill hundreds of thousands of people (which also will have massive economic consequences), unless drastic measures are taken? It's already happening right before our eyes in Italy, and yet still it seems to be beyond your imagination. No wonder this is going to turn into a disaster unprecedented in our lifetime.
Since you bring up thinking, you might want to ask who commissioned the study. If it's the same people who consciously chose to *not* maintain a modicum of preparedness for a public health emergency that health experts have been warning about for years now -- our "public servants" -- then you might also want to ask why the general public should see COVID-19 as a greater threat than these "public servants" -- assuming you have a healthy instinct for self-preservation.

BTW, do you have any idea what the average rate of reproducibility is for scientific studies these days? Here's a hint, in case you need it: it's well under 50%.
Post edited March 17, 2020 by richlind33
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DadJoke007: In other words, it looks like the people who were purchasing food and toilet paper in bulk might have had the right idea. At least from a self-preservation point of view.
Well, I did that (to a moderate degree), started already on 24 February, after the first quarantines in Italy. However I thought of a quarantine of four weeks or so...the idea that something like this could continuously last for half a year or so would have seemed fantastic to me, but it looks quite possible now.
No matter what happens, looks like we're in for a rough time.
Post edited March 17, 2020 by morolf
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morolf: The study already seems to be on its way to becoming the basis for government policy in the US and Britain, apparently Trump has already hinted at a lockdown until July or August (!).
The economic and social consequences will be terrible of course, but so they would if one just let the disease run wild (which would kill huge numbers of people). Either way we're pretty much screwed for at least the next year and a half (and that's assuming a vaccine can be developed). I was already pretty pessimistic, but this is way worse than I would have imagined.
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DadJoke007: In other words, it looks like the people who were purchasing food and toilet paper in bulk might have had the right idea. At least from a self-preservation point of view. If this is as bad as it looks at first glance, it's probably hard to even grasp how our day-to-day lives will pan out in the near future.

We can only hope it won't be so bad, but the worst-case-scenario doesn't look good at all.
You're missing something very important: there is food, and there is food production. Without local production, under local control, we are slaves, at the mercy of people who all too frequently behave like monsters.
Fourth day of quarantine.

Raining outside.

Recluded all day in house with my partner, without can job, reading, cleaning the house, playing videogames more than in all my life, watching tv and so on. Worst thing is not to have a pet, i miss it to exit more. A month in the same way is very very hard, hope be less.

Something good of this crisis: baby boom incoming!! :)