Posted January 31, 2016
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A̶ ̶c̶a̶m̶e̶l̶ ̶m̶e̶r̶c̶h̶a̶n̶t̶... A football (that's soccer for you Americans) team plays better at home than it does away. One year, in order to qualify for the finals they have to beat a team from across the country twice (at least) in three matches. They are given a choice of playing either
Home then Away then Home
or
Away then Home then Away
Naturally they select the first option in order to play twice at home.
Next year however the rules change. They have to win two games (at least) in a row in order to qualify. They are given the same choices. Which one should they choose?
Since there is a 50% chance of getting the right answer by guessing (and since the way the problem is posed seems to suggest what the correct answer is), I'll need some sort of explanation or calculation besides the answer.