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General discussionSecret Hitler 3 - Beyond Stardom!(800 posts)(800 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted January 27, 2020
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JoeSapphire: I'm a little concerned myself that RWarehall and ZFR have played us and this government is doomed to pass an F and give the fascists an execution, but at least we're not nominating Hitler as chancellor and I think even with one liberal down the odds that we can beat the game are still strong.
Still, I'm holding onto my faith in zfr and rw. I've got a good feeling about this.
The only thing I've tried to do is my best to minimize the risk that this Chancellor is Hitler. Hopefully I have succeeded and my faith you aren't Hitler is rewarded.

Should this government not pass a Liberal policy, all bets are off.
As the odds become 1/22 or 4.5% that 9Fs occur naturally to start after the reshuffle in this situation.
Then we would have an actual 95% to be talking about...
Posted January 27, 2020
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JoeSapphire: I see a lot of myself reflected in scene's behaviour - I have totally been in that situation where it looks like you're about to lose and you're the only person who's aware of the danger and no-one will listen to you it's horrible.
Are you Hitler?
Posted January 27, 2020
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ZFR: If it's a 1000$ bet with a known cheater, I'd say there is almost 100% he's lying.
I made a mistake with this example. If this were a bet with a cheater, there is of course a 50% chance Head came naturally so the cheater didn't have to lie. 100% chance of lying could be for example with a pathological liar, who just wants to lie for the sake of lying.
The point still stands. "%-age probability of lying about an event" depends on the person't credibility, circumstances... etc as well; not just on the probability of the event itself.
Posted January 27, 2020
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JoeSapphire: Still, I'm holding onto my faith in zfr and rw. I've got a good feeling about this.
Hopefully you get an L card from ZFR and win this for us. :)
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ZFR: Are you Hitler?
Hopefully he isn't....I want to keep playing. :)

*The Shadow flaps his cape and alternately nibbles on it due to hunger, casting fervent glances at Pooka/OP in the hopes that food will arrive*
Posted January 27, 2020
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JoeSapphire: I see a lot of myself reflected in scene's behaviour - I have totally been in that situation where it looks like you're about to lose and you're the only person who's aware of the danger and no-one will listen to you it's horrible.
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ZFR: Are you Hitler?
I'm not Hitler! And here's proof:

uuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhmm...
Posted January 27, 2020
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ZFR: Are you Hitler?
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JoeSapphire: I'm not Hitler! And here's proof:

uuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhmm...
Because I agree with you regarding scene. Which means the total support from everyone else is a bit worrying.

By elimination, H can't be GR (you investigated him, so he can only be H to your F). I don't think it's RW for many reasons (why draw attention by voting NO to second government? Why attempt to draw investigation?). So by elimination it has to be Lift, RFG, micro. Or you.
But Lift, RFG, micro are giving full support to this government. Is it you after all?
Posted January 27, 2020
tbh, scene has been on the outside before as the only sane F screaming at me (his fellow f in my 2nd discord game) to get with it but i thought it was double talk to confuse the enemy so i did the exact opposite in that game. we lost.
fun times. (Pooka can confirm) also, the roadmap for the Fs.
Posted January 27, 2020
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JoeSapphire: I'm not Hitler! And here's proof:

uuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhmm...
You forgot "uhhhhhhhhhhhh"

Also you could always show everyone your "totally not hitler" card....oh wait, that isn't a thing, now is it?
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ZFR: But Lift, RFG, micro are giving full support to this government. Is it you after all?
Where did RFG say that? Pooka said he still hadn't voted just a short time ago.
Posted January 27, 2020
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JoeSapphire: I'm not Hitler! And here's proof:

uuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhmm...
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ZFR: Because I agree with you regarding scene. Which means the total support from everyone else is a bit worrying.

By elimination, H can't be GR (you investigated him, so he can only be H to your F). I don't think it's RW for many reasons (why draw attention by voting NO to second government? Why attempt to draw investigation?). So by elimination it has to be Lift, RFG, micro. Or you.
But Lift, RFG, micro are giving full support to this government. Is it you after all?
I could have done with you thinking about this in the last game >:|

Maybe RW's F and they're hoping he's stashed an L and luck's on their side. Maybe you're F and they're happy to get the power of execution. But would you start bringing this up now if you were F? Yah perhaps. It'd be pretty good gaming to do it.
Maybe they don't see a way that they can get themselves in government so they're just throwing themselves on the mercy of the deck?

Probably I should be panicking right now... Maybe I should start?


...aah seems like effort though
Posted January 27, 2020
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JoeSapphire: Maybe they don't see a way that they can get themselves in government so they're just throwing themselves on the mercy of the deck?
I'd have accepted that at the beginning of the new deck. But now? Even if the deck is ultra-merciful and I get FFF, the next logical step is me+GR and there is no more mercy. What are they counting on?
The only way deck can show mercy is if you or (inclusive or) RW hid an L.
If you AND RW are both Liberal, then GR must be Liberal by your investigation. Then Fascists have no option but to try an 11th hour attempt. They can't rely on deck mercy.

Yet they don't.

Or rather one person does: scene.

But if you're saying scene is Liberal...
Posted January 27, 2020
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ZFR: Yet they don't.

Or rather one person does: scene.

But if you're saying scene is Liberal...
It seems to me that he is, but maybe that's just because I'm seeing myself in his behaviour.
I don't know why the fascists aren't making a scene.

If RW's H they're maybe hoping they can get him into chancellorship if me & gamerager can be made to look bad? Doesn't seem too likely either - especially with RW's "investigate me!" maneuover.

If zfr's F I can see how getting these doubts about this government now before he passes me two Fs might give him credit over me, but that would be displaying an impressive ability to think one step ahead which I'm not sure I care to see on the gog forums. I'm not really feeling that either.

If scene's F then probably RW is too... and scene was against getting RW investigated and backtracked on that after the event... hm... RW/Scene/RedFire as a team? Perhaps possible but seems a bit hard to swallow.

I dunno, it's interesting
Posted January 27, 2020
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ZFR: If you AND RW are both Liberal, then GR must be Liberal by your investigation. Then Fascists have no option but to try an 11th hour attempt. They can't rely on deck mercy.

Yet they don't.

Or rather one person does: scene.

But if you're saying scene is Liberal...
I don't think that scene is Liberal. But I do think that his panic is genuine. And maybe RFG didn't write anything and didn't vote yet because he doesn't know how to argue against this government without giving himself away. Maybe I was wrong suspecting Micro as Scene's sidekick and it's RFG after all.

But if you want to reconsider your nomination, we can vote down this government and next will be my turn. I will nominate you and we bring this thing home. You're not term locked and you are mostly trusted by everyone but Scene ... Only problem: I don't know whether you are Hitler after all and are planning exactly that. Unlikely, considering the way you played, but possible.
Posted January 27, 2020
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JoeSapphire: but that would be displaying an impressive ability to think one step ahead which I'm not sure I care to see on the gog forums.
...

I hate it when people do that.
"ZFR must be Townie because as scum he wouldn't have been able to...".
Posted January 27, 2020
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JoeSapphire: but that would be displaying an impressive ability to think one step ahead which I'm not sure I care to see on the gog forums.
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ZFR: ...

I hate it when people do that.
"ZFR must be Townie because as scum he wouldn't have been able to...".
I didn't say I didn't think you could! I said I'd find it distasteful.
Posted January 27, 2020
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supplementscene: Unless he was a very experienced player with loads of time on his hands Hitler would claim he was given what he was given, yes.
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Lifthrasil: Well, if I were Hitler and were Chancellor, I would wait for the President to state what he gave me. The Fascist don't have any chat in this game, as you know. And Hitler doesn't know who his buddies are. But the cards can offer a way to communicate. If I were a Fascist and would give my Hitler some cards, I could afterwards lie about the cards I gave him. Then Hitler would know that I'm his buddy - and would confirm whatever I lied about to avoid conflict. That's information gain for him, which is worth a lot. When he gets 2L, the gain is even bigger, because it would allow the F-H pair to silently bury an L. To make these tricks possible, Hitler has to wait for his president to state what he gave him first and in an online game he can do so without arousing suspicion by just not posting until his president has posted.

That you choose to ignore these well known tactics, with your 1000s of games of experience, is very telling.
Because you'd do something as Hitler, doesn't mean Joe not doing that means he is not Hitler. You're seriously stetching and there's an agenda behind it.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionSecret Hitler 3 - Beyond Stardom!(800 posts)(800 posts)
(800 posts)