supplementscene: How about :
So we combine the possibility a fascist isn't in play, so 3/8*3/7*3/6*3/5 = 4.8% (rounded up), so 95.2% chance 1 is in play combined with the 78% possibility. So 0.78x0.952 = 0.74
So 74% chance Joe is fascist, correct? Or is my 4.8% wrong?
RWarehall: How about there are 8 players...3 of them are Fascist. Odds Joe is Fascist is 3 in 8 or 37.5%. But we don't really care so much if he's just a Fascist, right? Because only Hitler is the real problem, so 1 in 8 or 12.5%.
Assuming you are Fascist, Scene, that changes those odds: 2 in 7 to be Fascist or 28.6%
or if you are Hitler: 0% chance to be a real problem. or 1 in 7 (14.3%) chance to be Hitler.
See how you can manipulate statistics?
But if you go back to the first run through the deck, what are the odds you get 4L passed out of 5. Not only do you have to get lucky with the cards, but also have all governments pass the right ones. Instead you completely discount the luck we had then and laser focus on the bad streak.
Let's take coin flipping. Heads/Heads/Heads/Tails/Tails. You are ignoring the first 3 Heads flipped and are saying since the last two flips both came out Tails there is a 75% chance the coin is doctored in some way.
I'm not sure why you're defending your soft conflict. It's very likely 1 or both of you dropped while playing previous L Cards to get Liberal credit.