While I'm voting for him and he might not be, my prediction is Rager is Hitler. It would explain him voting yes to every single goverment. If he's Hitler he's desperate for a fascist to rescue him. I'd predict his fascist buddies would be within Lift, Microfish, Redfire and Joe. Not aiming to shade anyone, but just some fun predictions, we'll see how far off base I was at the end of the game.
supplementscene: Statistically a 5 Liberal Policy (why can't I say blue it's easier??) is more common than a 6 Liberal Policy deck and we have 2 players that played 2 Liberal governments. If we had a 4 or 3 Liberal Policy deck I would lock the player but that isn't the case.
ZFR: I'm not complaining about what you plan to do. I'm complaining about you telling GR that.
Joe could investigate Rager on the event of 3 fascist policies or a conflict. The only downside is if Joe is a fascist who got 2 Liberal policies when he was President and if Rager is Hitler. Also it maybe beneficial for Joe to investigate you for the special election.
GameRager: Seems a bit risky...might be fun, but would still be risky....decisions, decisions.
JoeSapphire: yeah, maybe yeah.
I was just thinking about zfr's point that 'the likelyhood zfr and joe dropped an L is equal' is not verifiable; and it got me thinking about the possibilty zfr had 3 Ls and lied and knows the next governments is doomed to fail and that made me remember how he pointed out the flaws in scene's plan and questioned me about whether I thought it was a good idea or no
- if I imagine zfr knew that getting two free Fs passed before the next government is doomed would be good for him, but knew that he'd have to be the one to lead the doomed government it makes sense that he's be non-commital maybe...
also scene's been asserting that zfr is more tested than joe, but as RW points out it's not so. Maybe zfr's offense at scene's recent treatment of gamerager is creating a little distance between an overzealous teammate?
does that make sense with what I think about zfr's character? Maybe the last bit is a little fanciful.
hum...
If ZFR was Fascist and you were Liberal why would he not go into conflict with you and instead play a Liberal policy? Even if ZFR was Hitler it would be optimal to pass a liberal card in case he's playing with a fascist.
supplementscene: Statistically a 5 Liberal Policy (why can't I say blue it's easier??) is more common than a 6 Liberal Policy deck and we have 2 players that played 2 Liberal governments. If we had a 4 or 3 Liberal Policy deck I would lock the player but that isn't the case.
Let's say the next 2 hands are both fascist draws - Joe has a 38% draw of 3 fascist policies and Rager has a decent percentage chance. Who would you prefer RWarehall to pick as chancellor? Rager or an untested player?
RWarehall: I gave you the real odds...why do you keep repeating your made up numbers?
Assuming this government passes and we don't just win, the odds of the next government drawing 3F is 54.5%.
And no offense to ZFR, I think he's probably Liberal, but the 4th government proved little since as President, he was forced to pass at least one Liberal policy to his chancellor. That act, is he Liberal ensuring a 4th L against a chancellor he can't be 100% sure about? Or is he a Fascist passing 2L knowing his partner is Liberal and would pass a Liberal policy anyway, thus denying Joe more confirmation? Nothing about that government proves anything. Even a Hitler/Fascist combo might pass a Liberal policy and hope for some luck thinking keeping Hitler looking Liberal might be a better chance to win.
Okay I hadn't read your calculations until after making that post. The 38% must be when less L Policy is on the table.
ZFR was forced to play Liberal policy if he was playing with a Liberal. But why would a fascist play Liberal policy by choice with a Liberal in the first place? So the only way ZFR is fascist is if Joe is also fascist or if ZFR is Hitler is another possibility.
Also believe it or not I've played a good few games where 3 fascists were 4 of the players in play and they played all L Policy until they hit 4 Liberal cards on the table. While I'm not sure it's optimal it tends to give them Liberal credit when they start claiming 3 fascist policy cards