It seems that you're using an outdated browser. Some things may not work as they should (or don't work at all).
We suggest you upgrade newer and better browser like: Chrome, Firefox, Internet Explorer or Opera

×
Community
General discussionSecret Hitler 3 - Beyond Stardom!(800 posts)(800 posts)
(800 posts)
Pages:
1
10
20
24
25
26
27
28
40
50
54
This is my favourite topic
Posted January 17, 2020
avatar
supplementscene: OK I have a strategy I'd like a discussion on and it will allow us to either confirm whether fascists are in play and give Rager/RWarehall 100% chance of playing the final policy. If we top deck twice - we could turn over a Liberal policy or Rager will have 2 Liberal policies in his hand and will be able to force a liberal policy through. If there is a Liberal in RWarehall and Rager a Liberal policy will be passed
Intriguing! I kind of love it!

Top decking twice would get us to microfish, so the only reachable sanctioned president would be ZFR - I'd still be term locked so ZFR would have to pick between RW or GR, but that doesn't look like a problem.

avatar
supplementscene: I personally find ZFR more proven than Joe as we know he played a Liberal policy on choice and that he forced the 4th Liberal policy. In theory Joe could have received 2 Liberal policies and 1 fascist and discarded a Liberal one.
In THEORY zfr could have received 3 liberal policies and discarded a Liberal one. Statistically there's as much chance that the policy zfr discarded is liberal as the policy Joe discarded is liberal.
Posted January 17, 2020
avatar
supplementscene: OK I have a strategy I'd like a discussion on and it will allow us to either confirm whether fascists are in play and give Rager/RWarehall 100% chance of playing the final policy. If we top deck twice - we could turn over a Liberal policy or Rager will have 2 Liberal policies in his hand and will be able to force a liberal policy through. If there is a Liberal in RWarehall and Rager a Liberal policy will be passed

If they don't play a Liberal policy they are pretty much confirmed fascist and we can demand ZFR is the Special Election. An argument will probably ensue as RWarehall will also demand the SE but Liberals will Top Deck to ZFR. I personally find ZFR more proven than Joe as we know he played a Liberal policy on choice and that he forced the 4th Liberal policy. In theory Joe could have received 2 Liberal policies and 1 fascist and discarded a Liberal one.

Ofcourse we can just play as we were as we lose the chance to use the investigation etc if we TD the investigation.
Topping twice would work well if there is a L policy left.

But what if someone lied? Then by topping twice we guarantee 3 F policies in a row. First we get F, F from topping twice, then GR+RW get FFF and have to pass a F policy even if both are liberal.
Posted January 17, 2020
avatar
JoeSapphire: Statistically there's as much chance that the policy zfr discarded is liberal as the policy Joe discarded is liberal.
No.

You can't say "the chance that X discarded", because this depends on two factors: whether X received said policy in the first place, and whether he would decide to discard it later. So:

P(X discarded L) = P(X received L) * P(X would decide to discard|X received L)

So while we can calculate the probability of X receiving L as his third card, we can't calculate the probability of him discarding it without going into his mind. If he's L (5/8) we can assume he's telling the truth if he's H (1/8) probably, though we can't be sure, if he's F (2/8) he could be lying, but again we can't be sure.

So you meant to say: "Statistically there's as much chance that the third policy zfr received is liberal as the chance that the third policy Joe received is liberal."
Posted January 17, 2020
avatar
ZFR: So you meant to say: "Statistically there's as much chance that the third policy zfr received is liberal as the chance that the third policy Joe received is liberal."
alrightyeahthatiswhatimeantthanks
Posted January 17, 2020
avatar
ZFR: So you meant to say: "Statistically there's as much chance that the third policy zfr received is liberal as the chance that the third policy Joe received is liberal."
avatar
JoeSapphire: alrightyeahthatiswhatimeantthanks
What about the top twice of scene?

My first thought was: huh? My second was: That's actually a pretty neat idea. My third was: but what if someone (not Joe! I trust you!) lied. Then we get F, F, FFF. Not too good.
Posted January 17, 2020
avatar
JoeSapphire: alrightyeahthatiswhatimeantthanks
avatar
ZFR: What about the top twice of scene?

My first thought was: huh? My second was: That's actually a pretty neat idea. My third was: but what if someone (not Joe! I trust you!) lied. Then we get F, F, FFF. Not too good.
I guess the risk is part of why I love the idea.

But I also don't think the risk is that significant. How often does an L get dropped? How often does a president who dropped an L also pass an L as chancellor?
Posted January 17, 2020
avatar
Microfish_1: after ye learn you the english lan-goo-age and start callin it...grub
Eww......that's what some call wurmz o.0


avatar
Microfish_1: Pooka, be entertained!

Also, I appreciate Book and Zeo in the story flavor!
I also love the flavor so far. :D
========================================================

avatar
ZFR: If that happens we won't be going into a reshuffle. We'll be opening a champagne bottle.
:D :D :D


avatar
ZFR: *Sigh*

Sure. 1:2.
As the saying goes: Close enough for govt work ;)
=======================================================

Also to OP: Vote sent in a minute...sorry for the delay :)
Posted January 17, 2020
Secret Hitler 3??? What ? :)
Sorry, I'm newbie and don't understand all the things you're talking about, could you explain me?
Posted January 17, 2020
avatar
GoodFollow: Secret Hitler 3??? What ? :)
Sorry, I'm newbie and don't understand all the things you're talking about, could you explain me?
This is a forum game only for certain members who signed up when it was announced. I don't mind you posting but I am sure others and the game host might not like it.

There are other threads to find out about such games, though, and to sign up when they are announced.

One is here:
Forum Mafia Admin and Discussion
There new games are announced when signups start, though you need to become familiar a bit with how they work first so it's best to read up on them a bit or ask questions there before signing up.

Hope all this helps...have a good one. :)
Posted January 17, 2020
You also seem to be forgetting another possibility...
What if the person we shift to is Hitler? Then we could end up with 3 Fs unless the 40% chance that the L is one of the first two cards. And we would still be left wondering whether it was the new president discarding the L or a past President. Plus Secret Hitler would be active.

Whereas, if GameRager draws poorly or is Hitler, we are still only at 1 F. I might also be more willing to hear it out if it wasn't Scene who tried to shift us away from our current pairs at the beginning of the game, or tried to dictate our exclusions in favor of himself in government.

None of the Core 4 are safe from being Hitler. ZFR as Hitler and drawing 2 Ls would be stuck passing the 4th L. Joe had no choice. 3rd L, a Hitler may still go along passing Ls.

I'm inclined to continue what we started, although GameRager's votes do make me worry a bit.
Posted January 17, 2020
There is... yet another aspect of this. Topping twice would require us to vote NO to 7 governments. Can you imagine how boring that would be?
Posted January 17, 2020
avatar
RWarehall: I'm inclined to continue what we started, although GameRager's votes do make me worry a bit.
Two replies.....first the silly: Just call me yes man...or Jim Carrey.....whatever works.

Then the serious reply: What concerns you about them, if I may ask?

If it's them being all YES so far, eh I am trying to have a bit of fun with the game & so far it has worked in our favor anyways.
========================================================

avatar
ZFR: There is... yet another aspect of this. Topping twice would require us to vote NO to 7 governments. Can you imagine how boring that would be?
It's been a bit boring sometimes in this game so far...so instead of short and mildly boring the game will be long and moderately boring.....eh, we could all take a nap after votes and actions maybe? ;)
Posted January 17, 2020
Still waiting for votes, I set. Do we have anything to talk about apart from mathematics?
Posted January 17, 2020
avatar
GameRager: Then the serious reply: What concerns you about them, if I may ask?

If it's them being all YES so far, eh I am trying to have a bit of fun with the game & so far it has worked in our favor anyways.
That is the concern. The worry you might be trying to shift this away from yourself as the 5th vote. If you are Hitler, you might not want to be forced to make it fail and risk losing a 3 F chancellorship.
Posted January 17, 2020
avatar
Lifthrasil: Still waiting for votes, I set. Do we have anything to talk about apart from mathematics?
In the midst of being medicated and still a bit ill, I forgot to do it....I sent it a minute or so ago.

Now let's hope everyone else did as well and we can proceed.

(As for what to do while we wait: "We could order a pizza.....I keep asking the director where the food is at but I get no replies....it's sad I tells ya.")
================================================================

avatar
RWarehall: That is the concern. The worry you might be trying to shift this away from yourself as the 5th vote. If you are Hitler, you might not want to be forced to make it fail and risk losing a 3 F chancellorship.
Have you noted I am new and very poor even at mafia due to my play style....if I were Hitler(and even to a less extent a fascist) i'd make a poor one indeed.

I thank you for you seemingly thinking i'd be able to plan like that in a game I am very new at, at the very least.
Pages:
1
10
20
24
25
26
27
28
40
50
54
This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionSecret Hitler 3 - Beyond Stardom!(800 posts)(800 posts)
(800 posts)