Blotunga was already in power.

And of course I am stating the obvious. That was the point. blotunga tried to play the 'Hey, I was Hitler last time. How likely is it that I'm Hitler again?' card. Which is a fallacy. The likelihoods are independent. So the likelihood of becoming Hitler again in this game is exactly the same as it would be if he hadn't been Hitler in the last game. 1/10.

I'm not exactly sure who I want to be chancellor. The problem is, those who weren't in governments yet look a bit off. Which may be the reason no one nominated them.

But I have some persons I would exclude and would definitely vote against:
Joe - obvious. I know he's scum so his probability of being Hitler is 1/4. Combine that with the fact that he was playing quite Liberal until revealed, makes him a good Hitler-candidate.

rtcvb - his reluctance to participate in a government, before being called out on that. Plus general absence for large stretches of the game. Might be Hitler trying to hide, who got cold feet in his own government and buried an L.

trent - passed me an L, true, but that's what Hitler would do. And he was atypically silent for significant parts of the game. So I think he has an higher than average Hitler chance. Probably not a regular Fascist though, so he would be OK as president.


Not 100% excluded, but rather not as chancellor:
blotunga - the way he put himself forward as chancellor plus the fallacious argument about having a low probability of being Hitler makes him look bad. I'm always a bit suspicious of someone who vouches for himself. But then again he's right. The smart thing for Hitler would be to let the Fascists do the vouching.

ZFR - just too liberal. I'd rather have him as President than as Chancellor.


Probably not Hitler:
flubb - he's just not Liberal enough to be Hitler. But he has a high probability of being regular Fascist, I would say.


Definitely not Hitler:
me - but everyone would say that. :-) Still, I'm the only player where I know that 100%.

Ah so, a no L card is 36%, but me being Hitler twice in a row is 10%? Are you sure your math isn't what you want it to be?

Anyway, let's move somehow things along, as I'm starting not to care.

Correct.

@Lift Apologies, I forgot Blotunga was in GOV for a minute when I was developing my theory.

Before you played the first Secret Hitler the chance of you being Hitler in both games was 1%. After you were Hitler in that game the chance of you being Hitler in this game is still 10%.

Are you seriously trying to pedal the argument that you have a lesser chance of Hitler in this game than anyone else because you were Hitler last game? Lift has stated maths and probability doesn't work like that. But you can ask our resident Maths expert ZFR if you don't believe us. And really it's quite important we're clear on the probability of events to avoid confusion.

Actually I'm pedaling on the part that the 32% you touted is wrong. Because it's again an unrelated draw for the 3F. So you had once 60%, then again 60%... I don't care what you think about me being Hitler or not.

You should use a hot-air fan or a room-dehumidifier.

Does rtcvb get to investigate someone or just choose the next president? If he gets to investigate someone he should investigate who he plans on nominating.

No, he just gets to nominate the next president.

Providing Pooka definitely did actually draw FFF, you're correct. However because we didn't witness what Pooka and Zeo witnessed, to us it didn't happen as an actual event.

To take this to a whole other level using Quantum Mechanics, let's look at the Observer Effect. Where as if we don't observe the event it didn't happen. Watch this video about how actually observing changes reality of an event:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq69-MI9TA0

Watch the video, it's short but mind blowing if you aren't familar with the Observer Effect. This one is the same theory but has an amusing end

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9tKncAdlHQ

My theory is every possibility that could happen, happens in infinite universes. So anything that could happen, has happened and will happen. When we observe a reality we enter 1 strand of that reality

But as we haven't observed Pooka or Lift or RTCVBs draws they haven't actually happened in the sense of our probable reality.

Where as we know you drew Hitler last game, so that's no longer a question mark in our reality and probability is reset.

All this essentially means is I'm right about the 32% chance providing we're 2 players that don't know the reality. If either of us were Fascist that would change the odds to be certain one way or another

How do you read Joe and Lift?

Good question. Looking at the rules I think it's only choosing the Pres. Can @Zeo also qualify if we can have ZFR as President twice in a row?

And drawing 3F's is why i didn't want to be in government before. At least there's a higher chance now to get an L draw.

3L 6F left in the deck. Let's try some math-fu!

11% of any individual card being an L.

Now the remainder of the deck has exactly 84 states it could be in.

Now there's only 20 states (23.80%) where the deck won't have an L in the next draw (3 cards), meaning a 76.19% chance of a liberal card in the next draw.

Course there's only 6 states for 2 L's (7.14%) and 1 state for 3L's (1.19%) which seem highly unlikely.

(with my draw before with 3L 9F, it was 220 & 84, or a mere 38.18% to include a liberal card... Fun fun...)

Maybe I'm just gone or busy for 12 hours at a time.

With how GoG has been the last few years it isn't exactly the place i spend 8 hours a day on replying anymore. Which in some ways is too bad.

Oh what a surprise who could have predicted that?

And now I have some new questions:


@ Pooka. who do you reckon is F, Lifthrasil or Joe?

@ Blotunga, who do you reckon is F, Lifthrasil or Joe?


hm... I had more, but I'm distracted and can't remember and I'm not quite caught up yet, and have to leave, sorry.
I'll get back to the game tomorrow.

Wait was that right? No, if 1 L was in it, then it would have been 220 & 36, or 16.36%...?

This easily gets confusing when working with these numbers.

And that's exactly the point. You were worried about looking bad. That's a worry that only Hitler needs to have. Liberals know that there's the chance to draw 3F and that that may lead to being excluded from further governments. But that's OK, there are enough other Liberals, and as you know yourself, at least the chances for drawing L will increase. Fascists also have the backup of other Fascists, so it's not the end of the world if they get some suspicion due to drawing 3F. The ONLY one, who has no backup, who has to stay electable and who has to worry about his reputation is Hitler. And that's what you did: you worried about your reputation. So much, in fact, that you would rather not have been in a government rather than risking to draw 3F.

I would have preferred if i was in government i'd have been in before 3L's were in place, when the odds of 3F draws was lower.

Far less about reputation, more about the numbers.