CURRENT PROPOSED GOVERNMENT
President: Apollo "Prime Form" Jones (SirPrimalform)
Chancellor: Zenefredi F. Rapoposculous, the Great (ZFR)

PM me your votes if you haven't already. As you know, there's gotta be a majority "yes" to pass.

Hot! I like mustard. But what's a Pooka?

Either a way that Pikachu says his line, a type of dance, or a series of dots on a material...

Or a mixture of all three? A pikachu dancing with dots on him and saying his ilne... hmm...

Neato.

I'm sorry to see you leave agentcarr16.............................you raging fascist.

I'm leaning toward voting no for the current government and say we stick to the original plan, I think that is our best chance at making sure we get a Liberal policy passed.

Welcome to our game @PookaMustard have you played SecretHitler or Mafia before my friend?

Hmm a joke about Death to mankind and not wanting to be picked as President. Could this be Hitler? Trent will say I'm casting shade again. But a joke about genocide and not wanting to be picked are both strategies for a Hitler player to use I feel. And it could mean nothing, you joke in most games.

If you are Hitler you're a good pick because you either pass Lib Policy or freeze yourself out the game and we win then anyway.

Yea despire my analysis above, I find SPF a hard player to read generally much like Flub. His concern over not wanting to pick a fascist chancellor seems misplaced if he is Liberal.

And no my attempt at your card draw puzzle scenario:

So based on Trent and yourself we have 11 F Cards and 4 L cards

Each turn we have a greater chance of revealing an F card than an L card so we don't draw until we have a higher probability of drawing an L card. So more L cards are in the pack than F cards. We possibly don't draw until the final card where we are certain it's an L card.

That's my uneducated guess anyway after thinking about other possibilities.

Ah, sorry, neither you nor Joe got the answer so far.

I'll keep the joint.

I don't like how this got turned around to actually considering a SPF/ZFR government. Even I was doing it. But what if ZFR is lying and he drew FFL in the first round so now he can throw away one L? Or even if he didn't lied he could frame SPF and then we'd have 8 F and 2 L at most left while standing at 2-1. I'd be more comfortable in a 3-0 than a 2-1, so I'm sticking to the Lift/me proposal. I know i proposed joe initially but he's too far yet. If we draw lucky we could that way go even 4-0 before the reshuffle.

As for the puzzle, after each draw I'd weigh the odds, and if there is a high enough chance (i'd have to calculate high enough, but too lazy), I'd stop or when I know there is only one L left.

I asked for help - I want to know if 4/13 chance is greater than a 9/13 chance of getting a 1/3 chance with the other 4/13 giving us a 1/4 chance, but I don't know how I'd calculate it.

oh yeah I just realised we're no longer dealing with 4L 9F are we? d'oh.

so is 3/10 chance greater than a 7/10 chance of getting a 1/3 chance, and 3/10 chance getting a 1/5 chance?

hmmm... I guess the question I'm asking it "Is it mathematically more probable for L to be the first card in the pack, or the second?" To which the answer is "there is a 3/10 chance that any position holds an L card." So I'd expect it to be the same...

So maybe there is no strategy to adopt? You could wait for a few Fs to go by, but there's no guarantee that will work in your favour...

hmm... tricky tricky.

hmmm.... I don't know what to make of Blotunga suddenly fearing ZFR and naming himself as the only logical candidate for next chancellor.

But I also don't really like the way SirP started off all 'I don't mind if I get skipped, but who's a safe person to nominate in case you all end up voting yes on me?' and ended up as "I'll vote ZFR because I don't trust him."

hmmm...

I might change my vote. But I'm also interested to see what would happen...

this is trickier than the other Mr Z Gold's stupid puzzle.

@joe, you're too far down the line, there need to be at least 2 presidents before you. And you can be my chancellor as long as we haven't passed 3F. That far I trust you.

I think it was Trent who convinced me it would be a better test to pick someone from a previous government, my choices were you and ZFR and it made more sense to test the guy I was highly suspicious of..

Well, despite the "maybe" you get the joint.

There is no strategy to adopt: i.e. no strategy gives you an advantage.
It's counter-intuitive a bit, because you might think for example: Picking the last card gives me 4/13. However I wait for the first card to go. If it's F, I immediately say STOP. My chances are slightly higher now 4/12. If it's L, I go with my default strategy (last card). So there is a chance of my odds being slightly improved and a chance of not changing...
In truth though, if you do get L on first card, your last card strategy worsens. It becomes 3/12. i.e. the advantage you gain when drawing F first gets offset by the disadvantage of drawing L first.

Other strategies like "say STOP" when n F cards are gone or similar or lead to the same situation.

It is logical to nominate yourself for Chancellor regardless of alignment. Blotunga has nominated both himself and Lift in post 175, being the first to nominate Lift. I am somewhat concerned having one player dictating play to others. But in turn I want to be in government myself as I'm the only player that I can be certain is Liberal and that is perhaps all Blotunga is claiming.

There is logic to testing either ZFR though. If ZFR gets confirmed Liberal it also increases the odds of you being Liberal.

I worry though about that course. What if SPF or ZFR is Hitler?
As for proposing myself, yes out of the 10 people in the room I'm the only one I'm 100% sure is liberal. Lift is likely being in a second government and I mostly trust trent too so far. So that leaves 3 probable liberals scattered around and 4 scum. So for the sake of argument if you, zfr and joe are liberal, all others would have to be scum. That would be far too convenient though so that's why I would be in favor of a Lift/me government.