This is good theory because as we know there is a high statistical chance that either Joe or Lift are either Hitler or Liberal. But it also means if we test new players with Joeor Lift as Chancellor that we can make it more likely that Liberal policy is passed. Because if Joe/Lift is Hitler they have to pass Liberal Policy and the same if they're liberal. The only way they don't pass Liberal policy is if Joe/Lift or the President is Fascist. And then we have more information and a blacklisted fascist

So if we played SPF with Lift or Joe that makes plenty of sense

Alternatively I'm willing to be chancellor for SPF as my Presidency is coming up and I know my best chance of nominating a Liberal is to nominate myself.

We know that Lift passed a L. So that makes him for me a more suitable candidate then complete unknowns.

So we are waiting on SirP to nominate a chancellor and all the votes to be tallied, then we have to wait on whoever replaces Agent to join and get caught up so they can nominate a chancellor and we can wait on those votes to be tallied.

Anyone bring a deck of cards? We might be awhile

I can make another probability problem if anyone's interested.

A game of cards inside a game of Secret Hitler.............






We need to go deeper.

Yea go on

That's what she said!

Guys if everyone could PM Mafia players you've played with that would be helpful for us to find a Sub. I've announced we needed one in the Forum Mafia Admin thread.

@Zeo I hope I'm not overstepping any bounds here :)

Sorry to hear that Agent and hopefully you haven't been put off Forum Mafia. I've PM'ed one past player, Ixam, to see if he'd like to sub as I believe he was interested before. If it turns out you have more availability to play let us know though.

This is slightly counter-intuitive:

zeo shuffles the remaining cards and starts dealing them out one by one, face-up (i.e. we can see whether it's L or F). At any time we can say STOP, at which point the next card that's not yet dealt is passed as a policy. If zeo deals all the cards without us saying STOP, the last card is automatically passed as policy.

What's the best strategy we can adapt (as to when to say STOP) to increase our chances of passing an L policy?

If SirPrimalform's going to pick someone I think ZFR's a good choice. If it goes wrong we'll have two people going "see, I told you not to trust him!" which is unfortunate, but that's basically what would happen anytime an F comes up, isn't it?

FFFFFFFFFLLLL

If we shout stop immediately, there's a 4/13 chance we'll hit L. Not insignificant.

But if we let one card go there's two outcomes -
outcome one (9/13 chance) - 1/3 chance the next card is an L

OR

outcome two (4/13 chance) - 1/4 chance the next card is an L


So each at each card we're going to double our outcomes, meaning there are, I think, 2048 individual outcomes. No. that's not right because after 4 cards have been passed, one branch ends with a big printed FAILURE. (the possibility of LLLL having being turned over,) then several of the next set of branches (LFLLL for example.)

This is interesting to think about but I can't see a clear way into it. I think my first question is - is 4/13 chance greater than a 9/13 chance of getting a 1/3 chance but a failure leaves us with a 1/4 chance. I don't know how I'd work that out - how would you do that ZFR?

Does letting all the card play give you the same chance as saying stop immediately? Immediately I think yes, because there's a 4/13 chance that the bottom card is L, just as there's a 4/13 chance the top card in the pack is L.

I think the best strategy is to first sneak a look at the pack - if we can see what the bottom card is we'll have a lot more information to work with :)

Now who's in favour of ignoring SirP's government? I could vote aye or nay.

I'll probably vote no... stick with the plan. Sir P is still wigging me out a bit, though ZFR seems fairly trustworthy... but it could be an act.

I'm tempted though... I'd like people to explain what their thinking is and how they're going to vote.

So you have nothing against if we change plans and you become chancellor? That's good I guess, since it lowers your chances of being Hitler.
Ok, let's try to think one more step ahead, there are 2 possible main scenarios:
- ideally you guys pass a L policy, then I'm fairly confident of both of you
- you guys pass a F
- that makes SPF about 70% scum
- we could be still unsure about you, but it would probably make it harder for you to get into a government in the future.

Our next move should be a Lift president and someone we trust as chancellor (so one of trent or joe) if we go 3-0.
The question is what do we do if we go 2-1? Do we dare a 2-2 risk? If I think about it, I have nothing against being Lift's chancellor, since that way I could prove myself.
Thoughts?

I like this government because I think the results give us good information. Any fascist is almost forced to discard the L Card at this stage because being 3-0 down is close to losing for the fascists.

We get to test ZFR again and he becomes pretty much confirmed if he passes and SPF would be semi-confirmed too. If an F policy is passed we also have more info, ie who not to put in power.

So based on Trent and yourself we have 11 F Cards and 4 L cards

Each turn we have a greater chance of revealing an F card than an L card so we don't draw until we have a higher probability of drawing an L card. So more L cards are in the pack than F cards. We possibly don't draw until the final card where we are certain it's an L card.

That's my uneducated guess anyway after thinking about other possibilities.