Could you check the quicktopic link I sent you? GOG messages is playin me for a chump so I sent my vote that way. (It's yes)

I could approve of ZFR as chancellor - he picked me so I can be confident his random choice was genuine, he sent me the two policies he promised to so no funny business there.

I find it much easier to trust me than him, but I could risk trusting him if he's the preferred of the majority. But we're getting ahead of ourselves aren't we? Let's see what this government can achieve.

So I make it 80% chance Hitler will have been in government by now but someone can check my maths.

I wanted to reply last night but it didn't post. Now the probability of a Fascist being in the first 2 governments and thus nominate Hitler into power is 3/10+3/10= 6/10 or 60% chance. There is also a 1/10+1/10 chance that Hitler has been president so a 20% chance.

So we have an 60%+20%=80% chance that Hitler has been in government at this stage. Providing the government passes ofcourse.

For those reasons it would of been a good pick to play me alongside Trent. Trent has scum read me and I've suspected him. We both are too aggressive to be Hitler. Eliminating or giving credence to Trent makes good sense from my perspective.

Why Lift Blotunga? Blotunga, Joe and Trent all consider it a good idea to give Lift, a poster who hasn't posted much until yesterday as the player to be nominated. Lift is usually a player usually posts quite frequently with plenty of analysis regardless of alignment.

I suppose he has now analysed Flub in a way I hadn't really contemplated, which is useful.

Given it would be Fascist tactic for 3 fascist players to get behind a Hitler nomination you can understand the reasoning of me asking why are you 3 posters getting behind this particular nomination?

@Lift why not post much until the day before you were nominated?

If this is the Scum team that would mean my ZFR theory was ofcourse off.

This is actually quite a positive though. You have asked opinions of the group and suggested multiple names. Eventually you went with Blotunga's suggestion instead of your own. So if you are Scum you've played this really well in letting a Scumbuddy bring Hitler to the party instead of doing it obviously yourself. I tend to think too well and edge towards you being Liberal or Hitler. Either that or you're Scum and not rushing Hitler to the party just yet. But imo that is risky play, he may never get his invite. If I was Hitler I'd definitely nominate him at the first opportunity. I don't think you're Hitler either because you probably wouldn't of Scumhunted me if you were.

Just to be correct, I do think LLF is actually quite likely. It doesn't mean it happened but it's not unlikely.

Providing ZFR told the truth. If he is Scum he'd probably lie about either an LLL draw or possibly an LLF draw

Hmmm 'you chose 10th' did you, unfortunate phrasing or a Fraudian slip ZFR?

That was another negative of your random vote though. We have no test of upcoming presidents.

BOOKWYRM! Come dust the bagel crumbs off this hat! They're cramping my style!

Because there wasn't much to analyze yet. The first round is mostly random. After that you can make connections. I've written what I noticed and so far I haven't gotten into a fight with anyone yet. (Which is where I usually become verbose)

But I do have a request for clarification:

What do you mean with this sentence? If you were Hitler, you'd nominate whom? It's not clear who that 'him' refers to.

Because it is a 4-way test. Except you SirPrimalForm and agentcarr16 voted with NO. If Lift enacts a L, I think we can safely consider him for the next presidency. If the trent/lift duo enact a F however, then we can choose either a SirPrimalForm or an agentcarr16 government.

Sorry I muddled that. I meant if I was a Fascist President I'd want Hitler in power ASAP in order for him to gain trust and that I would nominate him quickly. If Trent is Fascist he will want to get Hitler nominated and the same if ZFR is fascist. Ofcourse if ZFR or Trent is Hitler they would want to pick a Liberal in order to gain Liberal Cred. But they'd have to string out the nomination to try and read who's Liberal and who isn't. This would make Trent a more likely Hitler than ZFR due to how they handled their Presidencies.

So that's kind of the basis for my Scumhunting of ZFR's Presidency and kind of my early suspicions for Prospective Hitler candidates. Because Trent has stood back and let someone else choose his candidate he looks less likely to be Fascist than ZFR. But if any of Blotunga, Trent or Joe appear to be Fascist later, the risk of you being Hitler increases.

Ofcourse maybe there is logic for Fascists to bring a Liberal in round 1 and not be 'too obvious' and attempt to smear that Liberal later. I just wouldn't personally take that play.

I admit that I made a mistake in the first round, we should've voted down the ZFR government because the selected chancellor wasn't close in line to presidency. I have thought about this too late, when it was trent's turn for presidency. As for the odds, the odds for LLF and FFF are exactly the same in round1, namely 24.26%.

Here we have all the odds of possible draws:
https://i.imgur.com/q5vrMFc_d.jpg?maxwidth=1920&fidelity=high

Hmm, people seem upset that I voted no. In my defence, I was under the impression that the vote was about ice cream. Apollo Jones hates ice cream as it is high in fat and doesn't contain enough protein.

So the same vote you say you should of made (below) is reason to exclude other voters from the voting pool? Albeit your reason is largely different to my own.

Did you decide this after nominating Lift?

TBH I'm not overly impressed with Agent and SPF's explanations for their vote either. SPF seems to not have posted in some time.

@Joe give SPF a nudge

No problem *hops into Super Sapphire Time Machine*

#metoo

That was thrilling, you should use it more often.

I would never vote for you either.

I understood your arguments, however I did not SPF's and agent's arguments. Ofc they both can be liberals as most of the time liberals like to lurk around. I never said that my way is the best, but I offered a credible way to progress. If by some chance your ZFR - fascist, joe - Hitler theory is true we still can get 3-0 in the lead if the trent/lift combo is liberal. Otherwise a new plan is needed, but it would exclude at least 1 probable fascist.