Are you not exaggerating somewhat? Why does it need genius?


----


So it's 3:00 in the morning, and something else occurred to me so I got out of bed to log in to gog and write this.

^ It's a good point that Lifthrasil makes here: if blotunga was liberal, then if the fascists kill a second liberal then the game is unwinnable.

So my question is

@ EVERYBODY

Why does Lifthrasil trust Trentonlf with the kill that, if he's fascist, could lose the game?

Why do you all trust Trentonlf with that kill?


Lifthrasil made the argument, so it should have occurred to him that Fascist Trentonlf is a massive scary danger.


Hm... thinking about it, unwinnable is wrong, it just means that the fascists can block any liberal-liberal governments, which means if the liberals don't vote wrong then it'll go to a card flip where there's a 4-in-5 chance of
the top card being fascist.


Well. Why are you trusting Trentonlf with those odds?

OR, more appropriately, why have you been up until now? (An answer of "because you wouldn't be pointing it out if Trentonlf actually were Fascist" misses the point.)

Re trent. Couple of posts ago I explained why he cant be fascist or hitler.

In short: he's unlikely be Hitler because when you selected him, not a single person took the bait and voted yes. Not even trent himself nor you, both of whom could vote YES without arising suspicions.
Agree with me?

Unlikely to be fascist because he picked liberal Lift to confirm when he was president. This hinges on Lift being liberal, which you might not agree with.
However, for me it's natural that Lift trusts someone who confirmed him.

Either way, someone has to do the second execution and trent I trust more than SPF and infinitely more than Pooka.

Seeing as i drew FFF (which ZFR agrees with, since he saw all 3 L's later) how likely i am to be Fascist based on actions is nil.

Regardless, we'll have to see what happens.

Wait a minute Lift didn't have more Liberal Cred than Joe, ZFR, Trent or SPF at this stage. So Pooka could have picked Joe or Trent instead of Lift and was just as likely to be elected. Assuming one of them is Liberal that would make a much better choice than a fascist Lift if Pooka is planning to hide a Liberal card, correct?

Conclusion, Pooka and Lift aren't the same

And another point to add to the 'Is Joe Fascist list?' Or perhaps genuinely tunneling by a Liberal.

How was RTCB electable for ZFR when a fair few of us had him pegged as a possible Hitler/Fascist when he drew FFF? He wasn't at that stage. Neither was SPF with his lurkyness. So you're either not being logical here or you're actually being scummy. Because it seems like you're aiming to steer the execution towards a couple of easy targets

Add this to your 'Is Joe F list'

Ummm Joe why are you making the assumption that Pooka and Blotunga aren't on the same team? Why are you making the assumption Joe isn't on Pooka's team? I actually think it's likely Pooka is on Joe's team and is on Blotunga's team. I also don't find it at all likely that Pooka is on Lift's team.

Right so if Trent is Fascist he almost certainly kills a Liberal and ZFR if fascist would do the same. I read both as Liberal and I don't believe they are a scum team. And what are the alternatives? Pooka is probably Fascist and probably the same team as you. And SPF is lurky and I get the feeling fascist on your team because you've vouched for him a few times without any reason. IE when you stated SPF wouldn't play this way if he was Lib/Hitler and SPF is electable.

But Joe you're now super concerned we might kill a Liberal. When I asked you who you'd kill you said you'd target a prospective Hitler, who would be ofcourse more likely to be Liberal. You've either seen the error of your thinking or this is simply more fascist changing of the goal posts.

Also the time to ask whether we should trust Trent with the power of execution should have come before he was elected and not after.

Nope. If we think the execution's too risky we can skip three governments to draw an F without executing anyone, then elect someone out of Lifthrasil, Supplementscene, RTCVB.

It's an option, and it's foolish not to have considered it.


Based on what cards went on the table, yes nil is right. Based on the actions of Lifthrasil, no, not nil.

But you're right, I've been less certain about you than I have been.

Regardless, I'd like you to try and get more engaged with solving the game: There's so much information in the archives, and so many things which don't make sense, you could pick a question and go and read back through the game and see if you can find an answer?

Maybe start with: If Joe and Pooka are both Fascist, who are their allies?

Take more responsibility for the outcome of the game. I know you find this version of the game boring compared to the live version, but here's where it becomes much more interesting: We can't judge whether people are lying based on their behaviour, but we have everything they've said and done in the game documented.

Have fun!


Did you read back over the events that led up to Pooka making his choice? It wasn't just the choices that had been made, but what people were saying at the time. Blotunga, ZFR and Joe all were arguing to skip Pooka and elect Lifthrasil's government. As far as I can tell it was this that made Pooka believe Lifthrasil was generally-most-trusted, and that's why Pooka nominated.



I reckon RTCVB was electable because the argument could have gone "Joe's been insisting he's Fascit for ages, therefore he's liberal." But maybe you're right.

I will add this to the list. Please do continue to pick and scruitinise.

He's not been elected. The votes can still be changed. Not that there's much hope of it.



loving the brainwork supplementscene! Please keep it up. Everybody, you'd do well to follow in supplementscene's example.

Question! Probe! Reason! Research! Learn!

Don't let me, ZFR and Lifthrasil tell you what to think. Work it out for yourself. Pick something that doesn't make sense and solve it!



TABLE MARK III
Query, scrutinise, add to it.

Is Joe L?

- passed L policy as chancellor in 1st government.

- has given people an L feeling for much of the game.

- changes his mind. Uncertain.

- trying to solve the game. Has asked people to help think things through and apply reason.

- No allies. Presidency voted down by all other players. Negligible support in debate.

- Pooka is claimed to be F. Little to suggest Joe & Pooka team.

- ZFR, Lifthrasil, RTCVB are claimed to be F. Little to suggest ZFR, Lifthrasil, RTCVB & Joe team.

Is Lifthrasil L?

- passed two L policies. The second L policy under Trentonlf, and the 4th L policy under ZFR.

- made chancellor by Pooka in a government with high chance of getting FFF. ZFR claims Pooka is F.

Is Lifthrasil F?

- passed FF on his presidency (possibly had no choice)

- tended to be placed on the F side of Joe/Lifthrasil before ZFthrasil government.

- thinks the game can be easily won: Has No doubt.

- hasn't attempted to work out who Joe's teammates are.

- has support from others. Member of 4 governments, has ZFR's trust among others.

- when questioned whether he had suspicion about ZFR, claimed "Well, a bit, of course, since I don't know his allegiance for sure." (post 1204) - doesn't sit right with me when a drunken four-year-old could have seen that Joe and ZFR are not on a scumteam. Did go on to say "But still I think that ZFR is liberal and that he indeed has a good enough reason. I just would like to know which that is. Hence my question." but the initial statement is still interesting. If he had said "no, thinking about it, I don't really have suspicions; there's no way ZFR can be F, but it's a strange thing to do" or "it seems impossible but I'm wondering if I'm being set-up" I would understand. As it is the opening statement is the sort of thing a liberal should say on paper.

Is Joe F?

- proclaimed F by lifthrasil after investigation.

- picked as ZFR's chancellor in first government without discussion.

- didn't support the ZFthrasil government which passed the 4th L

- ZFR claims his irrational and emotionally charged appeal against ZFthrasil government only makes sense as F.

- Shows support for flubbucket and blotunga.

- went against blotunga's plan to support Pooka's presidency: Pooka is now claimed to be F by ZFR.

- made it look like lifthrasil had claimed to know blotunga was L, when lifthrasil had actually said "if blotunga was L then..."

- said that ZFR would have found it possible to elect rtcvb in the 8th government. supplementscene claims this is an attempt to steer the execution towards himself and flubbucket.

Oh wow. Now, after having been caught at scum tactics, you try to sway opinions by employing walls of text? If all else fails, throw quantity at the Liberals and make it appear as if you were genuinely trying to 'solve' the game, right?

And while at it, you try to present flubb as possible Hitler, on the grounds that he is unelectable. Are you trying to deflect the shot to him? Is he Liberal after all and you want to save yourself or your scum-buddy Pooka? And then you try the same with Scene, where the 'unelectable' isn't even true. Both ZFR and trent have considered him as a good choice. So you're drawing conclusions based on a false assumption again. But let's say you are right and the Fascists try to go for the 6F route of winning, because Hitler is unelectable by now. You know who is absolutely unelectable? You, Joe!

Your back and forth about ZFR is also interesting. First you try your darndest to promote the 'ZFR and Lifthrasil are a scum team' theory. And after you realized that no one is buying that, you chance direction and now try to convince ZFR again. You're just desperately trying everything to see if anything might work, right?

That makes me wonder: why? Yes, of course, you want to avoid a loss. But why so much effort now? Why try to deflect the shot and when that doesn't work, suggest to go to the 'three failed governments' route instead. I only have two possible answers.
- Either one of the two suggested targets would be instant loss for the Fascists. We know that isn't Pooka. So that would make Joe Hitler, unlikely as that seems.
- Or we did get a Fascist with blotunga after all and Joe sees his team-size dwindling. If we did get a Fascist with blotunga and trent now shoots another Fascist, the Fascist team size is down to 2. Which makes L-L governments much more likely. Which, in turn, would ensure a Liberal win, even if we draw bad cards in the government after the currently proposed one.

So in conclusion:
Yes to both.

@all: if you are confused by these walls of text, ask yourself two things: Joe is an experienced Mafia-player. Would he really resort to scum-tactics if he were Liberal? And do you really believe that he 'missed' that wording, after even quoting the post while omitting crucial points? He intentionally changed the meaning of what he was quoting and when caught at it he went 'oops, my bad! It was a mistake. Honestly!'. ...

Oh and to his other point why Pooka didn't taint me when he had a chance, ZFR already supplied the answer. Either Pooka didn't have the chance due to the cards he draw, or he didn't dare to start the game as the new one with a conflict.

Unfortunately it's a weekend. Which means I'll be mostly on the road again, mostly without internet. So see you all when I'm back.

Well, this is getting overwhelming. Though I do believe that if ZFR is fascist and possibly Hitler, and with his support of Lift (and vice versa), that maybe I should reconsider who I trust. And whether he is indeed fascist or actually liberal, I should be working out what is really going on along with Joe. After all, we're both damned anyway.

About why I selected Lift, Joe did sum it up nicely: I wanted a chancellor, and everyone was saying Lift was a good idea. Add to that the demand to speed it up, and he was selected as chancellor. I never thought of the whole "how many Ls are left in the deck?" thing. Though, given the knowledge that a 3F was oncoming anyway, and his earlier passing of L policies, it makes me wonder if ZFR "cleared" Lift's reputation, or is it more or less that ZFR "confirmed" he was a liberal? Although I don't see a guarantee that there wasn't a WIFOM situation with Lift's last L policy (thanks for the explanation, Joe!).

Regardless, if ZFR is fascist (or possibly even Hitler), I don't know who the rest of his teammates are. There's an argument to be made about SPF, flub and rtcvb, but there's little to go off them besides the occasional "rtcvb seems the most Hitler-like" which for some reason, he doesn't address.

I haven't played many Secret Hitler games like this, but darn, I just can't help but feel that something is off about this game.

Or I have a lot of different information to consider and don't have the benefit of knowing the answers already?

Why do I have to be desperate to find something that works? Surely I can find something that can sort-of-fit, and trust my teammates to support me? Why don't I just do that?


I never asked that.

Is this what they call 'scum tactics'?

No, it's just lifthrasil making a mistake. What would he ever achieve by trying to pretend I'd said something I hadn't? It is easily refutable and only threatens his credibilty once the misrepresentation is noticed. Which is likely to happen immediately.

funny that. Two people damned. I

t's lucky that it's two different people who damned us, or people might start to get suspicious.

Well, they're two different people, but they go along with each other very well. Just something to keep in mind.

With ~1430 posts, i don't think i'd have the patience or willpower to sift through it.

But with the next draw most certainly being FFF, it doesn't matter who's president, only who's chancellor. Could skip up to twice, but only a confirmed not hitler should be selected/elected. (though on the 3rd random policy won't mean much, F & reshuffle). So you could in theory do 5 skips before mandatory government or 75% Fascists win by RNG.

I don't see myself getting president again, so if need be i could be chancellor to free up ZFR to be selected later. That would be 2 F's i passed probably, but knowing neither one i would have had a choice in the matter.

And I'd just like to add that they're not mutually exclusive.

Haha, love the subtle LAMIST.