I'll give you the summaries once we've sorted through the shite.


That's okay. There's time to think it over.


We have until Trent makes his decision on who to eliminate.


But, and I feel a little bad for saying this, but if Lifthrasil is F, then you were the one who got him to this position. I'll admit I made some mistakes too, but if you put him to the position of most-trusted-player, then you owe it to your team to make a thoroughly-considered decision. "I'm just sticking to the plan because that's easier," is not acceptable.

Do you wish you'd executed me now ;)

any tips for clearing the game out of my head for the evening? I've been obsessing over this pretty continually since I mistook Lifthrasil's meaning and pulled false hope out of thin air.

I'm secure.

Everyone who thinks I'm fascist is not smart.

No, no. Not "easier". More probable.

You have actually managed to show me a scenario, for once not based on misrepresenting words, in which Lift is scum. But just because such a scenario is possible doesn't mean it's probable.

I deserve that.

---

Are you leaving this all down to 'probably fascist pooka wouldn't nominate fascist lifthrasil.'?

Because that was your reason for not bothering to think about it.

Now that that reason's gone, I insist you consider the other ways in which lifthrasil might be fascist or liberal, and the ways Joe might be fascist or liberal.


But I take back what I said about you owing it to your team to put the effort in. That's not fair. If they had bothered to think about it or question you you might have had doubt introduced ages ago. You've been putting in the most effort for a long time.


I've been thinking about what we'll need to do to win. I'm thinking of giving up.

Believe me I've done this. A lot. I like to play the devil's advocate.

But while ''fascist pooka wouldn't nominate fascist lifthrasil.' was my "main" argument, it wasn't the only one.
Your reaction (granted that you explained it, but it still seems off to me.), the fact that he passed a 4th L without knowing that I'd discarded an L already and without knowing that I'd select Pooka as my chancellor. You casually mentioning that with Pooka being new it would be ungentlemanly to vote NO for him. All these factor in...

And the main reason is far from "gone". You suggested an alternative possibility; but it's just that: a small possibility. One which would require Pooka to show good foresight without chatting with his fellow fascists to coordinate.

Reality (assuming ZFR's liberal, if he's not there's no hope anyway):

Lifthrasil & Pooka are a Fascist team.

Who isn't on their team?

Joe
ZFR
Flubbucket
Blotunga (deceased)

Who could be?

RTCVB (Joe's top choice)
supplementscene
trentonlf
sirprimalform

ASSUMING rtcvb is Fascist:

If supplementscene is Fascist:
-Continue with Trent/Lifthrasil government.
-Trent kills Pooka (or Lifthrasil whichever of suppllementscene or rtcvb is hitler)
-SirP chancellorates ZFR.
gets an L. WIN!
or gets FFF - veto. skip to flubbucket, flubbucket chancellorates Joe. get an L. WIN!

^ unlikely to happen.

If trentonlf is Fascist.:
-Skip Trent to SirPrimalform.
-SirPrimalform chancellorates Lifthrasil.
-SirPrimalform kills Pooka (or Lifthrasil, or whichever of Trentonlf or rtcvb is hitler)
-Skip to supplementscene.
-supplementscene chancellorates ZFR.
gets an L win!
or gets FFF - veto. skip to flubbucket, flubbucket chancellorates Joe. get an L. WIN!

^less likely to happen.

If Sir Primalform is Fascist.
-Continue with Trent/Lifthrasil government.
-Trent kills Pooka (or Lifthrasil whichever of SirPrimalform or rtcvb is hitler)
-Skip to supplementscene.
-supplementscene chancellorates ZFR.
gets an L win!
or gets FFF - veto. skip to flubbucket, flubbucket chancellorates Joe. get an L. WIN!

^ Unlikelier to happen than the first one, but more likely then the second.

IF RTCVB isn't Fascist

-We skip three governments.
top card is an L. WIN!
or top card is F
-skip to rtcvb. rtcvb chancellorates ZFR.
gets an L win!
or gets FFF - veto. skip to flubbucket, flubbucket chancellorates Joe. get an L. WIN!

^Super unlikely to happen.


So I can't solve this on my own, and I doubt anybody's going to resist the temptation of Lifthrasil's Easy Win.

Tonight I give up. If anybody cares to take over and do a bit of Trying-To-Win-Secret-Hitler for a bit I will ASSIST and SUPPORT and do what I can to HELP.

You're saying Pooka's too intelligent to make a mistake in his first game of secret hitler, but not so intelligent that he can see the benefit of having two fascist governments to cover the two likely-FFF-thus-investigation-granting governments.

I'm saying Pooka is either EXACTLY SO INTELLIGENT, or EXACTLY THAT STUPID.

Probalitywise, what I'm arguing has 2 chances, to your 1. Mine is more probable. QED.



Anyway, shall we give up?

My chance is chancier than your chance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution#Standard_normal_distribution

Wait, I mean yes.

Chancey usually taken to mean "risky".

You should go with my chance. It's safer.

I meant chancy to mean "higher probability"

Oh. That's messed up.

Which of my two chances is your chance chancier than?

Both.

There is a bigger chance that Pooka, whose this is the first game of Secret Hitler, is just an average solid player, who's intelligent enough not to select fascist!Lift as his buddy than that he's either stupid enough to do it or a forward thinking genius who'd do it for the reasons you outlined.