Exactly, basically known states reducing it to binary (since there's only 2 types) seemed the best method. If it were a poker deck or something this totally wouldn't be applicable at all... Unless it was to figure out say the odds of drawing cards of the same suit, or for 3 or 4 of a kind were.

Curiously this same method once correctly done, can be used to figure out Keno odds. I didn't understand the tutorial of it before, but i do now.

The Great Zenefredi paces angrily around the room. Everybody backs away from him whenever he comes near, and he twirls his wand across his fingers ominously. Eventually, his gaze snaps to Captain Sapphire.
"You!" he bellows.
"Me?" asks the Captain.
"YOU!" screams Zenefredi.
"ME?!" squeals the Captain.
"ALAKAZAM!" booms Zenefredi, his voice filling the room as he waves his wand. A bright starburst shoots out from the tip of the wand and flies directly for the Captain!
Thinking quickly to episode #137, "Captain Sapphire Meets the Power People" and how he defeated the Evil Manta Ray of Doom, the Captain speaks but three words while striking an exaggerated pose.
"SUPER SAPPHIRE SHIELD!"
A great glowing blue energy force field forms in front of him, reflecting Zenefredi's own blast right back at him.
"Oh, bugger," mutters Zenefredi a mere moment before the Mighty Blotunga gives his mighty jungle yell, swoops in on a vine, and knocks him away. The blast hits the shirtless jungle hero, and in a flash of light and a puff of smoke, Blotunga disappears.
"Whoa," says Trent.
"WOW," says the Pooka.
"My!" says Apollo.
"Where did the vine come from?" asks RT-CB.
"Dang," says Rasil.
"Goodness!" says Scene.
"Cool trick," says Flub, and begins applauding. Confused and not sure how to react, the rest of the room follows suit as Zenefredi takes an awkward bow and the Captain pouts angrily.

Blotunga has been eliminated.
Press AAAAEEEAAAEEEAAAA to pay respects.
The current president is trentolf, who must pick a chancellor. The chancellor cannot be anyone who was part of the previous government (ZFR and PookaMustard).

Well, after the reaction of our two fascists to me choosing blotunga, I kind of expected it. But still hoped.

There is still a chance I eliminated vanilla fascist.

Surprise: a liberal has indeed been shot. There is still a game after all!

5 liberals vs 4 fasctsts. This imbalance means to gain a fascist majority, one liberal has to vote. If that becomes certain, the four fascists will vote yes. I'm voting no to any government with trent obviously, and would rather skip elections and pass the top policy to not get a free shot (which sounds better than my suggestion of SPF shooting, but that is still an option for us). The last shoot could either end us like so:

4 liberals vs 4 fascists
or
5 liberals vs. 3 fascists

While going for the latter scales things in our favor, the likelihood of ending up with 4 liberals is high. Be very careful at this point of whom you trust.

Unless you're blatantly lying... which i'm inclined to believe.

Though more than likely the next two governments will determine the game, which might purely come down to RNG.

That's up to you, but I stand behind my assertions that blotunga is liberal.

One of them will probably have Chancellor Lift, but he's going to be put in power once and never again in the game. Who do you think is best for chancellorship the next two turns?

Probably default back to my original plan: So Lift Trent Primal.

With ZFR being term bound I prefer Lift or myself. I know I'm Liberal and not Hitler and I know Lift isn't Hitler. Anyone else could be Hitler. Lift has also passed 2 Liberal policies and given Pooka is almost certainly Fascist it raises the odds that Lift did indeed draw FFF

Ideally I'd prefer you picked myself to guarantee we win.

We don't get any info whether Blotunga was Liberal or Fascist and right now no one trusts you.

we only have your word for it and it's still questionable if your read can be trusted. The fact that the game goes on only tells us that blotunga wasn't Hitler.

Time to nominate your chancellor. Contrary to Scene I would prefer if you pick me. However, considering that the actual alignment is irrelevant in this round, as long as we avoid Hitler, I would also agree to you+Scene followed by SPF+me (or me+ZFR) next.

IT'S RTCVB!!!!

I'm allowed to be smug about knowing who and who isn't H: I wasn't told explicitly at the beginning of the game.




So once you've used the final execution power to kill either probably-not-H or certainly-not-H, how do you plan on keeping Fs out of the next two governments? Because an F in the first government is lose, and an F in the second is lose unless the president pulls-a-zfr (LLF).



Noooooo! Please don't shoot one of the two CERTAINLY-NOT-H players!

If you get H then we win.
If you don't then you're handing the game over to lifthrasil.

Can you trust lifthrasil not to pick an F chancellor? Can you trust the government after that to be F-free? Can you trust lifthrasil to not be F himself?



HOORAY!!!



It's not a simple matter of avoiding H, it's avoiding all the other Fs.

Well. I suppose by-your-erroneous-logic H is the only F left after you discount pooka, joe and blotunga. Are you certain you can avoid Him?

If so, why?




Trent, will you please kill H? I've been mocked for clutching at straws a few times over the course of the game. These are the only straws I have left to clutch.

Oh, are we re-shuffling after the next government? That's not so scary...


start - 17 cards.

5 governments - 12 cards.

rtcvb - 9 cards

zfr (1) - 6 cards

zfr (2) - 3 cards

this government - reshuffle.


yup. forgot ZFR had been president twice.


STILL


if you let lift in the next government then we lose.

If you shoot H then we win.

Please don't waste the chance of shooting H.

On top of the other stuff, my question wasn't "why do you think the game from now is easy?" but, "why do you think the game [as a whole] is easy?"

As in, why do you think you've been allowed to lead your team to victory from the beginning of the game, with only the pitiful resistance from Joe?

Sorry no-one's addressed this. We're all rude bastards.

Wario In First. Oh Mama!

refers to the double-bluff tactic. So if someone does something that it's unlikely for someone of their alignment to do, that might be taken as proof that that person is not of that alignment. BUT, you need to take into consideration that they might have done the thing PRECISELY FOR THAT REASON.

So: Lifthrasil can't be F, because he passed the 4th L policy, so we cannot drink the Wario In First. Oh Mama!
BUT OF COURSE, Lifthrasil KNEW we'd all think that if he's not F if he passed the fourth L policy, so we cannot drink the Wario In First, Oh Yellowbelly!

So: ZFR can't be H, because if he was H he wouldn't lie about passing an L policy, so we cannot drink the Wario In First. Oh Mama!
BUT OF COURSE, ZFR would KNOW we'd all think he's not H if he lied about passing an L policy, so we cannot drink the Wario In First. Oh Yellowbelly!



(Some people have mistakenly attributed the letters WIFOM to "Wine In Front Of Me", in a reference to the book & film The Princess Bride, but we know the truth.)


---

Are blotunga & Joe both F?

^ probably not.

Scene. Please do the maths. Why would it be suspicious if no Liberal policy is passed this round? There are most likely none left in the pile. According to ZFR he drew the last L and handed it to Pooka, who buried it. And even if you believe Pooka that he got FF, then it is very likely that ZFR buried the last L. In any case after everything we know there are exactly 0 Liberal policies left in the pile. So ... how likely do you think it is that the next government draws an L policy if there are none left in the pile?

This means, unless ZFR drew FFF in the last round and lied about passing LF to Pooka, the next President will draw FFF, because it's all that is left in the pile. Therefore I said that the alignment is basically irrelevant. Because I believe ZFR that he drew the last L. Which is also why I would be OK with you as Chancellor. You might be Fascist, but I don't believe that you're Hitler. Still, I would prefer to be Chancellor myself because I'm proven non-Hitler.

By the way, after the next government the cards will be re-shuffled. And then there will be two L cards in the pile again. So while this current government isn't that crucial, the next one surely is. It has to be Liberal-Liberal. That's why I suggested to follow trent+X up with me+ZFR. ZFR is still the strongest Liberal player we have. All that 'But ZFR might be Hitler' reasoning from Pooka looks a bit contrieved. But then again he had to come up with something after being outed as probable Fascist.

Thanks. Unfortunately this statement is again fraught with a lot of 'Wario In First, Oh Mama!'.


Why am I not surprised to see Joe defending Pooka?


@trent: I am OK with you shooting Pooka instead of Joe. While I know 100% that Joe is Fascist, you don't. And should blotunga have been Liberal, we can't afford another accidental Liberal death. Because then the Fascists could block every Liberal-Liberal government, forcing a random policy in the last round. Which would mean we would probably lose.