Liberal according to Greek - Post 942

Ah, thanks

My thought exactly. If it's gonna vote down then I just pick random person

I missed that upon first read through. No, there wouldn't be any other presidents in between. The next policy either ends the game or gives the president the power to freely choose the next president.

@kusu: yes, I guess it makes sense if you just nominate anyone.

I have a hunch that Kusu as a low posting lurker probably is Liberal and that if ZFR is fascist may have thought he could discredit early. We don't have any data on Kusu because of that. So Kusu probably is too risky but he's been less suspicious than many others. So we probably do goto Lift

We need to decide how many presidents we need and who they should be. If this policy goes Fascist, Lift picks a president, which could be Greek if we trust him, which right now I'm 50-50 on. There's a 45% chance that Greek discarded a Liberal card on the last play and we only have 1 Liberal card left in the pack (is that right??). That would mean if another Liberal card is discarded that the Fascists have won and the Liberals have lost.

The fact that RWarehall is implicating Greek makes me wonder if he is double bluffing and distancing or is he trying to discredit a Liberal.

Before we make any decision we have to ask:

Do we trust Greek in government again?

Who should be Lift's Chancellor?

Yeah, I forgot that one.
But I have to say if that is the case I would vote down a Brasas greek government with greek as chancellor as chances are that would be game over.

@scene I don't believe the fascists can win this shuffle (unless Hitler becomes chancellor), there are four possible policies that round before a reshuffle. I think the fascists need 6 so even if every policy is fascist they'd still need one more after the reshuffle.
Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Look, Scene, you said a few times that there is a 45% chance that I am fascist. You only took into account the last draw. If you take into account the whole game since the beginning, I say the chance I am fascist is about 0.001%

I am sure all liberals noticed that this combined attack on me started after the investigation. It started with Zfr posting right after the result but replying to a post I had made hours earlier. Why didn't he reply before? Was this a coincidence? Maybe he really didn't know the result.

And yes the "HA" post was a trap. RW will twist things again and say I lied and deceived but it's not this way. Setting traps as a liberal is perfectly acceptable and even brasas didn't complain for the trap I set for the 4th L in case he was fascist. What was the liberal play to my trap? There were 2. One was to say nothing about it. Another was to say it was funny or that I scared them because when they saw the HA they thought I would continue with "Lift is fascist". Zfr's reply was to accuse me. Well, he took the bait. I don't trust him either and he's my number one target for assassination if we reach that point.

And the rest, tell us how you read the game at this point. Who have you cleared as liberal?

A mistake liberals did until now was to announce their votes too openly before casting them. That way it was easy for fascists to follow us. Maybe for one of the following nominations we could say nothing and just cast the votes and see what happens. Fascists got lucky this round or bribed Zeo to go to sleep and forget to shuffle the deck. Now, there 2L and 7F left and the next government isn't clear in the same way that the me-Lift government was sure that was the play. Will they risk one more lib-lib government?

@Lift not sure you read my additional comment:

"after re-reading your post, I'll explain. The 11% chance I discarded an L card was off the Dedoporno presidency and the likelyhood he drew LLF. I think the LLL chance for my presidency was much lower than that and around 1% from recollection

The next government has to be Lift-Scene "

You passed Liberal policies as a Chancellor but a Hitler or Fascist could have done that in order to buy credit for later rounds when discarding Liberal cards is less likely and thus less suspicious.

If you were Fascist/Hitler, you could have safely passed a 4th Liberal policy knowing that you could discard any Liberal card on your presidency without as much suspicion.

I was going to post all this before your investigation. But if you are fascist/Hitler that may have prejudiced what you said about Lift, so I waited until that was said.

As Liberals we have to analyse the statistics and odds of each draw. Hence there is a 45% chance you are fascist. You probably are Liberal but you are no longer confirmed off this draw. Lift isn't under suspicion here but if he doesn't pass a Liberal card in his Presidency he will be.

In turn if you know you're Liberal you know Brasas is very probably Liberal. However because we don't know if you're Liberal, if Brasas is Scum too he would know he could confirm you and you could discard an L on your next turn.

In essense Liberals can't give candidates carte blanch to pass fascist policy after fascist policy. We essentially have a dilema, to trust or not to trust.

I had the choice to investigate someone else since there wasn't a consensus on investigating Lift. As Hitler wouldn't it be better to investigate someone else than clear Lift?

@scene sorry about the low posting. I get a lot busier than when the game was started back then. Even following the discussion is hard enough

Sorry. My question was redundant, that's right.

You see, the problem with treating you as cleared is, that you didn't have a choice but to pass at least 1L along to RW. So I see three possibilities looking back at your presidency:

You=Liberal, RW=fascist (or Liberal) - in that case you did pass the 2L to play it safe and force RW to pass L
OR
You=fascist, RW=liberal - a fascist would know that the liberal chancellor, given a choice, will pass L anyhow. So to minimize damage to the fascist team, a fascist, who drew 2L, would pass along those 2L to deny the Liberal the possibility to confirm himself.

So you see, it really is possible that you are fascist and not only at the 11% chance that you buried 1L with. A fascist in your place would have acted exactly as you did, IF RW is liberal.

The only thing I would exclude is that both you and RW are fascist. (yes, RW, I know I considered you two playing the distancing game, but thinking it over calmly, that doesn't make sense). Fascists know each other. So a fascist Scene would have passed along 1F1L to his fascist RW-chancellor, trusting that the chancellor would pass the F. Then both would have claimed not to have had a choice. I.e. that the draw was 3F and that 2F were passed along.

So, F-F is excluded. L-L is possible. But my feeling is that one of you two is fascist. And, as you wrote yourself, we have a dilemma. We can't give anyone a carte blanche, not me, not you, not even greek and it boils down to feeling. Whom do we trust most?

Just imagine what would have happened if I hadn't investigated you. Chaos on the table, that's a sure thing.

You seem very often to be sure the game won't end after one government...

Sorry, no way I'm choosing Greek as chancellor after 3 f policies. Completely against it. 1 million %

Gut feeling Greek is F (H) while Lift is L. That's why he "vouched" for Lift to get in his good graces so he can get his vote. (Look at post 932 "What??? What is this about blacklisting especially if I clear you?"). And that's why he wants specifically Brasas to be L's chancellor.

ZFR.
Can anyone really believe I'd play the way I did if I were Hitler?

Oh now you don't want brasas who is the person who passed the 4th policy with FL. I don't know whether brasas is fascist but from his actions he is the most trusted after me and Lift. Who do you want for lift's chancellor? And you didn't answer why you waited until after the investigation to post your reply to my previous thread and say you don't trust me. You aren't telling us that it just happened that you logged in exactly a few minutes after the result and not in the hours before it?