I think that Lift is liberal, I'm not sure if there is much to investigate there. If greek were fascist he would either clear Lift or try to incriminate him. The latter would lock both of them out. Investigating dedo would give us in theory more information (since dedo investigated Brasas). So I also lean towards that line.

I already cleared Brasas and his extended results spoke for themselves but if others thing a secondary (well, primary depending on the point of view) confirmation would help put the final pieces of the puzzle together I'm all up for it. From my personal perspective this would be the most useful investigation since right now I'm the the person with the most extensive knowledge which can only be expanded further in case of my own investigation as I'll have known constants to work with. That said, others may not feel as confident since they already are unsure of what I brought the table.

Long story short - I absolutely approve and promote the investigation on my person but if others think that someone Lift's would be more useful I'd be open for that as well.

Ok, let's proceed, we talked enough about this.

I investigate Lift.

HA!
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Nothing yet. Still waiting for the result of the investigation.

The problem is, the others can't trust us 100%. Even if you know that I'm liberal, the others will have to consider the possibility that we're fascists together. If we are unlucky enough that I draw 3F and we pass a fascist policy again, the others will at least have to consider the possibility that that was on purpose. But I do agree to the point that there are no safe candidates at all. So we may as well discuss the point of chancellorship and excluding people after the next round and hope that the next round will not be necessary.

@mod: please poke Zeogold! He seems to be asleep! ;-)

Zeogold, your latest post shows 2 days ago. Please return to the game! Don't make me mod kill you!

Hey, just got the result.

Lift is a llllllllliberal, yeah!

It seems that all fascists voted yes for the lift-me government in order to not betray themselves. We probably got lucky that I passed the first liberal policy with a confirmed LF and gained trust very early in the game.

So, what do we do now?

See now, this kind of post makes me not trust you. It's as if you need to confirm "I don't know the result yet." LAMIST.


Anyway, next is Lift and Bradas? Or other ideas?

I thought it was funny to tease the rest of the liberals. I didn't post to confirm "I don't know the result yet." If that was your thought, maybe it means that you knew the result and guess what that makes you.

The Greek, after a moment's pondering, decides to investigate Ba-
With his smooth patter, the Greek manages to interrupt the flavor text, causing wonder at his great oratory skills. Barely anybody even noticed the investigation taking place. In the meantime, a new president comes to power.

Lifthrasil has been investigated.


The current president is kusumahendra, who must pick a chancellor. The chancellor cannot be anybody who was part of the previous government (greeklover and Lifthrasil).

The chance of an FFL draw and a Liberal card being discarded this turn was 45% and the chance of a Liberal card in the next term is 58%. That means there's a 45% chance a Liberal card was discarded this turn and 45% chance that you are fascist/Hitler at this stage because if a liberal card was discarded you have to be fascist.

The chance of 2 consequtive FFF draws including this one by the next turn is 22%. Meaning there is a 78% chance a Liberal card having come up in the last 2 turns.

So if the next round doesn't provide a Liberal win there is a 78% chance a fascist has discarded a Liberal card.

So in terms of chance of discarding Liberal cards is:

Dedoporno: 66%
Greek: 45%
Scene: 11% (it was between 9 and 13% if I remember correctly)

Given Brasas was confirmed by Dedo who had a 66% chance of being fascist and the 45% chance of you being fascist means he could be fascist too, or not.

Saying clearing Lift clears Brasas is wrong because if Brasas as a fascist knows your Hitler/Fascist he can pass you a Lib card to clear you both and he knows you can discard a Fascist card without much suspicion.

Obviously the questionmark over Scene is the fact I picked Dedo who has a 66% chance of being a fascist but that was over RWarehall and ZFR who seemed suspect IMO.

Ofcourse there's a 55% chance you are Liberal. However I was concerned that the investigation was imo a bit hastey and of someone who was a strong Liberal, our certainty of Liberals is now low. I still believe I was the best investigation from a Liberal perspective because I've passed 2 Liberal policies and have accused various posters, more so than most. So either way you find out far more from an investigation rather than a likely liberal Lift.

@Lift I propose Scene as your next chancellor. I have the lowest percentage chance of having discarded a Liberal card and Greek is now term locked.

How about we discuss what we learned first...
As I promised, there was a reason I preferred Lift be investigated.

If Greek had investigated Scene, Dedo, ZFR or I, we wouldn't have learned anything (except the person being investigated if he were lying). If he is Hitler, he'd now have a really good idea who his partners are. (Remember, Hitler must now be just as confused as the rest of us.) On top of that, whatever result was given could not be trusted as it could be Hitler misleading us, confirming his team and condemning liberals.

On the other hand, we learned something with Lift.
Lift is very unlikely to be Hitler. Because if he were, Greek would have to be an ordinary fascist (a liberal will not lie about the investigation). One who passed up passing a fascist policy in government #1. While he would be obligated to pass a liberal policy in government #3, it's hard to believe as an ordinary fascist that he wouldn't go the 3-2 route and blame Brasas even if he were his buddy.

The option that Greek is Hitler with Lift as a fascist still is possible. But at this point, the best way to expose that is if there is a string of "incredible bad luck".

Greek as Hitler with Lift as a liberal is still on the table. It still works through the decisions made this game.

The short story is that the result makes Lift likely a liberal and actually makes him quite eligible for a chancellorship.

Not true at all. It was a 55% chance he drew 3F. That is regardless of his faction as a fascist might draw 3F as well (not like his faction controls the cards).

But the way you are playing with percentages is wrong. Just because you are unlikely to have thrown away a liberal card, doesn't make you more trustworthy. It has been discussed in depth how a fascist would benefit more by passing 2L to a liberal than passing 1F1L as that liberal does not get confirmed. And that by drawing 2L, you can only discard both is the chancellor is fascist too. This does not say anything positive about your alignment.

And by the way, if a liberal card does not appear, the odds are 17/22 that one should have shown up or 77.3%, but 78% is close.