greeklover: Btw, I notice that Scene plans ahead which is good, but also has doubts about me. Well, Scene, answer us first. If the next government claims FFF, will you support me for chancellor?
The chance of an FFL draw and a Liberal card being discarded this turn was 45% and the chance of a Liberal card in the next term is 58%. That means there's a 45% chance a Liberal card was discarded this turn and 45% chance that you are fascist/Hitler at this stage because if a liberal card was discarded you have to be fascist.
The chance of 2 consequtive FFF draws including this one by the next turn is 22%. Meaning there is a 78% chance a Liberal card having come up in the last 2 turns.
So if the next round doesn't provide a Liberal win there is a 78% chance a fascist has discarded a Liberal card.
So in terms of chance of discarding Liberal cards is:
Dedoporno: 66%
Greek: 45%
Scene: 11% (it was between 9 and 13% if I remember correctly)
Given Brasas was confirmed by Dedo who had a 66% chance of being fascist and the 45% chance of you being fascist means he could be fascist too, or not.
Saying clearing Lift clears Brasas is wrong because if Brasas as a fascist knows your Hitler/Fascist he can pass you a Lib card to clear you both and he knows you can discard a Fascist card without much suspicion.
Obviously the questionmark over Scene is the fact I picked Dedo who has a 66% chance of being a fascist but that was over RWarehall and ZFR who seemed suspect IMO.
Ofcourse there's a 55% chance you are Liberal. However I was concerned that the investigation was imo a bit hastey and of someone who was a strong Liberal, our certainty of Liberals is now low. I still believe I was the best investigation from a Liberal perspective because I've passed 2 Liberal policies and have accused various posters, more so than most. So either way you find out far more from an investigation rather than a likely liberal Lift.
@Lift I propose Scene as your next chancellor. I have the lowest percentage chance of having discarded a Liberal card and Greek is now term locked.