Greek do what RWarehall demands of you or he'll imply you're an idiot again. Ultimately if Brasas passes FF we have a huge problem.

If Brasas passes FF, it's highly likely that either Dedo discarded an L card, or that Brasas discarded an L card, and slightly unlikely

That increases the chances that A) Dedo is lying and B) Brasas would lie about his investigation.

Even if you get FF both could be Liberals with the remaining 2 L cards in the pack. We kind of need the odds of both players drawing FFF but it's obviously very unlikely, probably 90-95% unlikely. So on that basis we can't read anything into the results. Whether Brasas is Liberal his best tactic is to claim I'm Fascist (if I'm Lib) because no one will believe him and if he's fascist the best policy will be to claim I'm liberal because no one will believe him.

He really didn't.... read the quote you quoted again.
He only said he would be happy with the extra step involved in passing ZFR's government if the other government was him... he never expressed any preference for cristi's government.

You're really trying to twist things now.

Here's your quote from 740, you even lie about that!
"So if he does pass Liberal policy he is almost certainly Liberal and Dedo is probably Liberal."

It's truly amazing how many facts you are twisting when all people have to do is read the thread.

And I wonder why you aren't as confirmed....

It has already been explained that most fascists would likely choose to pass a liberal policy turn 1 and not give a liberal president a free investigation. Of course if Greek turns out to be Hitler, you have to pass an L too. Of course so would a liberal, but the point is you are hardly confirmed by this.

Then your second government you passed 2L which means you had no choice but to pass an L to me. It doesn't confirm you in the least. Because as fascist you'd be stuck passing it while a liberal or Hitler would pass it too.

Your third government FAILED with over a 64% chance of success!

Add it up, why do you think you are not remotely confirmed by any stretch of the imagination?

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Let's compare it to Lift and his 1 government. He was president, so had the chance to eat an investigation denying it to a future liberal president with bad luck. There was only a 10% chance he would draw 2L and be forced to pass a L. And even then he would be choosing to pass 1L testing Greek instead of passing 2L like you did to deny confirmation. There is a scenario where he is fascist and Greek Hitler where passing just 1L makes sense, but given that we are talking about a 10% shot to begin with, Lift is truly at least 90% confirmed to be Liberal or Hitler.

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Do you see the difference? Seems pretty obvious to me why Lift is far more confirmed than you....
As to the odds, I have already posted them before:

Odds immediately after the reshuffle with 4L passed (2L/10F)
3L0F = Impossible
2L1F = 1/22 = 4.5%
1L2F = 9/22 = 40.9%
0L3F = 6/11 = 54.5%

Odds immediately after the reshuffle with 3L passed (3L/9F)
3L0F = 1/220 = 0.5%
2L1F = 27/220 = 12.3%
1L2F = 27/55 = 49.1%
0L3F = 21/55 = 38.2%

It was a joke about zfr to tease him. We've been through this and obviously we would have other problems if he was elected chancellor.

About the full agreement to governments I am not sure. Maybe fascists just followed to cover themselves. For the first government we were like ok liberals let's vote yes and see what happens. For the lift-me government I was th obvious choice and fascists knew that government would pass. In both cases and especially the second, if fascists voted no, they would have drawn suspicion, maybe enough suspicion to remove them. For the scene - rw government I didn't check the votes, but scene had already passed a liberal policy so fascists could guess that government would pass. Or it just suited them, it isn't clear to me whether a fastwas in these governments. Btw I think I remembered the strategy I thought brasas was trying. I thought he was a liberal voting no to give hope to fascists that they could reject a liberal government if they all voted no, which would expose them. But if it was this, it didn't work. And I bet more nos to the zfr government came from liberals.

I'm mostly talking about the one that put us to 3-0 and I'm not talking about just voting...not a single person said a word against it even though fascists would already know if it was going to succeed and go to 3-0 which is quite the lead. Cristi mentioned a typo involving Brasas; and Brasas asked what that was about, but no one tried at all to make anything of it. Why were fascists so willing to just let it go? Why didn't they try to capitalize on the Brasas slip? And then ZFR's turn comes around and the attacks start...

@Scene - Yeah, it would be really nice if "someone" would have posted what the odds were for the last 2 cards being both the remaining Liberal cards starting at 8 cards left. If only someone had taken the effort...

It clearly wasn't the 1 in 28 chance or 3.6% mentioned in post 543 or numerous other posts in this game. I guess reading is not your strong suit. And since Dedo supposedly investigated Brasas and got a Liberal result, he cannot even claim Brasas buried an L because he supposedly confirmed him. 27 out of 28 certain that Dedo is lying...I'll take that!

Hi there. I was on the road a bit. But my thoughts about the currently proposed government haven't changed. We have discussed the dangers and benefits of a Brasas government vs. an adalia government thoroughly and I have the feeling that we're currently talking in circles. I don't have much to add at the moment. Especially since it's late over here. I'll just vote and then go to bed.

Yep. Not gonna waste energy thinking about it. Just stick to the plan, send vote and see how it goes

Let's quote RWarehall again for the Triangle of Friends who've all got each others backs:

"Personally, I wouldn't have a problem with an extra government before Greek's if that meant both ZFR and mine pass"

So an extra government alongside RWArehall's and ZFR's and his preference is, with zero knowledge about Christi/Adalia:


So yes he has from early in the game wanted 3 steps to Greek and Adalia or Blotunga, and one of who those, yourself is out in defense of who, ahh yes RWarehall. Could you make this any more fishy?

You said I said 'completely clears everyone', that's not what I said either.

And yes I will maintain that at 3-1 the Liberal play is to pass Liberal policy and the Fascist play is to pass Fascist policy.

You can make up your bullshit fascist arguments but the bottom line is if Greek-Lift pass Liberal in the play after next it's game over.

Probably why you're getting so frustrated because you're going to lose Scum.

The only way this is a good play from Fascist Warehall is if your double bluffing and Brasas is scum or Greek is scum, because there's no way any sane Lib will believe anything you say you're best saying the opposite of what you want at this stage.

The triangle of best friends does allow for another scum/Hitler player.

Let's talk a bit about confirmed vs. unconfirmed.

NO ONE is 100% confirmed anything.

@greek: some arguments that RW makes are actually true (which doesn't mean he's liberal, fascists can also say true things). So don't discard everything he says just because it's him who says it. For example: Scene can be still fascist. He drew 2L. IF his Chancellor was Liberal, he didn't have a choice but to participate in a govermnemt that would pass 1L.
But here's the thing: would a regular Fascist choose a liberal chancellor that early in the game? I think not. There were hardly any data on anyone, so he could have chosen a fascist without arosing suspicion. But Hitler doesn't know who fascists and liberals are. That's where the 'If Scene isn't liberal, he probably is Hitler' idea comes from. And yes, he might be.

About Brasas/dedo: no, if Brasas draws 2L, that doesn't absolutely prove that dedo is liberal. It just proves that he told the truth about drawing 3F.

About greek: he is about the closest we have to a confirmed liberal. He put down the 3rd liberal policy when he actually had a choice. At that moment he already had put down 1L, so a fascist would have put down 1F instead and claimed, that I gave him 2F. At that point in the game I was as unconfirmed as anyone, he already had a good standing, so probably you would have believed him over me. So I rule out regular Fascist. Yes, Hitler is still possible here. But that's true for anyone in this game. That's why it is called 'Secret Hitler'...

So all your talking in circles hasn't changed anything: I still trust greek and think we should go the Brasas+greek powerplay route. If dedo is Liberal, that route wins us the game. If he isn't we'll flush him out with this. So vote for the current proposal, that we can move on.

The second paragraph is a good argument and I think it is the first time someone presents this point.
Now if Scene was Hitler, he wouldn't know who the fascists are, so why would he choose "teams" blindly and attack Zfr and RW? Did he see a hint that we didn't?

Another scenario is that RW is Hitler and went mad:) after Scene passed him LL and he couldn't establish trust at that point.

Oh and just to be on the safe side: that 'vote now' remark was directed at you Scene. You're the only one whose vote is missing, according to the list on page 1.

But here's the thing: would a regular Fascist choose a liberal chancellor that early in the game?
Yes, if he wanted to pass F policy and pin the blame on the other guy.
Scene was "confirmed" by his first vote and if he was fascist he could easily pick a liberal chancellor and be more believable if his word against RW.

Agreed about going in circles. Lets quickly do it.

PS
Scene, are you going to answer my questions? Ever? Or am I still in ignore?

Lift, why wouldn't a fascist pick a liberal? I've been operating on the idea that normally they would not pick another fascist because both players become suspect when a fascist policy gets passed. They are not normally going to double up like that unless they get very behind and have to ensure a win (which is what I think just happened). There are only 3 of them after all...

So it's think it's more likely that fascists are going to pick liberals, so as they pass fascist policies they spread the doubt. And the best thing is that they spread the doubt to the most trustworthy liberal at the time when they choose as president, thus keeping the trusted liberal team small. Frankly, your thinking is backwards. They can't afford to get two of their number locked out of governments so early off one fascist policy.

As to Scene being Hitler, it doesn't make much sense. First off, he's not going to be the one coming out as the "attack dog" against ZFR. There are other reasons, but I think it's best not to go into detail. Suffice it to say, I don't believe Scene's actions match optimum Hitler play.

@Greek Why is it you seem to ALWAYS think flawed arguments are good analysis? What is your game? You aren't really trying to think anything through...and now you are joining in on the attack now...

I think we have found our Hitler. He has overextended. It should be pretty obvious now why he seems to want to ignore "valid arguments". Why he keeps acting dumb. And why he is so insistent that he should be included in as many governments as possible including as Chancellor after 3F. And why he keeps suggesting how the best choices for chancellor are Scene (who he keeps calling a confirmed liberal) and Brasas if he manages to pass just one liberal policy under duress.

Hm. Makes sense too. After all we can assume that he did't plan on drawing 2L and with just 1L he could have passed 2F. So, regular fascist isn't oft the table either.