Posted April 26, 2018
@kusu: I am willing to give Brasas a chance too. However, your first statement after dedo's read sounded very confident.
That was just a quick post to say "this is an interesting development. I need to think it through
kusumahendra
Outlander
Registered: Feb 2013
From Indonesia
@kusu: I am willing to give Brasas a chance too. However, your first statement after dedo's read sounded very confident.
That was just a quick post to say "this is an interesting development. I need to think it through
greeklover
Adventurer
Registered: Apr 2017
From Greece
Posted April 26, 2018
According to the second post, we are waiting for scene to vote
Brasas
Abrasive Charpit
Registered: Dec 2010
From Poland
Lifthrasil
Bring the GOG-Downloader back!
Registered: Apr 2011
From Germany
Posted April 26, 2018
OK, here's the explanation:
Scum currently has two main goals. The most important is: pass a fascist policy. They can't afford passing a 4-th liberal policy just for show. But a secondary goal is to muddle the waters and to make people less sure that dedo is a fascist (if he is).
So what a scum president in the next round might be tempted to do is to achieve both goals in one swoop while still passing a fascist policy and shifting the blame to greek. For that he could report that he drew 2L and 1F (no matter what he actually drew) - which would confirm that dedo has drawn 3F. Then he would claim to have passed 1L and 1F to Greek and that it was Greek who decided to enact the 1F. When actually the president gave Greek 2F, which he of course would say. But it would be word against word.
So if we get this scenario where you claim to have drawn 2L and 1F and yet you didn't pass those 2L to Greek, then I will know that you are a fascist trying to help dedo out of the hole he dug for himself.
Scum currently has two main goals. The most important is: pass a fascist policy. They can't afford passing a 4-th liberal policy just for show. But a secondary goal is to muddle the waters and to make people less sure that dedo is a fascist (if he is).
So what a scum president in the next round might be tempted to do is to achieve both goals in one swoop while still passing a fascist policy and shifting the blame to greek. For that he could report that he drew 2L and 1F (no matter what he actually drew) - which would confirm that dedo has drawn 3F. Then he would claim to have passed 1L and 1F to Greek and that it was Greek who decided to enact the 1F. When actually the president gave Greek 2F, which he of course would say. But it would be word against word.
So if we get this scenario where you claim to have drawn 2L and 1F and yet you didn't pass those 2L to Greek, then I will know that you are a fascist trying to help dedo out of the hole he dug for himself.
Brasas
Abrasive Charpit
Registered: Dec 2010
From Poland
Posted April 26, 2018
Well... tbh my decision was/would be more along the lines of testing greek again or not giving him a choice but to pass L. And I already told you higher up I'd play it safe if it comes to that. That it helps everyone be sure that Dedo really drew 3F is a bonus as far I'm concerned.
Anyway need to see the gov votes until we get there really break the way we expect. I'm not pushing for open voting, but Scene's apparent turnabout is giving me some chills.
Anyway need to see the gov votes until we get there really break the way we expect. I'm not pushing for open voting, but Scene's apparent turnabout is giving me some chills.
ZFR
I love gold!
Registered: Jan 2010
From Ireland
Lifthrasil
Bring the GOG-Downloader back!
Registered: Apr 2011
From Germany
Posted April 26, 2018
...
Gentlemen we shouldn't be voting for RWarehall or Brasas based on this logic but then again I'm unsure on the other option.
Also I already explained why testing Brasas is a good move even if he's fascist. Especially since you say yourself that the situation is hard to read. Letting Brasas be president and forcing him to show his colors, will make the situation easier to read. If he's fascist, he'll have to play a fascist policy, which will seriously damage his and dedo's credibility - which is good, if they are both fascists. If both are liberal, we have a high probability of getting the 4-th liberal policy. Both outcomes are good. So if you are sure that either both are scum or both are liberal, vote Brasas. No matter the outcome, that government will damage the fascists. Unless, of course, you want to avoid that damage to the fascists for some reason?
Sure, there is a 10% chance (even lower, if you include the previous draw), that a L-Brasas will draw 3F, then excluding Brasas and dedo from future governments would backfire. But that's a chance I'm willing to take since the benefits are much more likeky and would move us a huge step towards winning this.
supplementscene
New User
Registered: Nov 2015
From United Kingdom
Posted April 26, 2018
Is this essentially a game of luck? Liberals are essentially to guessing who is fascist.
Brasas: I'll throw you a bone. Scene's apparent turning attention on me and Dedo, especially in contrast to how strong his attention on you was previously... that smells fashy. I still think it's a good chance he is overeager townie who went a bit paranoid by focusing on us because of the investigation result... but who knows...
Anyway, if anything that makes it even clearer:
You are composed and logical and attacking everything and anyone = FUD
Scene is focused, sometimes reaching and paranoid = not FUD
Capisce?
Brasas: Allow me to bite on your FUD and ask: Yeah, I have been wondering, do you have an Ace up your sleeve?
Or is this you jumping on the grenade and really really trying so hard out of guilt for outing your scum team earlier?
I would have thrown you under the bus so hard... will be interested to ask RW why he didn't...
supplementscene: At the moment I'm leaning towards RWarehall being a fascist with a manufactured animosity against fellow fascists Dedoporno and Brasas. Brasas: So all that focus on ZFR and yet the implication here is that you are currently town reading him? Please elaborate.
Do you just mean by leaning that you are temporarily exploring the possibility space?
Brasas: So what you are saying is I should fully trust Dedo? Run that by me in a bit more detail... I can still wonder if he would say the truth about me despite, or perhaps because of, having drawn the 3F...
supplementscene: Gentlemen we shouldn't be voting for RWarehall or Brasas based on this logic but then again I'm unsure on the other option. Brasas: You mean Adalia? It's not like it's so hard to look at the roster... ;) From my perspective (assume I'm a Liberal), there's a 34% chance that 3 fascist cards were pulled. Therefore there is a 64% chance that Dedo is Scum. If Dedo is scum he wants to either confirm a fascist or discredit a liberal. So if he is scum you are also scum. He wouldn't say you were liberal if you were liberal because it serves no end game for his cause. It doesn't hurt him either way, he's already passed a fascist base so is likely eliminated from the chancellorship.
From your perspective if you are Liberal, you therefore must assume Dedo is Liberal and align your trust towards him. If your scum you know whos who anyway. But then it's strange your asking, as you surely know this.
From my perspective that doesn't mean I think ZDF is clean, he could be Hitler, or he could be fascist and you 2 could be liberals. He could be Liberal and it could be I've read him wrong but I don't really believe that as he's back to being best buddies with RWarehall. There friendship here is something they both believe in without in game evidence.
As for the board I could make out a few small Avi pictures, which I found hard to see so I have to go off memory of names.
Ultimately it's a choice between RWarehall, Brasas and Adalia. It's between Brasas and Adalia but RWarehall is a bust for me.
kusumahendra: @lift. It's not that I am sure if dedo is a liberal. The way I see it is
If dedo is lying, then both dedo and Brasas are fascist. Brasas then can be elected and passes the F policy. This sounds good as it will make it 3-2 and fascist really need it right now. Except this step will also bury their chance of winning because we'll canned both of them, leaving only one member to make it work for them. The trade off is too big for fascist to risk it.
Considering this, I'm willing to give Brasas a chance for presidency No I don't think it is. They will have one fascist and Hitler. And I'm guessing Hitler is established and they are playing for 3F policies and Hitler as Chancellor.
I'm still not totally sure on this, if Hitler passes the 3rd fascist policy is it game over? Or does he need to be elected after the 3rd policy is passing. From my understanding
If this is the case Hitler maybe one of Scene, Greek or Lift.
ZFR: Ho Ho. And just as I finished typing the above, I got ninjaed with this:
supplementscene: At the moment I'm leaning towards RWarehall being a fascist with a manufactured animosity against fellow fascists Dedoporno and Brasas. ZFR: What's the matter? Finally figured out your plan has no chance of succeeding so are trying a last attempt at FUDing?
Heh.
I actually am entertaining the possibility of RW being the hidden third fascist, with their actual plan being that after dedo's and Brasas's F and F, he emerges as the hero of the day to be picked by kusu after greek-lift make their play.
But duuuude, this reasoning:
supplementscene: But RWarehall was sure the Dedo-Scene government would pass fascist policy. That kind of indicates he knows Dedo is fascist from zero info. ZFR: is sooo bullcrap. I knew the dedo-scene government would pass a fascist policy. My 5 year old niece probably knew it. With all the bullshitting going on before it, it was obvious something was amiss. And it was the fascists' last chance to rally; unless all 3 of them were really stupid they had to do something.
No. If RW is a hidden fascist it's not because he "was sure the Dedo-Scene government would pass fascist policy". It's because he is intelligent enough to be able to pull it off. He and Brasas and dedo are experienced enough mafia players to execute this flawlessly. I went through the Brasas-RW arguments like 10 times to see if I can spot anything to show that it's fake and could find nothing. It's perfect.
Not saying RW is fascist. But I'm still keeping an open mind to all possibilities. We haven't won this yet. And this is my problem with you and RWarehall, claiming you know for certain both Dedo and Scene were both fascist. I asked RWarehall how he could be sure Dedo was fascist. He ignored the question. Despite typing pages of he ignored the question of why Dedo was fascist.
Both ZFR and RWarehall are too smart to consider suspicion of themselves indicate sure fire fascist but you both post as if you do. More dishonesty.
That and the fact you constantly sing from the same hymn sheet, constantly agreeing with each other and defending each other. These aren't unknowing liberal tactics.
Anyway, if anything that makes it even clearer:
You are composed and logical and attacking everything and anyone = FUD
Scene is focused, sometimes reaching and paranoid = not FUD
Capisce?
Or is this you jumping on the grenade and really really trying so hard out of guilt for outing your scum team earlier?
I would have thrown you under the bus so hard... will be interested to ask RW why he didn't...
Do you just mean by leaning that you are temporarily exploring the possibility space?
From your perspective if you are Liberal, you therefore must assume Dedo is Liberal and align your trust towards him. If your scum you know whos who anyway. But then it's strange your asking, as you surely know this.
From my perspective that doesn't mean I think ZDF is clean, he could be Hitler, or he could be fascist and you 2 could be liberals. He could be Liberal and it could be I've read him wrong but I don't really believe that as he's back to being best buddies with RWarehall. There friendship here is something they both believe in without in game evidence.
As for the board I could make out a few small Avi pictures, which I found hard to see so I have to go off memory of names.
Ultimately it's a choice between RWarehall, Brasas and Adalia. It's between Brasas and Adalia but RWarehall is a bust for me.
If dedo is lying, then both dedo and Brasas are fascist. Brasas then can be elected and passes the F policy. This sounds good as it will make it 3-2 and fascist really need it right now. Except this step will also bury their chance of winning because we'll canned both of them, leaving only one member to make it work for them. The trade off is too big for fascist to risk it.
Considering this, I'm willing to give Brasas a chance for presidency
I'm still not totally sure on this, if Hitler passes the 3rd fascist policy is it game over? Or does he need to be elected after the 3rd policy is passing. From my understanding
If this is the case Hitler maybe one of Scene, Greek or Lift.
Heh.
I actually am entertaining the possibility of RW being the hidden third fascist, with their actual plan being that after dedo's and Brasas's F and F, he emerges as the hero of the day to be picked by kusu after greek-lift make their play.
But duuuude, this reasoning:
No. If RW is a hidden fascist it's not because he "was sure the Dedo-Scene government would pass fascist policy". It's because he is intelligent enough to be able to pull it off. He and Brasas and dedo are experienced enough mafia players to execute this flawlessly. I went through the Brasas-RW arguments like 10 times to see if I can spot anything to show that it's fake and could find nothing. It's perfect.
Not saying RW is fascist. But I'm still keeping an open mind to all possibilities. We haven't won this yet.
Both ZFR and RWarehall are too smart to consider suspicion of themselves indicate sure fire fascist but you both post as if you do. More dishonesty.
That and the fact you constantly sing from the same hymn sheet, constantly agreeing with each other and defending each other. These aren't unknowing liberal tactics.
Lifthrasil
Bring the GOG-Downloader back!
Registered: Apr 2011
From Germany
Posted April 26, 2018
If Hitler passes the 3rd fascist policy, nothing happens (well, he gets to choose the next president, but it's not game over). The fascists win, if Hitler is elected as Chancellor after 3 fascist policies or more are on the board. And it has to be chancellor, not president.
RWarehall
Ja'loja!
Registered: Jan 2012
From United States
Posted April 26, 2018
I'm beginning to think the other backup plan is their secret Hitler...
There is absolutely no way we can let Greek ever be Chancellor after 3F.
First, even after we had a few discussions about how Scene was not nearly as confirmed as Greek or Lift, since it's not a bad play at all for a fascist to pass a liberal policy on the first policy and the 2L draw forced his choice on the second policy, Greek defends him calling him "very likely liberal".
Now, after we have already discussed the idea that Brasas could possibly select a liberal policy and risk 4-1 just to keep the waters muddy, Greek is suggesting Brasas would be "clear" and be a perfect choice for a chancellor after Lift. Not to mention Brasas telling us how he would be a perfect choice after 3F since supposed he cannot be Hitler for some reason.
If you are not Hitler, Greek, you need to think carefully in this game. What makes you think Brasas could even possibly be "clear" at this point no matter what the result?
It's not beyond the realm of possibilities that they might take the risk of going 4-1 to really confuse us. Especially if either Greek or Lift is their secret Hitler. Because the odds after the reshuffle are not as chancy especially if their secret Hitler is President at the time.
We get one of two results out of this...
Game goes to 3-2 proving to a 96.4% certainty that Dedo is a fascist. Brasas proven to at least a 64.3% chance to be a fascist but very likely more given his actions and associations. And Scene looking rather guilty too.
Game goes to 4-1 which leaves the game very muddy. Lots of possibilities here. But still including all of them being fascists thinking they might be able to leverage the cred making up for the lost fascist policy. Makes even more sense if Greek is their Hitler as they could count on him having "bad luck" unless he draws 2L.
There is absolutely no way we can let Greek ever be Chancellor after 3F.
First, even after we had a few discussions about how Scene was not nearly as confirmed as Greek or Lift, since it's not a bad play at all for a fascist to pass a liberal policy on the first policy and the 2L draw forced his choice on the second policy, Greek defends him calling him "very likely liberal".
Now, after we have already discussed the idea that Brasas could possibly select a liberal policy and risk 4-1 just to keep the waters muddy, Greek is suggesting Brasas would be "clear" and be a perfect choice for a chancellor after Lift. Not to mention Brasas telling us how he would be a perfect choice after 3F since supposed he cannot be Hitler for some reason.
If you are not Hitler, Greek, you need to think carefully in this game. What makes you think Brasas could even possibly be "clear" at this point no matter what the result?
It's not beyond the realm of possibilities that they might take the risk of going 4-1 to really confuse us. Especially if either Greek or Lift is their secret Hitler. Because the odds after the reshuffle are not as chancy especially if their secret Hitler is President at the time.
We get one of two results out of this...
Game goes to 3-2 proving to a 96.4% certainty that Dedo is a fascist. Brasas proven to at least a 64.3% chance to be a fascist but very likely more given his actions and associations. And Scene looking rather guilty too.
Game goes to 4-1 which leaves the game very muddy. Lots of possibilities here. But still including all of them being fascists thinking they might be able to leverage the cred making up for the lost fascist policy. Makes even more sense if Greek is their Hitler as they could count on him having "bad luck" unless he draws 2L.
ZFR
I love gold!
Registered: Jan 2010
From Ireland
Posted April 26, 2018
I said I knew the government would pass a fascist policy. With all the song and dance before it, it was clear something was wrong. And the fascists had to push for it; it was their last chance. If you, dedo and Brasas are all clean, then who are the fascists? The queit kusu, adalia and blotunga who are just resigned and won't even attempt anything?
I'd ask you for one single instance where I "defended" RW.
But you're right in one thing; I do find excessive "friendliness" towards me at least subconsciously suspicious. It's the one thing in RW's behaviour that keeps nagging me.
RWarehall
Ja'loja!
Registered: Jan 2012
From United States
Posted April 26, 2018
Both ZFR and RWarehall are too smart to consider suspicion of themselves indicate sure fire fascist but you both post as if you do. More dishonesty.
That and the fact you constantly sing from the same hymn sheet, constantly agreeing with each other and defending each other. These aren't unknowing liberal tactics.
How many times have you been asked why ZFR is so scummy and you dodge it with your unsupported claim of "it's so obvious"?
Also funny how you keep trying to push this "certainty" argument when you have been going of how "certain" you are that ZFR is scum for days.
Give it a rest...I've explained my read multiple times...
We were up 3-0...
I was looking for one of two things...
1) A mostly uncontested vote for ZFR where no one really argues about him too much. Pretty sure sign he's scum.
2) People coming out of the woodwork to make sure he doesn't get elected, because fascists can't let it get to 4-0.
I got #2. And Scene, you were the one starting it with Brasas by your side.
Dedo became scum mostly by association because after you were done with ZFR, you came after me to attempt to push Dedo as a choice.
Here's the funny thing, I may have implied otherwise, but I wasn't completely sure Dedo was scum. There was the possibility you were using him as the best path to get Brasas as president since our choices would be limited to Adalia and Brasas. And also that you would have rather contested Dedo than ZFR or me because of our contributions to the game.
But when Dedo protects you claiming 3F and then declares Brasas as innocent, he gave away his wiggle room.
You keep yelling about "certainty" but what is ever certain for town in any of these games...but when a see something that waddles like a duck, quacks like a duck, I'm calling it a duck.
And all your crying trying to create more doubt, makes you look more guilty every time, because that's what scum do, create doubt, and very often using poor arguments such as straw-manning me as being 100% certain. My read can never be 100% certain, but it sure looks really good right now...
ZFR
I love gold!
Registered: Jan 2010
From Ireland
Posted April 26, 2018
There is absolutely no way we can let Greek ever be Chancellor after 3F.
But yeah, there are many little things that I found odd about him. His constant referral to the strategy guide (and Brasas's subtle "if you're checking strategy guides, I'm reading you as slight town lean" #184) yet despite all that "guiding" he offered very little reads or analysis, except his one "let's-quickly-get-back-to-me" strategy.
And when confronted with that he suddenly offers a weak "manipulating votes" read against Brasas. "Hey, look at me. I think Brasas is bad. I'm not his friend at all, no Sir."
And any questions or probing in greek's direction so quickly get dismissed as FUD by Brasas. heh.
greeklover
Adventurer
Registered: Apr 2017
From Greece
Posted April 26, 2018
There is absolutely no way we can let Greek ever be Chancellor after 3F.
.
And the scenario where brasas as a fascist passes a 4th L to mudfy the waters, the strategy guide says it isn't a very good idea especially since the score will be 4-1.
And me trusting brasas after he passes me L has better reasons than you and Zfr trusting each other. You still haven't explained this trust between you. I don't see any reasons to trust any of you yet.
ZFR
I love gold!
Registered: Jan 2010
From Ireland
Posted April 26, 2018
As for myself; I've explained it multiple times too. If scene is fascist; he'd have "cleared" his buddy RW when in government together. The fact that that didn't happen means that *if* scene is fascist, then RW is pretty much liberal.
Of course I'm still keeping in mind the possibility that scene is just a liberal used by dedo+brasas, in which case RW could be the third hidden fascist.