I see that you have chosen to cut out the part about the odds of both you and Brasas failing consecutively being 96.4%. And we aren't talking about live or die. In terms of winning or losing 96.4% are awesome odds in a game like this.

It's funny...I'd think if I were in your position (but truly a liberal), I'd be extremely happy that the group is giving me a 2nd chance. A 90% chance to flip my bad draw into being trusted again would be great.

You don't seem quite as happy about it for some reason.

This is what Mafia looks like when you don't have a night chat. All that coordination and measured distancing is gone .

The plan clearly was to avoid going down 4-0. So it was not stupid at all. They probably didn't expect it to quite turn out this way but they were fighting an uphill battle. But let's not get too complacent either. We essentially have them figured out, but it will still be 3-2. Some bad cards, and we still don't know who is Hitler...it's not over yet.

Scary. I find myself agreeing with RW again. Something must be wrong! ;-) Sorry, RW. Even if I like your contributions and your nomination of me as Chancellor, I still think that skipping you as president is the best play. Although I have to admit it is tempting to get in another L policy. If there are any left in the stack.

@dedo: as RW said, I actually don't understand your pre-emptive insistence on the small chance of bad luck. If you really are liberal and you really drew 3F, then we have a 90% chance of confirming you and Brasas as Liberal AND get another Liberal policy enacted at the same time. Isn't that great? So what's your problem? Did you perhaps discard a liberal card and/or know that the next government will enact a fascist policy?

Oh and Brasas, lest I forget: should you be so lucky as to draw 2L (30% chance, if dedo reported correctly), don't try any games with them. Pass 2L to greek, so that he can confirm that he got 2L (and therefore you drew 2L). Because if 2L are left to be drawn, that proves that dedo drew 3F. Knowing that for sure is worth more than testing greek again!

It's because I can quite vividly visualize our resident psychic going yet again "Surprise, surprise! I told you so!!!11!!!1!11!!". I'm not insisting it would happen but a slim chance is still a chance. I don't want actual fascist capitalizing on the [bad] luck of the draw.

Let's focus on the matters at hand. I too think we should skip to Brasas. It is our best chance of either going 4-1 or find out a whole lot of things.

Still, you have to admit that that sounds like you are quite sure that that 'bad luck' will actually happen. So if you're liberal, you made things worse by your over-cautiousness. If you're fascist, well, you still made things worse for yourself. But in that case I am totally OK with that.

But if you're liberal, you will probably be cleared soon enough. So everything's fine, statistically speaking.

No. If Brasas draws 2L, I suggests he tries baiting by passing 1F, 1L and 1 movie reference.

You're correct. I'm probably getting worked up over nothing. I'm letting this go.

Heh, I thought you were more sure of my Liberalness... but ok. Your inputs if you think I'm tunneling or going off the reservation will be particularly welcome shortly.

Not be be pedantic, but I think it's second time you say this, and I'm wondering if I missed something. In theory it is possible for the remaining 2L to be left in the deck and just not come up right? Then everything gets reshuffled and we go round again.

So when you say I am sure to get 1 L you just mean very high probability right? Because if indeed it is a sure thing, I'll actually be more comfortable tying my balls to dedo's cock while someone hangs a 5 pound weight to the rope and rolls two dice where rolling snake eyes makes them drop it.

And if it's not a sure thing, see below.

Difficult question. I want to tell you yes and just carry on playing without going deeper into it because 90% odds (attn: have not calculated myself) are more than enough for me to go all in with, plus Liberals can win even wrongly blacklisting some Liberals. I don't consider myself indispensable...

That said I am not so happy putting my neck on the line with full faith in dedo and others that have reported cards. Mainly dedo though because for the previous governments too many people not in my top suspects list would have to be in on some crazy lying conspiracy...

I think honestly I have to tell you that unless I see my blacklisting as overall the better option I will argue against it. Worst case scenario is if we somehow get to 3 Fascist policies because then I will know I am a safe chancellor pick and I would try to push to be chosen and voted in, although come to think of it if my investigation (we are assuming I draw FFF after all) catches another Liberal, then this person would be a good option as well and I might be more relaxed at stepping back.

I don't know if I want to answer you really. Nothing prevents me from telling you "sure, sure son" and then IF I get the FFF changing my mind. But I'd rather not lie to you for convenience. But I also don't think No is correct because depending what happens I could be quite ok not being in any government. I mean between you Lift and Scene there's a lot of permutations which I'd be happy voting Yes to...

So that's the best non-answer I can give you...

PITA right? I think they changed something... used to be possible.

No argument from me here. 4-1 even if he is Hitler is better than 3-2 with a pretty big dispute. So I would keep it simple in such case. As regards it also proving Dedo didn't lie about the draw... not really a priority, as I said about myself one townie is not indispensable so to speak.

Good one :)


I wanted to post earlier... too busy day though. I'll work on my reply to ZFR now, will be more than 10 min for sure.

I'm waiting with "baited" breath.

At the moment I'm leaning towards RWarehall being a fascist with a manufactured animosity against fellow fascists Dedoporno and Brasas.

Dedoporno and Brasas are either both liberal or both fascist. It's hard to read.

But RWarehall was sure the Dedo-Scene government would pass fascist policy. That kind of indicates he knows Dedo is fascist from zero info. He knew either he or Dedo would be picked so ran with accusing Dedo, knowing we had to pick either him or Dedo.

Dedo ofcourse could be liberal and have picked 3 fascist cards. It's unlikely but possible. But that makes Brasas an unlikely liberal too. It also means RWarehall was predicting a fascist of the very unlikely 3 F pass.

@ZFR you write far too much distractive text and are way too pally with RW for my liking but I will eventually reply and I'm sorry I haven't sooner.

Gentlemen we shouldn't be voting for RWarehall or Brasas based on this logic but then again I'm unsure on the other option.

Liberals/players I do apologise for not offering as much replies/analysis as I'd like in the last few days. Family schedule has gone into overdrive, but I'm hoping I have more time tomorrow

Thanks, but you kind of dodged the question. I asked why when he pulled baseless accusations in post 321 (and later 324) you didn't ask him to stop FUDing then (while you continue to dismiss as FUD anything myself or RW say). Looks like the facile answer "because you're scum and he's not" for that will have to do.

What I'm trying to figure out here is if he's in on you with this, or if you pocketed the poor guy and still have a third fascist (RW?, kusu? adalia? Lift who drew LLF and couldn't pass fascist policy but at least got tons of credit?) quietly hidden somewhere? Tell me, what are you counting on? You can't be that stupid to hope this works without a hidden ace up your sleeve.

Like I said a bunch of times, I couldn't shake the feeling there is something off about you. I was wrong.