And if someone lied about the discards, it would be dedo. I told the truth, Lift passed me FL so he told the truth, and Scene, even if he is a fascist, has a practically zero chance that he drew LLL so we assume he drew max 2L.
And if it turns out that brasas is an unlucky liberal and draws FFF, well I won't apologize for removing him from future governments.

It's still possible Brasas doesn't have a choice which might be unlikely but can happen. Also, if a fascist policy is passed it might be because you did it so my already questionable state is even more blackened and by extension Brasas'.

Would you have bought it if I said he was a fascist? The guy is Town and a safe bet as far as I'm concerned.

Look at Dedo waffle!!!! Trying to lay groundwork for when they pass their 2nd fascist policy and why they can still be trusted.

It's a 10% chance Dedo....
And when you combine that with the odds I posted in 543 on what would happen when you were "going to be unlucky" and supposedly draw 3L, the odds of no Liberal cards in the first 6 of 8 cards are 96.4% or turned around there is only a 3.6% chance that both you and the next government could be that unlucky and still be liberals...

And Scene what happened to your flip-flopping accusations that I'm partnered with Dedo?

You are the one who came out and decided to have a shit fit about how scummy both ZFR and me are. You were the one who decided you needed to convince everyone else that Dedo was our best choice, right?

But now you try to distance yourself from Dedo and Brasas?

It "should" be obvious why I think you are scum Scene. Things were going great, we were up 3-0. It was pretty damn obvious that fascists had to act now. Who was the first person to really pipe up? You Scene. And against someone who has been contributing real advice and suggestions, and not shitposts or about the value of voting "No" for a whole bunch of governments. Or in other words, how we were essentially doing it wrong when we went up 3-0.

But somehow Scene, it's so obviously scummy when someone displays doubt despite the fact that it's liberals who can't be sure whats going on. But that's what scum do, they try to twist the truth. They try to turn hesitation and doubt (things that tend to run town/liberal because we don't know what's going on) into someone being "obviously scummy".

Let's go through the formality...
I actually screwed up last time, so in the unlikely event this somehow goes through...

I nominate Lift as Chancellor.

Because in theory if this were intended to pass, it would leave open Greek for the one before Presidency.

My thought exactly. This reads like 'hey, don't judge us when Brasas' government places another fascist policy. It totally could be bad luck.

Yes, it could be very bad luck, but by far the most likely scenario is: if dedo reportet the cards he drew truthfully, then Brasas will draw at least 1L. So if Brasas reports that he drew 3F too, we have a high 90% chance that both him and dedo are Fascists. (and a somewhat lower chance, that just dedo is a fascist who tried buddying to Brasas)

And should Brasas be lucky enough to draw 2L (30%chance, if all was reported correctly so far), then we know that dedo told the truth and thereby both him and Brasas would be confirmed.

Of course, with the discussion already out here WIFOM comes into play. F-Brasas knows that he can't report 3F without revealing himself and his partner. So a F-Brasas would likely lie and say that he passed 1F and 1L to Greek to shift the blame. If that happens, everyone will have to make up their own mind whom they trust.

So in spite of WIFOM, the best strategy is to go on to a Brasas government. It will either give us a liberal policy or allow us to see the factions more clearly. An adalia headed government wouldn't have any clearer chances of passing a liberal policy and would tell us much less about the interconnections between players.

Except that Greek is pretty much excluded from being just an ordinary fascist when he passed the 3rd liberal policy in a row. I don't see the value in that level of deep cover.

Of course they might consider passing the 4th liberal policy to throw us off, but then that would be counting on a lot of luck because the next liberal policy is the loss. They really kinda have to bite the bullet and pass the 2nd fascist policy here.

That post of Dedo's also makes me think he buried 1L or possibly with the help of Scene buried both L's. He might be indicating that the deck is now lighter, but maybe I'm reading too much into it.

So you can see my posts. I was beginning to think I'm on Jerkmuter or something. Does it mean I can finally expect an answer any minute now?

That's how you pick likely liberals? Because they support you? A strong litmus test of liberalism indeed. And statistical analysis on top of that. My, my...

Dedo's remark is correct and it is as useful as scenarios that say there are reasons I could be Hitler, so to me it's useless :) I will assume that he is a liberal wanting to play it safe. If he is a fascist and posted this, it would be a very bad play. He can't cover for brasas, we more or less know the odds about Brasas drawing FFF and if someone lied about the discards it's dedo, I don't care about the scenario where Scene drew LLL.

Brasas are you ok with us removing you and/or dedo if you pass me FF?

Huh?

He could easily draw LLF and lie ao we think there is one more possible L than there actually is?


=================================

This thing feels odd. The whole dedo-brasas-scene team is just too convenient. What are they counting on? If they pass F they revealed themselves and practically lost. If they pass L then greek-Lift pass L they lost either way unless they're counting on H hidden among greek-Lift to pass F but that will just blow his cover.
What's their plan? They can't be that stupid.

I read somewhere that if fascists lie about the discards, they will probably say there were more Ls in the draw and not less, because that would make a future FFF draw easier to accept. And liberals can say there were more Fs in the draw, to discourage fascists from discarding Ls and saying they drew FFF.

So what? Let me ask you this: if I gave you a mushroom to eat and told you there was a 10% percent chance to get poisoned and die straight away would but it would be delicious if you survived would you brush it off just because it's unlikely? My point was that even if the chance is low back luck can always fuck things up. Unlikely doesn't equal impossible.

Why can't I reply to my posts?

Anyway
EDIT for my previous post : the play for liberals is that one liberal lies about his draw and at the end of the round when the deck gets shuffled, he reveals the truth so that liberals csn count correctly.

A formality but voting NOon this government. I dont think 2 governments before Greek is a good idea.