Is it in doubt? From my POV there is nothing condemning about him since last time so there is no real reason to change my original stance which was more favorable than not.

This was a consideration of mine mostly because I wanted to see if the tarnished state cristi left your slot in was because of scum trying to hide in plain sight or because of non-game related factors. That said, I'm not wasting an investigation if you're going to be skipped anyway so let's see what everyone else thinks.

One other thing - how are you so certain I'm going to back you up? What if I was actually a fascist and said you were one upon investigation?

OK, I'm home. Did some really good analysis on the long commute.

Sit tight peeps, I've got tons to write.

I was working that out in my head at work.
Since Dedo cannot be trusted, we'll have to assume the outcomes as the same percentages as before. Thanks to Bayes Theorem, we can add the various sub-percentages for a total.

If Dedo drew
2L1F = 3/28 times the odds of any L (impossible) = 0.0%
1L2F = 15/28 * 3/5 (60%) = 9/28 = 32.1%
3F = 5/14 * 9/10 (90%) = 9/28 = 32.1%

Chance of at least 1L assuming the worse case Dedo and Scene working together 9/14 = 64.3%

If Dedo is telling the truth it's 90%

OK, here goes. This is actually not as bad as I thought it was. When I saw the government pass I thought we're going to see back and forth accusations and it'll get uphill from here, but the fact that the two at least agree on the policies passed makes this that much easier. So, without further ado

First:

No, you didn't "think". That's the crux of the problem. You were "convinced" I'm fascist and based all your reasoning around that.

"If you start with a preconceived assumption you'll only arrive at a conclusion which supports that assumption"

Can you honestly tell me, did you in all your reasonings and analysis of the game at least once consider "what if ZFR is not fascist?" and see what analysis you get from there.

I know someone said I like to play the devil's advocate a bit too often, but it's for precisely the above reason that I do it. Confirmation bias can be dangerous. And this is why I prefer not to do direct reads but instead follow if x then y analyses.

Of couse I'm writing all of the above assuming you are townie. If you're fascist then as greek said well played.

By the way, I'm keeping an open mind and much as I'm tempted to, I'm not calling you a fascist based on this policy your government passed. Especially because something new popped up since. But more on that in my analysis below.

=======================================================

Second:

I formally apologize to all fellow liberals(*) for my "shitposting" and especially to RW, adalia and greek for naming them fascists. I snapped, but that's no excuse. Brasas is right in that: even if it was not meant to be taken seriously, it doesn't help liberals in any way and only creates unnecessary "mindfucking".

(*) If my "fellow liberals" includes Brasas then these apologies specifically exclude him. Because by God Brasas, if you're townie this has got to be the worst play I've ever seen. When you so happily did all your "baiting" thinking how clever you are, did you for once consider that maybe, just maybe, a fellow townie will bite that? That not everyone played lots of mafia and might not be familiar with what the heck you're doing. That this is not the board secret Hitler game played on friday evenings that last 15 minutes each while having a beer, but actually takes many days? That you invest hours of your time analyzing plays? And that if for a week you, consistently and out of thin air are being called a fascist without any facts then the strain may take its toll?
Did you think of the damage your "baiting" would be doing to liberals? all the mindfucks*1000 your tunneling could cause? I hope you are a fascist because if I find out after all this that you've been making this play as a liberal I'm going to use the new GOG profiles to somehow find out where you live, fly to Poland and take a dump at your doorstep.
Gaaaaaarh.

=======================================================

Third:

A quick cursory analysis on the possible P-C combinations.

L-L : YES Possible. They're both liberal and got unlucky with the cards. Especially if someone lied before and the probabilities were worse than we thought they were.

L-F: YES Possible. Same as above. dedo got unlucky with the cards and scene was only too happy to pass a fascist policy without getting into conflict.

F-F: YES Possible. They could draw any cards then. F-F might actually explain one thing that didn't fit in a "scene is fascist" assumption. If scene is fascist why vote against me picking him? But maybe at this stage he felt that the need to be in a government with a fellow fascists and not risk LLF being drawn was more important than framing me (and I was being framed anyway).
Also FF might explain how scene conveniently "forgot" the FF possibility in his post 549 above.

F-L: I'm seeing this as a NO - not really possible. I might be wrong here but I don't see the possibility of a fascist passing FF to a liberal and then covering for him. If anything he'd want to create a conflict and say he passed FL no matter what he did.

Please correct me on this if you see anything.

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Fourth:

We should NOT get complacent. It might seem we're leading by a good margin, but in reality we're only safe if fascists are below 3 votes. We can't let them reach that limit because at that stage would you still be ready to trust greek + lift? That's when mindfucks really start.


=======================================================

Fifth:

The one thing that struck me as odd yesterday was RW's YES vote. So here is another line of thought (and this one assumes scene is Liberal):

Now, as I stated earlier (and Lift mentioned recently too), I often when two guys are at each others' throats accusing each other of being scum, they're simply both scum trying to distance themselves. Could that be what Brasas and RW were doing?
RW was set against Brasas and scene but then he supported dedo+scene government ("to give them rope to hang themselves") and even said that Brasas should be next for the same reason. So that after his scum buddies dedo and Brasas pass 2 fascist policies he could emerge as the hero of the day?
Is that why he initially voted NO for dedo but then, due to the secret nature of voting this time, got scared that the government might actually fail so voted YES for dedo instead?

The only thing that doesn't fit with RW-dedo-Brasas scum team is the fact that this would mean this government was F-L, which in point 3 I showed to be unlikely. So there is something wrong in this line of thought. But some things really fit and I'd appreciate your input on this (RW, I'd appreciate your input on why you voted YES, and if you still think Brasas government is a good idea).

=======================================================

Sixth:

If dedo is scum, then whoever of the duo (adalia, Brasas) he chooses to investigate is going to be WIFOM galore. I'm not sure what's the best course here.

What are your thoughts on investigating someone different altogether, like one of the "established" duo (greek, Lift) on the chance of picking off a well hidden Hitler? I toyed with that idea myself, but because we're close to reaching 5L policies I'm thinking it better to get a safe stepping stone to greek. Hitler can't hurt us yet.

And I'm done.Phew. That's some wall of text.

ZFR delivers :D

Who do you think should be elected as next president? I'll be blunt here. I'm not comfortable with candidates we currently have.

And surprise surprise, both Dedo and Scene both pretend they are liberals who got screwed by the odds.

Scene, I was too sure? So now you have another excuse why I'm scum?

It was really too obvious. Fascists have one significant problem in this type of game, they have no scum chat. This means they are stuck taking cues from each other as the game progresses. This has the side-effect of over-exuberance.

What just happened is this...

We got ahead 3-0. So what was the plan? Sure seemed like the plan was for me to be next president with Scene. Obviously that doesn't work well for scum. They can't have a liberal see all three cards, because a dispute doesn't help them enough. Better to leave doubt of a "bad draw". They HAVE TO do their best to push the presidency to a fascist.

So they needed to poke holes in ZFR and me. And look they tried. Poor arguments filled with strawmen and very selective analysis. Just look at the b.s. Scene started spewing. How ZFR has to be scum with no real explanation why except how painfully obvious it supposedly was. And then doing the same poorly argued analysis on me. Brasas and Dedo jump in trying to help because they are desperate. But because they have no night chat, there was no coordination that one of them needed to lay off.

Of course they now claim a bad draw...

How did I know? Because it's so damn obvious. I ISO'd ZFR intensely, there really isn't anything there. All he's done all game is remind people not to jump to conclusions. Remind people that no one is truly confirmed. There is a chance they are sand-bagging, or defending Hitler...

----------------

But let's really look at Scene's so-called liberal credentials.
So, turn 1 he is chosen as chancellor and elects a liberal policy, let's really look at the possibilities. Now, at this point, it's hard to believe Greek can be a Fascist because he passed the policy that brought us to 3-0. I see no real scenario where he doesn't turn on Lift, thus we can rule out mere Fascist.

This leaves 5 combinations:
Greek = Hitler; Scene = Liberal --- Hitler has to pretend to be liberal. PASS LIBERAL
Greek = Hitler; Scene = Fascist --- Hitler has to pretend to be liberal, a fascist knows he needs cred. PASS LIBERAL
Greek = Liberal; Scene = Liberal --- Clearly PASS LIBERAL
Greek = Liberal; Scene = Hitler --- Hitler has to pretend to be liberal. Clearly PASS LIBERAL

Now let's look at the last one closely...

Greek = Liberal; Scene = Fascist
This is the first turn. Scene can either form a dispute or go for cred.

Passing a Fascist policy...
Advantage: +1 Fascist policy
Disadvantages: Dispute at the beginning of the game. Given a actual Liberal an investigation on turn 1.

Passing 1 Liberal policy...
Advantage: Cred that will probably lead to membership in another government.
Disadvantage: +1 Liberal policy.

Quite frankly, I think most fascists as chancellor with a liberal president will pass a liberal policy and deny liberals that investigation. Now if the 1st fascist is president in a split admin, I imagine we see a first turn Fascist policy.

The fact that "some" Fascists will instead go the dispute route means it shifts the choice overall to somewhat liberal leaning, but this is by no means strong confirmation. It never was, so it's surprising that people like Greek call Scene "very likely liberal". You really didn't analyze this.

His second policy he drew 2L. I know because I saw it. There was nothing he could do knowing I was a liberal. He has to pass me at least 1L and as a fascist he would know I'm a liberal. Thus, the best thing he could do was make sure I was unconfirmed by giving me 2L and trying to pass it off as such a strong liberal move.

All in all, Scene has never been strongly confirmed. Why some of you believe he was is beyond me. That said, he did have a little track record which put him ahead of unknowns, but when he flipped out and started throwing poorly thought out accusation at ZFR and me, it should probably have been obvious to any liberal what his true alignment is...

I hope you get it now...

This is actually a very good point that I didn't think of.

One thing that had me thinking on why scene had to be liberal was the fact that he voted against mine+his government. Surely if he was fascist he would welcome to be in the government with me and frame me?
I thought that he needed a fascist buddy president on the off-chance they draw 2L cards. But the probability of that was low. But you bring another important point: they needed to avoid a conflict dispute.
And now I thought of another very important one: they couldn't afford to give a liberal president investigative powers. That's why it couldn't be me or you with scene. It had to be dedo!

The one thing that struck me from the beginning about scene's style of play is that for a moment he is "oh excuse me, I'm such a newbie; I don't understand the rules. so the fascists can know each other? Really?? Zeo, can you please confirm that I asked you a loooooot of newbie questions?" Then suddenly he shows some astute analysis and can hand-pick all the points that link you to me.
I know because I used the "I'm a newbie card" in my last game, but he's really overdoing it.

Heh, if scene is a fascist then it must have been a real kick in the nuts during his presidency to discover that he got passed 2L cards and his plan of framing you fell to pieces.

But I really don't want to tunnel and do the same thing I just warned against.
The one huge problem I see with a dedo-scene-brasas scum team is that it's just too... convenient. It's just too easy. I can't believe there wouldn't be distancing between them. Are they so desparate they saw dedo+scene then brasas+somebody as their only chance?

Let's NOT GET COMPLACENT AND NOT ASSUME TOO MUCH.

@ZFR Why?

Here were the options and I explained before I changed the vote that I was thinking of punting (and trapping two fascists)

Option 1:
I can punt this to Dedo/Scene to expose them
Advantages: People now distrust them.
Disadvantage: +1 Fascist policy
-----------------
Option 2:
I can stay the course and pick Scene knowing he is very likely to screw me.
If we draw 3F he gets a whole lot of ammunition against me, and furthers his claim we are all fascists. 36% chance the entire tables get turned including a +1 fascist policy and next turn almost definitely getting their choice of teams meaning fascist + 2 leading into Greek's presidency. And all of it covered by a claim that I buried a liberal card. Do you feel this was worth a 36% chance?

Then even if I draw a liberal policy, he discards it, forming a dispute. He has passed a liberal policy already. Who gets trusted? This likely leads to the same as above... +2 Fascist policy and the same distrust of the wrong people.

But, there is the 10.7% chance I draw 2L and pass them to Scene...

Does this option seem worth it to you? It wasn't for me.
------------------
Option 3: Go it alone, break the plan and pick not-Scene. Who do I pick? Not Brasas for sure. Adalia and Blotunga are unknowns. I would have had to pick YOU.

Now, on the face of it, I'm fairly convinced you are probably liberal. We'd have a 64.3% chance of proving it IF I'M RIGHT. But the truth is, I can't be totally sure of your alignment. But this is really the only option I would have had on my presidency. But is it worth the risk we draw 3F 35.7% and enter the hell scenario mentioned above in Option 2? Is it worth the risk that even if I do draw a liberal policy, I missed something and you screw me? (Likely leading to the Hell scenario above).
-------------------
I looked closely at all the options...and decided it was better for the team to expose the fascists, that giving up 1 fascist policy but at the same time depowering the fascist bloc was the best option. 64.3% chance of potentially winning the game now were worse odds than we have even giving up a fascist policy.

The risk of a bad draw or you turning on me and letting the fascist bloc take control was more devastating to our chances to win, than making the hero play.

Does that explain it better? And it's not like I didn't say what i was doing either. I kept the rest of the liberals informed whoever they all are.

...he would still try to pervert the investigateion andframe scene if scene was liberal.

I see no reason agreeing with scene would make his investigation pass more easily.

Also, as mentioned before, scene's "forgetting" to mention the FF possibility is... suggestive. It's just that it's all too easy. I have a feeling we are being lead...

And a final thought:

What are everyone's feelings about going the RW+blotunga route instead of either of the two?

Personally I'm leaning against it. If RW is scum and he and blotunga pass 2 fascist policies we risk having 3F when we reach greek, and then it gets real tricky.
If I were to pick now, I see adalia as the least of 3 evils. But I'd like to hear what dedo's "investigation" brings first.

Now, in terms of assumptions, if you look at the way Scene was angling the vote, I'm rather convinced both Dedo and Scene are fascists. The way he tried so hard to steer things to Dedo as opposed to either ZFR or me. The question is which one is their partner Kusu or Brasas (and then who is Hitler who has probably stayed pure because he has to).

If it isn't Brasas, and it's Kusu that they were just capitalizing on Brasas' sympathy.

What is rather interesting and curious though is the vote for the Kusu/ZFR government. I notice "Yes" votes from both Dedo and Scene. Doesn't look like they were supporting you, ZFR, so why? Especially with the plan to push things to Scene's government next?

Was it to get a fascist policy passed by Kusu (and as president eat an investigation)? Or it would be wonderful if they were actually trying to give him cred as Hitler.

Quite frankly, I do not trust any of those 4.
---------
And to the question of why they didn't distance better...remember there is presumably no night chat. There is no planning and scheming together. It's hard when you can't tell people to back off and it's hard not to step on each other's toes. There is no place for anyone to say, "Watch me and follow my lead." So in a game like this it would be much harder to distance votes or even distance in general.
---------
Back to not assuming things, but there is a disturbing trend of almost all "Yes" votes even in the winning 3-0 vote. Scene as a fascist goes a long way to explaining it as that would justify two of those votes being nearly unanimous. The 3rd though? Lift/Greek does that mean one of them is the hidden Hitler? Something to carefully consider...

So far scene has been in most governments so a conflict with him would strongly incriminate dedo in my eyes. Of course scene could be faking liberalism pretty well. Anyway, my plan of avoiding both Brasas and Adalia seems to be foiled except if we vote now for RWarehall. If nobody lied so far there are 2 liberal and 3 fascist cards left so the odds are pretty good anyway for either a new liberal policy or exposing some scum.

I guess it's my turn so I nominate Greek as chancellor.

The problem with approving my government is that with bad cards (especially if Dedo/Scene threw away at least one L), it fails. Then on the reshuffle, bad cards again leaves us at 3 fascist policies before we hit Greek again.

Given the near anonymous approval of the Lift/Greek government, I'd rather hit Greek at worst with 2F so he can choose Lift with safety.

The plan of getting to Greek as quickly as possible has definite benefits.

I really don't think the extra step is worth it.

You guessed wrong. Dedoporno must make an investigation first.