Was tongue in cheek. ;P but I might be slightly older than you then, as I'm almost pushing 40. Which would surprise me, as I tend to think folks are older than me, yet of course with every year that passes that becomes lower and lower probability.

Anyway over 11 yrs here as expat here, wife and kid even. Some of it rubs on you. Let's call it a quirk of adaptation. I rem wondering if you're one of many Poles that moved to the Isles actually, but don't think this is the place for that convo. :)

In short, I think keeping Scene out of the picture completely for now will bring upsides in clarity, regardless of the outcomes. I do agree it's not a clearcut overall decision. And thanks for the calculations.

Lunch break and time for posting a bit more seriously.

Fundamentally as I implied already, I am interested in what you see differently from RW. It seems you are more willing to bus ZFR for one. Feel free to replace "bus" with "scumread" to keep the fiction you are Liberal ofc. :)

But in terms of being most suspicious of Greek, Scene and me (and if me, then dedo by implication ofc) ... that seems to hold in place. So I wrote at RW in 1044 what I would love you to address.

How do you see RW's play in letting his scumreads drive the game, to give us "rope to hang ourselves" as he put it.
And what do you think RW saw in ZFR that he seemed so unwilling to consider him scum. And being so detail oriented, would you agree or disagree there was a tonal shift from effort posting RW towards aggressive RW with the hinge being around the when ZFR shitposted and the aftermath of that?

Even Hitler wouldn't pass the 5th L policy since that would make him loose the game. But he would want to be chancellor after the 3rd F.

Sorry, but of course you would say that. It means nothing, for all we know you drew an L and buried it round one of this draw, there was a 40% chance of that happening. Which would leave Lift with only a 27% chance of drawing an L this round, and if his chancellor happens to be a F then that would get buried too.

And I get what you're saying and agree that there is little chance you are a straight fascist. But you are by far the most likely Hitler given all the evidence (in fact I can't think of a single other player who I'd even begin to guess might be Hitler). So I think the overall odds of you being bad to have in government are higher than most.
As far as who has a better chance of being Liberal, anyone other than dedo and scene (who both passed an F policy). Although Lift has passed an F policy too, he did it as chancellor rather than president and passed up a chance when in government with you previously to bury an L so despite his passing an F he is still the most likely liberal.

That's... quite the convenient request. And may I add that for a liberal president/chancellor a drawing of 3F it is the epitome of bad luck.

*blinks* How on earth does the guy that keeps lying - and lying badly at that - to discredit the opposition have the greatest chance after you to be liberal?

Is that what you're doing here? Keeping up the fiction? ;)

Scene keeps lying about players like a broken record no matter how many times one quotes the truth at him. And he had a hand in passing fascist policy.
Greek sees Scene as possibly liberal despite the above and has also had a hand in passing fascist policy.
You scumhunt a little too aggressively and were "cleared" by dedo who has had a hand in passing fascist policy.
Dedo has had a hand in passing fascist policy.

How do I see it? "Rope to hang themselves" seems like a taunt used instead of "testing these people who are so invested in attacking me, a liberal, by giving them power now that it can't lose the game for the liberals and seeing what they do with it". So I don't really think anything of it, except "fascist policy could be RNG issue, is there anything wrong with the rest of their game activity?" (spoiler alert, there is). I'd have liked to see more people try their hands at government earlier on anyway, since one fascist policy casts doubts on two players at a time.

To quote the man himself:

After he also became a target, the "they never question each other!" comments probably cemented the earlier feeling.

He seems to be getting more and more frustrated from post 484 onward, especially after you said he was "weaseling" in 488.

Sorry, again busier than usual. All of your wall of text sure is dizzying.

So let get this straight.

We either Choose Lift-Brasas
or Lift-someone_else

Lift-Brasas sounds good, except the probability of getting FFF is pretty high. How high is that exactly, assuming all reported cards are correct? 42%? Can anyone tell? Is 42% is really that bad?

If we skip Brasas this turn, then who is the president to pair with Brasas?

Oh, things happened! Very sudden activity after the last vote. Good.

@Brasas: yes, we DO need some discussion before I nominate my chancellor. Originally my plan (some time ago) was to make you chancellor and, if I draw 3F, make Greek president after that. That would not end the game even if he were Hitler and it would termlock him from becoming chancellor in the next round. But that hinges on you being liberal and Greek being probably liberal - and frankly I'm less sure of that now. My main gripe is, that you are too sure of two of your reads: Greek being liberal and ZFR being scum. Let's first talk ZFR: I can't really see what makes ZFR so scummy and I did go back over his posts. The only scummy thing is his continued support for RW, who was scummy as hell.
Then Greek. I was quite sure of his liberality after the 4-th L, but then I asked some test-questions - which ashwald already quoted. Let's collect some things
-greek tried to position himself to become chancellor, NOT president, after the 3rd F
-his reaction to my suggestion to block him and me from being chancellor after passing F
-he actually suggested I make dedo president... which is a weird suggestion for a liberal
-and yes, the 'I know what you're doing' comment without later being able to state what that knowledge was, looks weird when going back to that.

So, let's go back to that 4-th L, which seemed to confirm you and greek as liberals.

Some scenarios with alignments, Brasas-Greek:

L-L ... all clear, everything happened like reported. 1L got drawn, passed on and enacted.
F-L ... Brasas would bury 1L and pass 2F along, then claim to have passed on 1L1F. Not what happened, so I'm quite sure, we don't have this scenario.
F-F ... probably the fascist team would want to pass 1F. But saying that they drew 3F would reveal dedo as liar. They could still go for the conflict route though. Passing 1F and then sqabbling about who's fault it is. But maybe they decided to risk the 4-th L rather than all 3 fascists looking bad? Since dedo was connected to Brasas. Possible, but there were better options than risking the 4-th L. So I'm putting this scenario as possible, but not likely.
L-F ... Brasas would pass along 1F1L, greek would enact 1F and blame Brasas/dedo for it. Not what happened.
L-H ... Brasas would pass along 1F1L, greek would have no choice but to pass L, if he wants to remain confirmed liberal.
F-H or H-F ... at first glance similar to F-F, only that the incentive to avoid conflict is much larger to protect Hitlers liberality. Definitely possible.

So. there are scenarios where Brasas is L even if greek is Hitler and if not both are liberal, Hitler will be among them. (the LF, FL and FF scenarios aren't very likely). Brasas is also definitely more likely liberal than dedo, but still he seems to be solid part of the Greek/Scene/dedo/Brasas block. The only quesion is: if Greek/Scene/dedo are fascists, did they just charm Brasas and me into going along with them by liberal-reading us? Or is Brasas actually part of that team. Or is the scum triple actually ZFR/RW(ashwald)/adalia +some probably lurking Hitler.

In any case we seem to have two linked teams of 3 to 4 players and now my task will be to decide between them.

(not done yet, more will follow, in 10 min or sooner if someone bumps)

You conveniently missed one other name I mentioned lol.

That was Greek for Hitler, but I've been sitting on that and was eventually going to ask you again as it looks like your random pulls were quite aligned with your current reads :)

Since you asked though, eventually becomes now. So... quite prescient number generator huh?

I'd like to point out that I've never "supported" RW. As I've said before, I've in fact twice said he was suspicious (562, 577) and later when he was on the verge of ragequitting I asked him to be investigated because I found his behaviour odd. If anything, he supported me.

My initial "support" for him stemmed from the fact that he and scene couldn't both be fascists (otherwise scene would "clear" his scumbuddy when in government), and at that time I was leaning towards scene being fascist, so by logic RW had to be liberal.

Also, you mean RW the player or RW the person. If the latter, then by your own admission you're leaning liberal on his replacement ash.

Yes, the fiction that you are Liberal :)

It's hard to do, but I'm trying to give you the benefit of the substitute. Heroic effort really...

Now I really need to get going. Will be back latter to see what has developed and answer anything else in your reply to me.

hehehe what now? You suggesting I think RW, adalia and greek are a scum team?

I've said my reads about those three already, adalia leaning liberal, more by default than anything, RW possible liberal but his ragequit made me reevaluate him as a hidden fascist (though ash again has me leaning liberal) and greek I'm regarding as the most likely H.

So, no, those random names are quite opposite of my current reads.

Not suggesting, I'm stating it directly. Reverse correlation is still correlation. For greek the alignment is positive, for the other two the alignment is reversed ... not sure what the opposite of bussing is called though... buddying perhaps.

... and you really think that was a real admission and not just cynicism? Then what about Greeks admission of being Hitler? Did you take that to be literal too?

Anyhow. Thanks for the bump. I'm coming to my problem now: even if we restrict our governments to the mostly trusted players (from my point of view), we are only three: Greek, Brasas and me. We can't juggle the government between us, since two will always be term-locked after a government. So if we don't manage to enact the last L this round, we will need to include an unknown player in the next government.

So, path 1: Me+Brasas, I draw 3F, then Greek as president + ...who? Not Scene, please. He is too erratic and has stated too many false or incomplete or contradictory things. That would be flying blind with respect to the chancellor after the 3rd F. Which isn't good.
Advantage of this path: Brasas still was part of the 4-th L passing government so he might enact L if I give him 1L. And if he doesn't, we know we can exclude his entire gang. dedo is hard-linked to him, but Greek and Scene are also soft-linked.

Path 2: I follow the suggestion that Greek made some time in between and we use this government, the last one where the Hitler danger isn't yet given, to test one last player. One of the ones that didn't participate yet. Again, drawing 3F would be the worst case, since it doesn't tell us anything. But if I draw 1F1L, pass the L and it doesn't get enacted, we know that that player is fascist. So I would suggest to take one out of the other defined team, adalia/ZFR/ashwald (though I would not pick the latter). Let them show what they are made of.

Of course the idea on each path to test an entire group by testing one of their members hinges on two things: 1) you trust me more than the members of that group and 2) the group is actually linked and not just one F who is good at influencing liberals. Keep in mind that we only have two hard-links and both are only one-way: if Brasas is fascist, then so is dedo and if I were fascist (which I am not), then greek would have to be too. If you think that the 'test a team' idea isn't going to work, we can also test one of the lurkers instead.

So, I call for your input and, connected to that, your inofficial vote: Path 1 (Brasas+flying blind after that, if 3F are drawn) or Path 2 (testing one more player, if so, whom would you suggest)?