*popcorn

Is this reverse psychology because you want us to put you out of your misery?

Maybe... maybe... but then again, maybe not.

*shoots Kusu

@ZFR
Want to jump in front of the bullet?

I'm glad you're here. If you vanished, I might have to like, read the thread or do some actual work or something!

I'm still super busy at work, and on top of that my wife will be out of town until the weekend - dad duty is time consuming...

Overall I'm still not deviating from the theory that ZFR, RW and likely Adalia are the scum team.
I have now been more explicit that I'm considering kusu for the H spot. This is a read I'm less sure of but I've been sitting on it for a while (I think I breadcrumbed it earlier).

Full frontal - if we do get to 3F I will not be super happy with greek / Lift as chancellors, but I might roll with it after thinking and discussing thoroughly. I do continue to like how both of them are trying to think ahead and safety-proof the next governments as much as possible.

You're right I didn't have a choice but to pass an L on that draw but on Greeks First Presidency I could have discarded a Liberal card and passed a Fascist Policy but did not.

And you're right during Scene/RWarehall 2 fascists would probably have wanted to either both discard a card or confirm each other. 2 Fascists would claim there was one liberal card. So either one of RWarehall and Scene or both must be Liberal.

Now while I suspect RWarehall is fascist, he might be a liberal believing I'm fascist for A) Accusing him and B) Not confirming him. Ofcourse alongside ZFR and Adalia all yet again have teamed up against one player, ie Greek. In turn I've discussed how this round has made Greek statistically less likely from the blind liberal perspective.

After further analysis I will confess the chances of me being fascist from a blind liberal perspective are higher:

Let's say Dedo is fascist, what is the chance of me being a fascist and choosing him? 3/9, so 33% (because Hitler wouldn't want to draw attention to himself this early). So therefore that gives a 0.64x0.33 = 21% chance I picked him because I was fascist and wanted a fellow fascist to pass a fascist policy.

Now I am Liberal so I very much want to be Chancellor in the next round. If you believe RWarehall is fascist you must believe I am Liberal or Hitler. And Hitler is unlikely to make as much comotion as I made earlier in the game

Your best bets are therefore between Scene and Brasas, your choice, or the groups choice?

We should also discuss your next choice of President if a fascist policy passes because you get to pick. Scene, Brasas or Greek? Going to Greek gets back round to you again quickly if those all fail.

You are the only person that I would be ok with testing next round if we don't pick brasas. Picking dedo has no point since brasas choice is "strictly better" than dedo, I suppose all of you understand what I mean, if brasas turns out fascist then dedo is fascist too, and if dedo is liberal then brasas is liberal and we win if Lift draws L, but if dedo is fascist there is a chance brasas is liberal and picking dedo over brasas is disadvantage in this case. And the rest are totally unknown.

It's pretty clear at this point, some people are just throwing names out there for distraction.

Serious Brasas? Kusu is Hitler and on a team with ZFR, Adalia and I? Do you even think about the crap you are saying? So two of us would be voting down our Hitler letting him stay unconfirmed?

And seriously Greek, you are giving no thought to the combinations. Your best theory is that all your fascists have tried so hard to hide all game and do nothing? Unanimous votes for 100% liberal governments all game except Scene/me where you think you got lucky when Scene passed 2L? C'mon, don't be so stupid (IF you are a liberal).

Not much - too little free time :(

Which is why I've been sitting on that one for a while. In general - and feel free to shoot holes in this - my thought was that ZFR overeacted and you distanced. We tend to play deep scum in GOG anyway, and maybe in this case it bit you.

By the time ZFR had his episode and the town block started gelling, you were down to relying on luck of the draw and FUD. That's perhaps overly optimistic, but it's a working theory.

What's yours? With specifics I mean... You can ofc suspect everyone but 6 of us are town. Who do you trust and who don't you trust? Don't be coy now... cards on the table please.

I've been saying it...
My leading theory is Greek (Hitler), Scene, Dedo, and you Brasas. It touches all the bases as to why no one has opposed any of the governments. You, Brasas, would be almost forced to pass the 4th liberal policy as passing a fascist policy locks out you and Dedo with 96% certainty but strongly implicates Scene who helped you guide everything to Dedo. On top of that, it might even tarnish your Hitler. Hitler by himself would be a lost game for you because everyone else but Greek probably realized Greek would be banned from Chancellorships.

There are possible wheels off this: Greek (Hitler), Scene, Dedo, +1). Still all the bases covered, but you'd actually be passing a liberal policy because you are liberal. Greek wouldn't throw you under the bus because he can't know your alignment and can't afford a dispute as his government is scheduled next. Plus, he still has hopes of a chancellorship to win the game. Kusu is a good candidate here because both Scene and Dedo voted for his government the 2nd vote. Adalia could be a candidate with Dedo trying to double-bluff us into voting for him but not you (although the unanimous vote makes this less likely). Or maybe Blotunga as he also selected Dedo as a chancellor. Even ZFR could be the 4th and just strongly distancing with Scene. Or it could be Lift.

Then there is Greek (Hitler), Dedo, Brasas, +1 where Scene is just over-reacting and you guys take advantage of it. Pretty much same commentary as above.

Non-Greek Hitler options still favor the same core (Scene/Dedo/Brasas) with Kusu as a leading candidate for Hitler due to Scene and Dedo supporting him vote 2 (trying to give him cred?)

Well here we stumble on the same spot as always... I know I'm liberal, so Greek, Scene, Dedo + 1 it would have to be indeed.

And for the +1 spot why not ZFR much higher? Afterall your stubborn blindspot regarding any scummyness in his play is what IMO burned you, more than him naming you as accomplice.

And considering Dedo didn't lie about me, I also find it hard to think through why he'd not just muddy the waters instead of doing a gambit to be town read by association.

As for the Greek, Scene pair... well I considered that earlier. But recently not so much.

By the way. First you imply I'm crapping around, then you end with me maybe having guessed Hitler...

Also you should not have voted for a Greek government, and you should have pushed for Blotunga to have a go... so you put the cards on the table, but you haven't really been playing accordingly to those cards.

Care to comment?

Lots of insinuations...
1) Because waffling on vote 2 for his own government doesn't sound like a fascist thing to do. And what "scumminess" is there? Neither you nor Scene have provided a decent explanation for your tunneling suspicions all game. That is why it really looks like both of you were the scum team trying to dig out from a bad situation at 3-0. When people make such accusations and cannot back them up, followed by an "unlucky" 3F draw after the two of you discredited ZFR, what the heck is someone supposed to think?

2) Why wouldn't he declare you liberal? You did seem to be taking his side. Consensus was for him to pick either you or Adalia. As scum, he has to follow through. There were associations whichever way he tried to play it. You act like there is no way he'd try to confirm you as scum, but look where we are now?

3) What is this "having guessed Hitler" stuff. You know who Hitler is or isn't if you are fascist. I've seen the "playing dunb" act before. You are too experienced to make me believe that one. And yes, all you have done all game is sling mud claiming all others are doing is FUD or shitposting. No real analysis coming from you at all. Just directed attacks and excuses.

4) Really? Blotunga? That should be rather clear, getting to Greek/Lift before 3F was the best way to figure out which one was most likely Hitler. Not to mention Blotunga's curious choice to pick Dedo, the one who claimed 3F. I poked both of them, still couldn't tell. Was leaning to it being Lift, until Greek failed to pass a liberal policy and declared Lift liberal which means the only way he is fascist is if both are.

Then looking at how the game played out, it's inconsistent with Greek being just an ordinary fascist. Now, while Greek (H)/Lift (F) is possible, there were only 3 options of a government here. Kusu, who seemed to have the support of people I now deem suspicious on vote 2; Scene who is really suspicious; and Lift who if paired with Greek means one of you or Scene is just a misguided liberal, but the way you are both distorting the truth, that seems unlikely.

Insinuations? I can be oblique but the one insinuating a lot is you. Like, is there anyone in the game you actually townread? Other than ZFR I mean.

Let's take it 1 by 1:

1) waffling on the vote was both kind of LAMIST, and maybe him overreacting to being paired with his Hitler - which given his Resistance experience would be understandable. The big tell from ZFR is right in front of your nose, but you keep ignoring it. Do you like, know him? The shitposting he did is completely out of character for town ZFR - me baiting him was the gentlest of provocations. Scum Yogsloth baiting whoever (Wyrm?Adalia?) into suicide I was not... Granted it's also out of character for scum ZFR, but I would bet actual money he will never do it again. It was his first time as scum, and so we got lucky. That's the only thing that makes sense to me. You can call it tunneling but the bloody posts are still there for us all to read. So like read them and come back and tell me with a straight face how town ZFR melts like that.

2) So maybe he pocketed me and I'm town, or it was an act and I'm scum. You'll have to decide to trust me or not eventually. Unless of course you're not interested in town clearing at all. This game might not be Mafia, but particularly because there's no nightkill town clearing is at least as important as regular Mafia. I'd say it's more honestly.

BTW, others posted why they think scum dedo clearing me is bad strategy. I did not work through that logic on my own.

3) I meant that when I read Kusus as Hitler you are immediately going "people are throwing names as crap without thinking" but then in your scenario where Greek isn't Hitler, it's Kusu. Again, is there anyoen other than ZFR that you're town reading?

4) Actually that's a good point. You hadn't mentioned Lift yet. Is that WIFOM so we think he's the Hitler and blacklist him? Is he your other townread than ZFR? You, Lift, ZFR. 3 of 6 at this stage in the game won't get you far... I mean, getting to your Hitler reads on priority is really super towny, because we should let scum "hang themselves". That's close enough to advocating No lynching at LyLo. Out of character for you IMO.

Do tell me more, please.

More ridiculous attacks. You are the asshole accusing people of shitposting and FUD, when the vast majority of your posts have been the same. Both you and Scene muddying the entire game.

1) ZFR with experience in this game doesn't immediately push for his Hitler to be passed? Are you kidding me? Waffles instead? Your whole argument is complete bunk. Like I said, an excuse to deceive and distract some of the inexperienced liberals.

2) I don't trust you. I think giving you an option to screw us is a horrible plan. And which others? Since you can't seem to explain yourself why its "such a bad strategy". How about you look at the results? Both you and Dedo are likely fascists, yet now from one forced liberal policy, at least 3 of the newbies are buying into your "bad strategy". Both Blotunga and Kusu picked Dedo for Chancellor. Greek is doubling down on how trustworthy you supposedly are. You can't tell me they are all fascists. So tell me again how Dedo's investigation strategy was "so terrible if he were scum". Talk about a line of bullshit.

3) Townread? What the hell is that anyway? I rate every player with the appropriate levels of distrust as any good liberal should.

My rough reads (for now - subject to change with more information)

Townly:
ZFR - because all the suspicious people seem to come up with bad arguments to attack him.
Lift - because he lost the battle of the possible Hitlers. And him as Hitler with Greek makes little sense.
Adalia/Blotunga - because they haven't really pushed that much for anything. Adalia pushed more, Blotunga made a poor choice choosing Dedo or he would be above Adalia.
Kusu - the least likely of the remaining 5 to be scum, but I do worry about Hitler scenarios surrounding him.
Brasas - because Scene has earned even more distrust than you, and if Adalia is a liberal, scum may have had no choice but to go through you.
Scene - Possibilities or either/or with Brasas.
Dedo - because almost every fascist scenario that makes sense runs through him.

Okay after reading today's posts, I can't believe I posted RWarehall might be Lib. So my current read is:

RWarehall/ZFR have realised they've been clocked as Scum right?

So as Scum that realise they're perceived as scum, do they attack Greek because he's liberal and want people to vote against a Liberal OR do they attack Greek because he's Hitler knowing that Liberals will side with Hitler assuming he's Liberal if they think the fascists are against him. IE the double bluff? And for the record all of the TRIANGLE OF FRIENDS has supported this.

That's what the TV is for. Default auto-parenting. That and snacks.

Yeah, clearly you are thinking through all the possibilities like any good liberal should...(sarcasm)
Like you have been all game (more sarcasm)

It's really sad that this sham you and Brasas are putting on seems to be working on the n00bs.