Onsdag: Some random statistical observations thus far about the Pinata Promo:
Number of titles in the Pinata Promo (discovered thus far): 104
Average current sale price of Pinata games: $7.41
Average (lowest historic price of Pinata games: $6.49
Number of titles that are currently on sale for about $3: 20
Chance to break even (at current prices): 19.23% (20/104*100)
Chance to get a better deal (at current prices): 80.77% (84/104*100)
Number of titles that had a lower historical sale price than $3: 40
Chance that you'll get a title with a lower historical price than $3: 38.46% (40/104*100)
Chance to get a better deal than lowest historical prices: 61.54% (64/104*100)
If you're looking for a specific title, or only like certain types of games and/or genres, then it's probably best to save your money and get those games on sale. However, if you don't care what you get, like to explore new games/genres, or want to get games at a lower average price, then the Pinatas seem to be a great way to go.
Thanks for taking the time to calculate and post this, I think it's extremely helpful.
Plus, I couldn't agree more with your last paragraph: if people don't like -- or want -- to take chances; if they don't enjoy specific games or genres, then they're better off not buying a piñata at all: just pick a game from the sale that you *actually* want to play.
This piñata sale seems to be best suited to both people who have a small GOG library and wish to increase it for cheap, and those customers who don't mind trying new things they wouldn't have known about or be aware of otherwise; it's not for those who just "want to be lucky and get that sweet [insert game/genre here]". If you only play games within certain genres -- like I do --, chances are you already own quite a few of the games you might be interested in, to begin with, and it's really not worth it risking the absurdly low % of getting one of the games you would have wanted.
I tried my luck at this, mostly for shits and giggles, knowing I would likely get a game I wouldn't want. I was proven right. But I also bought Stories Untold from the regular sale, to basically offset the fact I would be getting a game I didn't want from the piñata.