kohlrak: I'll let the obvious double standard in the article speak for itself, but it does happen to be from NASA. There's 2 obvious implications in addition to the usual story:
1. There's a time before the industrial revolution in which CO2 and global temperatures fluctuated.
2. CO2 lags temperature rise, implying that CO2 is released deep in the planet in response to temperature rise.
OSS foundation on the topic of natural climate change cycle.
The real debate on global warming really does come down to 2 points:
1. Is the natural cycle changing?
2. If yes, who's fault is it? Sun, Volcanic Activity, Mankind?
But did you ever notice that alot of this information about cycles and stuff never get talked about? I'll let you decide who's fault that is and if that's accident or intentional, 'cause that's ultimately what all this comes down to when we regular people are talking about it, paying for it, and being kept out of it.
firstpastthepost: Cool, thanks for the link it was interesting. It doesn't live up to the claim of disproving all the math behind climate change models, but it is an interesting in it's implications.
I don't think anyone disputes that there are natural cycles in atmospheric gases and temperature. That would be impossible to argue based on the historical record that we have (how many ice ages have there been after all.) The argument there really has to come down to whether or not the changes now would be considered normal within the trends of the cycles based on the data that we have.
I agree that the two key points are as you say, is the cycle changing and what is causing it. I don't think the cycles get talked about at this point because it's just generally accepted that the cycle has changed in the sense that it is accelerating. I don't think it's disingenuous to stop talking about it, if you've agreed that the cycle has changed and agreed on the way it has changed.
Whether or not they're all right is besides the point, it's not lying by omission, it's omission due to a form of confirmation bias. The confirmation bias just has strong merit so far as they are concerned because it is confirmed by a bunch of other scientists.
My thing is, we have a heavily politicized issue, where the people who support the man-made global warming hypothesis have been actively involving themselves in publishing science based on narratives (i'll give some samples below), and at the same time have shown the need to keep people reminded on facts that agree with their point (we're educated about global warming in public school [at least in the US], for example, but this natural warming cycle is curiously left out of the educational material in favor of suggesting that climate change is entirely mankind).
https://www.edf.org/media/edf-calls-epa-withdraw-censored-science-proposal https://ncac.org/the-knowledge-project https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/10/what-massive-database-retracted-papers-reveals-about-science-publishing-s-death-penalty https://www.sciencemag.org/careers/2008/08/if-first-you-dont-succeed-cool-revise-and-submit-again https://www.sciencealert.com/these-8-papers-were-rejected-before-going-on-to-win-the-nobel-prize And that's just the stuff that you can read. The video i brought in earlier on the topic was a guy who had his article approved, then was later rejected, and that seems to be a common thing on his channel when he talks about science. I don't think this is a problem with science or the scientific method, but the idea that science is heavily controlled by publishers who aren't scientists, but have motives, it often becomes a tit for tat political game, and it's terribly obvious in the subjects involving foods (I remember reading an AHA study talking about the "significant effects of salt on your bloodpressure," but as you read the study you realized that, overall, you tend to piss it out if you drink enough water, 'cause it's water soluble). And if you're not well published, you're not "well respected in the community." Then, on top of that, "scientific consensus" emerges, as if truth and reality are a political process and can be voted on. If science wants to continue to be taken seriously, this needs fixed, and just making another publisher won't work 'cause, "Sorry, we don't respect anything that's from that site/newspaper/magazine/whatever."
I'll also give scientific models it's own little rant here with some examples i've heard over the 29 years of being alive:
-White people will be a minority by 2020.
-The earth will be flooded by 2020, due to global warming.
-The earth will be irreversably changed by 2050 due to global warming.
-Within 100 years white people will be extinct.
-Millenials will have, on average, 10 different jobs before retiring.
How about some articles (yes, they're low quality, but the claims can be independently investigated, and comment sections area always a mixed bag of bad to total shit sprinkled with gold here and there [secureteam10 on youtube is fun to watch for this reason: sometimes he talks about something that gets horribly debunked in the comments section, like one of his more recent videos mentions a floating building that turns out to be an advertisement balloon])?
http://www.aei.org/publication/18-spectacularly-wrong-predictions-made-around-the-time-of-first-earth-day-in-1970-expect-more-this-year-2/
https://www.wired.com/story/the-dizzying-science-of-climate-change-gets-a-bit-clearer/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/30/some-failed-climate-predictions/
Well, i would continue, but they generally always seem to be about the same topics: white people becomming minority, jobs, global warming, fat people, whatever gets news articles and funding (i'm sure there are good models out there, but we only ever hear about this outlandish ones). Climate change models tend to be a dime a dozen, so i just can't be bothered to go through them until they've been around long enough to show some reliably predictive value.
EDIT: To be clear, i don't think too many regular people doubt empiricism, nor is science automatically flawed 'cause it gets things wrong alot (everyone gets things wrong). The real issue is that everything comes with such certainty, anymore, despite how many times it's wrong. Policy changes in these realms have a huge impact on the ground, and it gets rather old being jerked around without even so much of a vote from the ground that gets hit.