SimonG: That is how most games have been made in the last 30 years. And for the most part it worked. But this model would allow AAA budgets on a higher level of creative control for the developer. Because a developer with a 3 mio pledge in his back can make a whole different contract than a developer with an idea. In the most successful cases publishers would line up to get this game and the dev can pretty much write the contract.
I see what you're saying, but I still have grave doubts about how much clout the devs would have with only a 10% stake in the funding.
SimonG: Unless Kickstarters really gain traction in the next few years, they will only be an option for "semi-AAA games". And I fear that their will be some disappointment when the first big kickstarters are released and don't match up with eg. F:NV or Psychonauts in many aspects.
I think people would be fools if they're expecting something like that. I'm certainly not, but I do have high expectations that this particular kickstarter will be a great example of the
type of game it's intended to be, as well as being of high quality. I don't expect a AAA style graphics type of game.
SimonG: 3 mio dollars is not much for a modern videogame.
Nope, not for something like a FO:NV or Mass Effect style of game. But for an 'indie' style game? It's a lot.
SimonG: In the next few days all those people who held so far out because of "only Steam" will pledge. And that will be the closest we will ever get to some statistics on the issue.
Although I agree there may be somewhat of an increase, still you shouldn't discount that many people may already have pledged with the intent that they'd pull the funding if they didn't get the DRM-free option they wanted. They may have pledged to get in on things like the 'early bird' discount or to show that there's support and interest for this type of project.
There really isn't any kind of reliable conclusion you can draw about the pledges over the next couple of days. Just not enough data.