December 23, 1696 -

The next month goes even faster than the last, and again, the Full Moon is upon Oakwood Village. The villagers close themselves in for the rest of the day so that they can focus soley on the serious discussion at hand.

There are some fresh baked biscuits and 3 pounds of bacon on a hot plate for you all to munch and keep you sustained for the potentially long night ahead.

------------------------------------------------------------------

it is now:

SUNDOWN -

ANY and ALL posts made during this stage must contain at least one argument or statement either:

a.) defending themselves and/or another player, or,
b.) explaining why a player(s) / character(s) is a valid lynch choice.

------------------------------------------------------------------

votecount / vote count / vote-count / vc

3 villagers want to kill Claire Dwyer [cristigale] -- Fergus (Nachomamma8), Emily (trentonlf), Eric (yogsloth),

4 villagers don't want to kill anyone [no-lynch] -- Claire (cristigale), Sarah (TammyTown), Marie (bler144), Justin (Stanari),

*********************************************

if your vote is not where you want it to be, say so, and I'll amend the VC

Yeah, it happened in Lift's game, sure, but because I was pissed at how Hijack (and to a lesser extent flub) were handling the end-game. That was irrespective of my own alignment.

Hell, look at the observer chat and I was the townie in that game.

I hate long games, period. Hell, I said that somewhere back in like week 2 of this monstrosity. It's been a lot of work/time/attention. We're in week 7 of this bleeping thing, and yeah, it's wearing on me.

Plus in the Gallows game I snapped at Vitek (mod) in the post-game for him making fun of town. In your game I was practically crying by the end and you were consoling me, right? These games just wear on me emotionally, period. I get sad/angry/whatever based on the stimulus, not my role. If I were scum I would have been anxious from D1 and would have quit or gotten a sub long ago.

While I don't generally have "WIM" as Stan described, if Nacho/Stan are scum - and I started getting that tingling - I at least want them to freaking work for it.

Why the hell is it sundown already and who do I need to murder for that

I think bler is town. Frustration and analysis and effort and all.

If he isn't I don't think I want to live.

We're complaining too much, so we got what we asked for. WE REAP WHAT WE SOW.

cristigale is certainly a valid lynch choice as she's floated on the edge all game and won't claim.

I won't lynch Tammy - if she's any kind of bad guy with a day-vig ability, I want my money back.

I won't lynch Bler - if he's any kind of bad guy, good for him, I hope he wins.

I stand corrected, I'd looked back at your final vote of D2 which was 1680 and just talked about Lift being town.

As for your case itself in the post you link, wouldn't you say you are also typically in the "must lynch D1" camp?

Even understandably not knowing at the time that 5 votes might be enough to lynch someone, why did you swing to no lynch? Are you holding her to a higher standard than you're holding yourself on this point? Why was wyrm voting for RW rather than dess/babs? Is wyrm scummy?

Yogs may not have been a leading wagon, but he was certainly in discussion as a viable 3rd party at that point - more likely than Gary Johnson, anyway.

Having re-read all of her posts 1.5x in the past few days, honestly those points feel a little cherry-picked to me from a more robust body of work, but YMMV.

But please, go down this road a bit. Hypothetically cristi/dess, ok - where do lift/brasas/rw fit in that equation? How do you form teams from that mess?

I agree you're not an "analyst," strictly speaking, this still feels like a soft effort. Have you at least done a full re-read of cristi? Is there anything in her record you find exculpatory? Why cristi rather than yogs (who came over eventually, but only after re-asserting his vote on babark post-claim)?

Gun to my head, if it's 2x3, I think it was Dess/Brasas/Lift and RW/trent/x but will re-read rw and trent when I have a chance since that's a gut read (ironically not unlike trent's case on cristi) rather than something I've actually analyzed.

[Defending cristi]
____________________

After thinking about it, I'm also not overly convinced there's an SK. It's either 2x3 or maaaaybe 2x4.

It just makes no sense at all with my role once I start thinking about end-game. Short of getting me lynched somehow, I'm not sure what wincon that role would have that it could meet via its own play unless it has a 1xbulletproof/strongman combo to bust out.

And as wacky as some of these roles are, I guess I can't rule that out, but....

Need to shut off for a while and prep for a meeting.

@bler
Yes I am a strong proponent for a lynch on Day 1. As I've already stated my whole issue with the end of Day 1 was the simple fact I didn't know who to believe and I didn't want to lynch a town power role. It seemed everyone who was pushed on Day 1 popped a role out, and I knew this was not a role madness game, so to me the lesser of two evils was to vote no lynch and hope the power roles were able to help us night one.

As for wyrm I never bought into him being a Mason role but just a mason character. I think when Lift jumped on wyrm for "claiming" that wyrm just went with it like he should have to draw the NK since he really had no role at all. I am also guessing that when I started pointing out that I didn't buy that he claimed an actual role of Mason that it reinforced his claim enough to scum to NK him (if he had flipped Mason they would have assumed I was a Mason too and they probably thought I was trying to deflect attention from wyrm).

As to how the scum team fits together by their votes and actions I have not tried to piece it together and I have no desire to piece it together. I am not a mind reader and so have no idea why people do half the things they do. I'm simple in my behavior, if I find an action scummy I'll vote. If I find a comment off base I'll try to question the comment and if I am not satisfied I'll vote. I don't get much deeper than that.

If you really think I'm scum then lynch me, I honestly expect to be the lynch today. I've played a horrible game as town and have caused more confusion than anything. I will flip vanilla town and then I suggest you look at cristi next. If it's not her then I would go yogs, then nacho, then stanari. I think it's a scum team of 5 and there's only one left.

Why do you expect to be the lynch today?

I seem to be the only one pushing you at all vs. multiple votes on cristi (you/yogs/nacho) and some indication of other pressure (stan). Or TLDR, she's L-1, you're at 0. That's a notable chasm.

Despite the "honestly" - do I believe you believe that despite evidence seemingly running in the opposite direction?

From an analytical standpoint, the way things are shaping up, either cristi has a great claim and she's not the lynch (but in which case why would she be the person to vote tomorrow if you are lynched and flip VT?) or she has a crap claim and likely gets lynched today.

So where is this universe where you are lynched over cristi today and she's next in line for D4?

Again, not trying to make you an analyst, but how does this line of thinking hold together in the current gamestate?

And this is why I hate posting on my phone, it should be expected not expect. I honestly thought I would be the lynch today with how bad I've played.

Ok, fair enough. Thanks.

1) Tinfoil: ...or a SK who's faking vig.

I am a paranoid soul.

Regardless I think it's possible that if there is a neut they may team with wolf; whether or not they actually can.

Still open to the possibility that it's a townleaning 3P or a vig but it will take convincing.

3) Context: Dess called out a "slip" from cristi. I didn't think it was a scum/scum interaction, thus me putting cristi as town because I wasn't thinking about multiball. In light of increasing chance of multiball, cristi is no longer cleared except as not w/w with Dess.

4) You objected, I think, to me saying it was a bad post and questioning why you thought it was a good post.

5) Well, I want to see your thought process. Though I think at some point we miscommunicated because I was never really interested in what you thought was scummy, just why you were townreading that post.

6a) Scumtells: do you think cristi's scumtell is still in effect if she's scum in multiball?

b) Wagon manipulation: I don't think there was more than a little voteswing in play so her voting might have sunk Dess.

Data dump:

Possible pairings:

Trent/RW: very weak pushing on agent for being weird (499 after others, incl. cristi had). 499 was his only mention of agent at all prior to agent subbing. No meaningful interaction between RW/trent that looks like a push or even mild tension. Definitely in play.

Trent/brasas: Brasas pushing on trent reasonably firmly 614/619. But that's really everything I saw. Maybe a verrrry slight "not w/w" lean more from Brasas->trent than vice versa?

Trent/Lift: 1427 firm poke at Lift re: Dess. 1480 votes lift. If busing seems fairly sincere. Leaves Lift post-claim. No mention of Lift at all between post 99 and 1427, but perhaps explainable by large game. Overall: Meh

Dess/Trent: Would prefer to do that at home from existing notes rather than re-research it from scratch.

Cristi/RW:
352 “Does agent’s play remind anyone else of his last scum game?”
434 Backs tammy’s raised eyebrow on agent as suspicious, follows through and votes agent
531 (post-sub) Unvotes agent, says “I'm far from convinced that he is town, but a D1 vote seems out for now.”
1016 notes lift/rw could both be scum but no reason yet to vote either, notes babs flipping town makes RW in particularly look scummy (akin to his play as a4plz’s sub in prior game)
1191 pushes back on RW over SK issue
1323 Notes RW is her #1 suspicion, but votes yogs as more viable, and b/c Wyrm is high on her suspect list and is voting RW. Thinks it “likely that one of wyrm/rw is scum.”
highly unlikely w/w

Cristi/Brasas:
1323: “If Dessimu is scum, Tammy is nearly lock town. Brasas is likely town…If babark is scum - yogs is nearly lock town, brasas looks suspicious (avoided barbark and voted Dessimu when babark at 6 votes)”
1464: Defends brasas from yogs case. “If we have multiple scum teams I could see a team of brasas/babark/?. What seems weird in this scenario is that brasas is pushing for multiple teams. Do you do that on a team that is basically being sidelined so far Today?”
1530: to lift “yada yada Brasas could be deep-wolfing but I'd be looking at least 3-4 other players first.”
In play

Cristi/Lift:
Yada yada lots of high level talk
1323: “So what can we learn from Dessimu's lynch? …If Dessimu is scum, …Lift looks scummy - voted on babark when Dessimu was gaining traction. “ (EOD1)
1374: (D2 opener) “… If one faction, it makes process of elimination much easier - would shrink my suspect list down to lift, yogs, trent (in that order.”
1464: “Lift's argument about all scum being on babark's wagon feels off. Similar to RWarehall's argument about the SK. I'm just not buying it. It feels contrived. “
D1 maybe, D2 if teammates she came out of the gates ready to bus fr srs. Seems unlikely to me.
712 – odd phrasing “Lift is seeming more town to me, which means I need to keep an eye on him, but I don’t see myself voting for him Today. “
Not lock, but moderately strong not w/w inclination from me

cristi/dess same, though in her case I remember more specific points of thinking she wasn't w/w with dess, and the vote, which feels both well-explained and not at all forced to me, is the main reason she's taking heat.

@cristi - can you explain why (1323, so searching your memory banks) you thought brasas specifically looked good if dess flipped scum?


______
So maybe cristi/brasas/x and rw/dess/lift, but...if it's 1x5 I just don't see it. Too much opposition to too many teammates. Of the wolf flips, brasas is the only one I think I'd even have to stretch to bundle with trent, and given that several of Brasas' moves look quite savvy, I wouldn't rule out him distancing a teammate who otherwise I don't think had any real pressure.

But at this point I think we're treading water until cristi claims, but before anyone places a 4th vote let's talk it out. Still don't fully get the phase transitions, but I don't want to end up in evening with tighter restrictions before we've actually chatted about the implications of whatever she claims.

refresh - sees stan's post. Power just went out - have to post before backup battery goes.

Oh right. We're in Sundown because I specifically triggered it by placing the one-too-many-eth vote. Whoops.

(Short, Pusillanimous, So-they-can-fit-more-commercials-on-the-radio Edit: yogsloth is town because blah blah blah reasons reasons I'm legitimately convinced cristi's late game floating is cuz she's caught and knows it etc.)

Went back and looked at the opening of D3 with fresh eyes.

Reminded that I think Nacho is more likely to be the Emigranator than cristi. If cristi killed RW over yogs N1 I'd want a reeally good explanation as to why. Does she kill Brasas N2 after saying "Brasas could be deep-wolfing but I'd be looking at least 3-4 other players first."? Maybe.

Both those kills make infinitely more sense coming from Nacho. As does his day opening post.

Which pretty much makes paranoia about a nacho/stan/trent bloc just paranoia. Probably. But interested to see what cristi claims.

Still think trent is wolfier than cristi, but YMMV.

Also reminded why I heartily enjoy yogs when he's in the mix. Not quite as solid a townread on him as D2, but still not interested in killing him.

Maybe just killing him softly with my song behind the barn when this is all over. (Hint: It's a foo fighters song, so it might actually kill him)

That said, he started the day on trent: "Let's just kill trent and see what happens. When I can vote." and then after being prodded by tammy/nacho suddenly swung to cristi in 1804 and I have no idea where that came from, either in terms of his own progression or the larger conversation at that point.

It feels like a non-sequitor. Wonder if he'll explain where that came from, and where his eagerness to vote trent went off to?

He both claimed and made me feel bad for him.

Cristi's done neither.