it is now:

MID-DAY -

Players MAY VOTE during this stage.

Reads on everyone...hmmm.,,

Tammy - town, about as solid as I can see in this game

bler - I still think he's town, a PGO death doesn't seem to fit with the flavor, but why would you make that up?

Just saw this...

Lol...have to agree with this one, I think you're trying too hard bler. If memory serves the list is based on when the players signed up and what role they chose. Which reminds me of my own unsubstantiated theory. Does anyone else think that roles were assigned to characters before they were chosen? For example, whoever chose Emma (Ixam in this case) would be picking the Village Snoop role? If so, I wondered if drealmer made all the wolves male characters. Curious how it will play out post-game.

I tend to start nodded off at this time of night, so get let's get this out there. Rest of the reads coming.,,,

Fallacious-sounding probability, my favorite thing to get hung up on at 12 AM

Stanari - Unless you are bussing buddies on your team, you've had good calls on both dessi and Lift. I can't imagine you on a team with Lift. I don't have a reason to think you are scum, but I have no idea what your scum game looks like. You would not be a top pick for me today.

Nacho - If we're dealing with a single scum team, can't see Nacho as scum. That's why I asked Brasas about his thoughts on Nacho if Lift flipped scum. Didn't see a team with Lift + Nacho or now Brasas + Nacho. Thought both were pushing too hard for his lynch. I could see him on a second scum team. (not sure the of the makeup of that) Wasn't sure what to make of his bluff push on yogs today. If we ignore the vet idea, a brasas kill seems most likely to have come from Nacho or...

yogs - I just don't know what the heck he's doing. And we all know you can't give him a pass for that. Is this some new, I'm just not going to try very hard version of him as scum? I doubt he's the 5th in a 5 man team - unless all his buddies were bussing him at one time or another. Could be on a second team, could be neutral. Heck, could be the VT he claims.

If someone besides yogs or nacho was suspicious of brasas, I don't recall. Was that kill friend or foe? Was the same person responsible for RWarehall?

Trent - going into the night I thought he looked the scummiest with his defense of Lift coupled with ditching the Dessi wagon, the one thing that gave me reserve was his early suspicion of Lift, I'm not sure scum trent tires to build a wagon on his partner, even to later abandon it. At the time I was thinking single scum team: Dessi/RWarehall/Lift/Trent. For full disclosure, I wasn't sold completely on Ix and thought he might be the 4th in lieu of trent. In regards to trent's claim, I did think that trent might be claiming back when he made the role-madness post, but given a VT already revealed, it was not a given. I thought his full claim was poorly timed, if town. Seems like the opposite move of what a VT should aim for - draw a NK. if he's scum, could be a ploy so that town doesn't target him. I can't say I feel much better about him today.

Right now trent, yogs, and nacho would be my picks for lynch today. Figuring out the game state seems to be key.

Looked back at the signup list and you are correct. It was signup order.

Something drealmer said to me post-launch via PM did hint that roles were indeed tied to character names.

Mathematically, however, if your null hypothesis was "exactly 4 wolves" and yet all 4 draw in the first 8 slots you'd reject the hypothesis. However at this point there's no real predictive value to it, but it does tend to suggest 4/1 was not the setup, despite my earlier enthusiasm for it. /shrug

FWIW, I still think lynching either nacho or cristi is a mistake. Seems a given there's a pretty powerful PR tucked in there between the two of them unless yogs/trent are fake-claiming vanilla (would be OOC for trent, particularly), or Stan is trying to paint her own role as non-town prior to claim. Possible but not probable.

Hypothetically, if it were 9/4/4 or 8/4/4/1 lynching that PR ends the game, and at this point it looks like 50/50 nacho/cristi to me in terms of who has said role. I don't think I'm revealing any secrets there as it seems fairly apparent.

The more conservative play is yogs v. trent.

It seems a given trent will vote for cristi. I'm curious who yogs intends to vote for, assuming we see him today.

Bler, you've gone barking mad.

You are seriously trying to crack the game via signup order?

math is all around you, my son. You've seen me do whackier shit, haven't you?

Anyway, feeling better?

Who you voting for?

Went to bed at 6:30 last night. Told the kids to put themselves to bed.

AND THEY DID.

The world has flip-flopped. All new possibilities have arisen.

Not sure who I'm voting for - I would like full claims. Yep yep yep, full claims people.

If this game is 9:4:4 oh we're gonna have words

Once the game ends you're free to also use memes, youtube vids, and LOLcats.

@bler - very quick - can you share again how your pgo played into the events of last night?

-I'm out until later this afternoon

Like, there are four woofs dead. How many can there possibly be?

What's to be afraid of with claiming?

We need to piece together the deaths and who killed whom.

Ya know.

Like, there's something we're missing right now.

Ya know.

So the basic rundown is that my original "role" description is purely narrative and talks about my general anxiety and paranoia, and particularly anxiety about the barn, barn might fall down ruining years of work, yada yada. I don't have any role name, I just kinda intuited "Paranoid Barn Owner" from the flavor.

I assumed if the damn thing actually worked it would be the barn falling down. Would it kill me too? Would it be 1-shot? I honestly had no idea.

Turns out it's not actually that - as yogs can attest, the paranoia is actually me chasing them down with an object. In QT post #64 (yogs daytime flavor visit) it was a board with nails. In QT post #71 (presumably Ix's night-time visit) it was an unspecified "large club" that I use for protection.

I snuck up on nameless intruder, sweep the legs, and then proceed to - in a mix of blind fury and anxiety - club the everliving snot out of still nameless person on the ground. I pass out.

And yet I awoke in my own bed and clean. Feel sick that I helped kill Sean even though he was a baddie he was someone, yada yada (akin to yogs' "bros" comment). Dawns on me that I (maybe?) clubbed someone one, run outside and no body, and snowfall has covered any trace evidence.

I'm aware that last bit may or may not be consistent with the daybreak post, which notes snow on the ground, but doesn't speak to it actively snowing/not overnight.

Anyway, thus my confusion on initial read on whether it was all a dream, or perhaps a visitor that I beat but didn't kill, and no mention of who it was. Despite the activity, how did I awake in my bed clean, and there be no body?

I came into the day wondering how the hell I was going to explain being visited and yet not having killed someone, and also thinking about the prospect of scum PRs. Certainly possible yogs could have determined it was worth the risk to try again since I'd insisted the barn was the threat, and note his post where he acknowledges I chased him off. He says he doesn't think he can even get into the barn.

Anyway, all that it is probably moot.

Via subsequent PM/QT clarification it is eventually confirmed that yes, I really did have a visitor, and yes I did explicitly kill them (additional flavor describing bits of brains/bone/etc.). The "and clean" in the original message was apparently not a description of state as I originally understood, but an action. Correct interpretation: I awoke (now specifically covered in blood) and cleaned myself action-verb.

As for it being Ix, it's deductive reasoning. Babark-as-doctor had no reason to visit me since I was an unlikely NK and he was generally scum-reading me anyway. Babark-as-cleanser visited Brasas. Since I killed whoever it was, it wasn't Brasas based on his flip flavor. Since you're all alive it wasn't one of you. Thus, Ix looks 99.9% most likely.

No idea what his thinking was. I know he was still OMGUSing me over D1, but...

As for what happened to the body, my guess is in drealmer's mind/Ix's flavor he somehow crawled home (through the woods, in the snow) to die on his own front porch despite significant injuries including loss of gray matter.

Since I now have multiple posts describing the scene in different ways, I guess I can try and answer follow-ups if any, but the long and the short of it is he was skulking around the barn, and I snuck up and beat him to death with a large club.

Can't say what happened to the body (why his stoop rather than by my barn), but presumably Drealmer had him crawl home for game mechanics.

...and that was what we were missing.

hhhhmmmmmmmmerrrrrgggggggggh