Uh, no, pretty sure majority is required for lynch in this Town.

No memory of this at all. brb.

Yes, I'm aware that was just one hypothetical possibility, but again as a function of play I think RW is the easiest to remove from the bunch and still have it be coherent data and not just random behavior.

As for the chart, it was before seeing the daybreak post, and was trying to lay out who was least/most likely to be the fourth wolf in a rw/dess/lift/x pack. M=moderate fit (trent, yogs, then cristi/ix) Y=solid fit (Brasas) N=non-fit due to claim (babs) or play.

I mention it here because I think it speaks to Brasas looking like a fit with Lift/Dess - I'll have to go back and look to see how he might fit with RW.

On that last point, what confusion are you planning to clear up, exactly?

And then a few posts that all look sort of like this:

Doesn’t care for my case:

Some more like that. Keeps soft distancing from him but never votes.

And in fact, she then votes for me.

NAGL

But I can never read cristi consistently. Maybe that’s why I just gloss over some of her stuff and then don’t remember it. Sorry, cristi.

Wouldn’t break my heart to lynch her.

---

I'm probably off for the night. Feeling some flu and going to see what happens if I collapse and tell the kids to put themselves to bed for once.

So the problem here is that, assuming RW/Brasas fell by the same hand, and that PR is town, there's only 3 people it can be given you/trent having claimed vanilla, me being whatever, and tammy being supervig.

And those 3 are obviously cristi/nacho/stan, in alpha order. Without having done a re-read, I kinda want to look at RW/nacho, both because of their team-up on Tammy D1, but also b/c he seems particularly inclined to push back against even my suggestion of an RW/X/Y team for reasons he'll "clarify later."

Perhaps much as he made his case against Lift later.

So he's still high on my radar, even post-Brasas.

That said, without something solid, I think cristi/nacho/stan is probably not the best place to lynch today just for giggles, unless we're actually going full claim -which at the moment we don't seem to be. For all I know Nacho took out RW.

But kill one of them and you increase the odds that they're the NK to 50/50, and 100% if the other of the pair is non-town.

____

In terms of that actual exchange, I looked at what you're talking about for a while on D2, and while it's certainly a possible interpretation I don't think it's the best much least the only. Not >rand anyway.

EBWOP - my last post was a mess. Terrible use of indefinite articles at the end there.

Also, @yogs, feel better!

Well, either you're suggesting Tammy isn't town, or you're more or less confirming you aren't "the disappearer" either. ("You know which role is scummy - my role!")

At which point it's cristi or nacho and yeah, we should probably just lay claims on the table. I'd thought I had it down to two and couldn't remember why when i was looking at the math.

I will agree my role is pretty messed up. I have no idea where I fit in the scheme of things. Mismatch between N1/N2 kills is flummoxing, and no mention of eaten people N2 like N1.

Does Brasas just keep his head down and no-kill to bolster his argument that there's another faction, or perhaps double-up on another kill? Fall lower in the resolution order?





Forgot to address this - I thought it likely, but as his defense of that post was the player list (with dead sushi on it) it was still at least moderately in question.

Still, raises the question of why, EOD 1 & 2 both, with no actual pressure on him, he felt compelled as (presumably) VT to lower his NK profile by hinting (D1) or outright saying (D2) he was VT.

That doesn't raise your eyebrow a little/lot?

Now hat I'm entertaining the possibility of another faction, I'm rethinking everything and everything raises my eyebrows.

That doesn't, no. Though I didn't think of it along the lines of him claiming vanilla in order to avoid the night kill, because from what I remember it was an off the cuff assertion, or at least it felt that way. I am more interested in people who have said that his behavior is usually more aggressive than this.

Yog I read your post. Why I was interested in what you thought about Christi in regards to Des is because it was a far more overt type of interference on the dress lynch and I was surprised you missed it or at least I didn't remember you talking about it and Trent had pushed for Christi yesterday. I hope you feel better.

I'm orashing I hope so tomorrow.

Is it possible today is mylo or lylo?

Catching up. Read the day break posts during lunch, I think some of you have cleared up a question or two, but still crazy.

Re-read Stan in the past hourish.

Possible, but I think unlikely. It only even seems possible in the scenario where it was 4 wolves and 4 whatevers, and Fox was one of those whatevers bringing us to a current balance 4-3 town. What does the 3 look like in a 10/4/3?

Still leaning towards 12/4/1 or 11/3/3 just as a pragmatic necessity.

But for the sake of argument, assume it is MYLO/LYLO - how does that change your approach/strategy here if at all?

If it's 4:2:1 and we have two kills then it's mylo was what I was thinking. Or even potentially lylo if disappearer aligns with wolves.

Honestly if it's lylo I think maybe we shoot for the disappearer so we're not hemorrhaging bodies. If it's mylo I think there is the possibility that we no lynch, depending on how claims shake out.

Ghhhhh. I usually do better at endgame but when I'm shooting in the dark at an enemy that might not even be there, it screws up my reads majorly. Particularly because I don't even know what faction I'm looking for, or who might be anchoring it.

I kind of feel like we should be lynching cristi today.

Perhaps I need to reread the flavor for N1 kills, but Quad and Ix felt like a wolf kill and Brasas something else. However, bler is indicating he killed someone and while the flavor doesn't seem to fit (it sounds like both town were torn apart), I can actually believe that Ix would visit bler. Brasas? Not as much history on him, but that is harder to buy, nor does the flavor fit. And not sure why babark would visit bler either, unless he didn't read the thread.

If bler's NK is legit, the night results were not as bad as at first glance. We could be down to a single scum. Although when Lift flipped scum, I assumed we were one scum away from being done. So Scum? SK? Both RWarehall and Brasas disappeared, although the flavor felt a bit different. These two don't seem like wolf kills. The vet Doc "curing" Brasas idea would be an interesting twist. Perhaps that helps balance a 5-man scum team. I kind of like it. The lovers/wolf idea doesn't really gel with my feel of the game. So a 5 man scum team, or two teams, SK, something else?

I thought a Dess/RWarehall/Lift/x team made sense at the end of the day. Throwing Brasas in, I need to revisit some of the interactions. I could see them all on a team, multiple teams takes more thought. Mostly thinking out loud at the moment.

Cristi! Reads on everyone currently alive, please. Just a sentence or two from what you remember, no need to reread unless you need to or something. Preferably cover both the possibility of SK and second wolf team.

I would not be opposed to everyone else doing the same just so I can process stances a bit better.

inb4 "pathway to lylo"

Why 4:2:1 specifically? And who are the two, in your imaginings? Compulsive Arsonist and Town Bodyguard of Arsonist?

Why cristi specifically? What's your current gauge on trent?

_______


Was playing with a few things thinking about Stan's setup question, and noticed something that is likely just useless data, but something in the setup that, at least in current data is not truly random. Go back to the original roster, and here's the first 8 slots:

1. Dessimu (wolf)
2. Lifthrasil (wolf)
3. docbear1975 (PR) 
4. Ixamyakxim (PR)
5. RWarehall (wolf)
6. QuadrAlien (PR)
7. bookwyrm627 (VT)
8. Brasas (wolf)

All 4 flipped wolves are there in the upper half. While "random" is more clustered than people tend to think, again, that looks more like someone trying to make something look random rather than actually random. If my math is correct, I think there's only a 3% chance of that design actually _being_ random [hypgeomdist(4,8,4,17)] if it were 12/4/1.

Bottom 9 looks like this from my POV:

9. cristigale
10. SirCrimsonFox (unk)
11. yogsloth
12. Nachomamma8
13. TammyTown (PR town?)
14. trentonlf
15. bler144 (PR)
16. DragonSushi (VT)
17. Stanari

Maybe it's meaningless and there's 2 wolves in the bottom half and it is at least quasi-random when the full flipped population is viewed. IDK. Just stood out.

However unlikely, would be interesting symmetry if cristi were neutral fulcrum with one faction at the top, another at the bottom, and town scattered between. Of course, if that's the case town is probably finished.

If fox/yogs/trent/stan are scum, well, then they'd have the right to be a little peeved unless drealmer made it symmetric on purpose to test our maths and pattern recognition. Not very mafia, but hey.

Anyway, that was just pre-bedtime musing. Long past game-quitting time, so with that I'm quitting.

For the night. Don't get too excited.