AND I SEE YOU

HAI

HAI STAN

I'm happy you were all over dessimu so much that you voted to no lynch.

Why do people insist on taking credit for a lynch they ditched???
If there is more than one team, I don't see how RW and Dess are on different teams considering Dess is the one who made RW.

Well, if I vote for everybody at least once, I can say I was right about everything.

I voted no-lynch in protest.

Nobody seemed terribly inclined to take Dessimu.

I mean, except, you know, you.

"I've been all over Dessimu, Brasas, and Lift - but I didn't do anything to lynch any of them."

Yog "taker of credit and master of weak shit distancing" sloth

Based on drealmer's clarification for how lynch works (assuming I understood it), you would have ended up lynching Dessimu if you stayed on him instead of deciding to no lynch.

Funny how that works, huh?

Yeah, maybe. I'm still not certain how much of the flavor is 100% reliable, however. Maybe he made RW and they formed competing clans. Maybe it makes little narrative sense at all, like having one death and sending 2/3 of the village off to another city and then lynching someone ...for something.


For me it's more telling that Lift's play looked most obvious tied to dess, and Brasas made sense tied to Lift/Dess as a combo. Here was the cheatsheet I made during N2 following Lift's flip and looking for a logical RW/Dess/Lift/x team fit:

_____Wolf_ SK
3. babark ___N N
4. Ix_____ M M
8. Brasas ___Y Y
9. cristigale M Y
11. yogsloth M Y
12. Nacho___ N Y
13. Tammy N N
14. trentonlf M Y
15. bler144 N Y
17. Stanari N Y

I'm framing it that way mostly b/c RW seems the easiest to take out of that equation and still have Lift's play and Brasas' play make sense. Perhaps RW/Dess knew each other's identities but weren't teammates. That would certainly create some interesting dynamics.

Thus why I suggested going back and looking to see what possible ripples come off RW to help figure out if there's likely to even be another team there or not, since the NK pattern is still a bit muddy.

Oh also Bler I'm not really putting a grouping together right this minute. I'm just entertaining a possibility that I dismissed until seeing Brasas flip scum. I thought he was likely just very paranoid town and dismissed a bunch of what he was saying - i.e. he had nacho and I on a team together. It's entirely possible that he was pretending to think there are multiple teams to look like paranoid town, but since RW was so strongly SK hunting and then now Brasas was talking about multiple teams and trying to narrow them down so much, I'm wondering if there is something to that.

I don't have teams thought out beyond me going oh maybe there are multiple teams. The only pairing that I thought likely was RW/Dess because of the letter. It would also make sense for RW to do some light distancing there - vote on dess but then argue against it and get off the wagon before deadline.

I'm thinking out loud right now, but I do worry about Brasas and Yogs not really pushing it. I don't find it really not alignment indicative for someone to abandon a push they believe in just because someone else wants something else. Usually when that happens there's some kind of protest, a constant reminder of their original target being scum, something that shows it's not just something they shrugged on. There's no reason that can't be distancing there. It doesn't have to be, but I"m not going to not try to tease it out to make sure that it isn't and then kick myself for ignoring it if it comes to pass that they are partnered.

Dammit I had something to say to yogsloth and I've lost it. Hopefully it will wait ten minutes to come back to me.

I don't understand this chart.
I think there's a strong chance that you're overthinking this.

More for mechanical reasons than relationships. A 5 player wolf squad in a 17 game? With the modkill by midday of D1 it was 31% scum with bloc-voting ability in that world.

Moreover town has some PRs to off-set that a bit, but then where do all the kills come from? You either need an SK in the mix, seemingly, or wolves to have at least some multi-kill ability, and that just seems too easily off-balance between the bloc-voting and multi-kill?

I just have a really hard time seeing that. If you want to sell me on x/yogs/z wolf squad, or SK yogs, then sure. I'm not opposed to lynching him, since in an SK setup only Tammy is really off the table. But I'd prefer to have a good discussion before just going that way.

And (admittedly skimming a bit while I cook dinner and am in/out of the room) I think he's giving himself too much credit for the Dess read if that's what he's doing (I'd rank him behind tammy, you, stan, me, at least).

The first exchange in my Dess notes between yogs/dess was him noting "I could vote Dess" way down in 1183. If he wants to give himself credit for Brasas then sure, awesome, but Dess I would definitely rate him as a follower.

What was your take on trent's EOD2?
What's your read on cristi?

Oh oh oh I remember it wasn't to yogsloth though I thought for sure I had something (but that might be why I opened up a drealmer iso I was looking for vote counts for something, hopefully I'll remember tomorrow.)

Anyway, I wanted to point out that brasas claimed that they had a counterclaim? to Lift. Not sure what it means partner-wise and I need to go back and look at that post again, so more here for memory for tomorrow.

Ah, I have a screen larger than 5 inches again.

Ahh, that opens up a lot more possibilities for gamestate. Will have to do some more analysis in light of that.

still laughing

Couple more setup/role/association spec thoughts coming once I get my brain sorted.

Yeah, one of the notes i wrote down was to ask RW post-game if he was really thinking SK due to setup or if it was a bluff to try and frame a town role. Still, doesn't really help us diagnose at this point, mostly was going to ask for reading him in the future.

With Brasas I could see it either way - Lift was under the gun b/c he looked (to me) almost certain lock to be with Dess if it were a 4/1 setup, and I imagine Brasas felt some exposure in that world as well, so pushing multi could've been honest or it might've just been a pitch to get people thinking about multi-ball and not looking/voting for the more obvious connections in a simpler setup.

How can you tell me I'm overthinking it if you don't understand the chart? Maybe it's a stupid chart and I'm underthinking it?

The thing that I think you're probably over thinking is the whole "RW leaving to form a rival claim" etc etc. If there's any confusion tomorrow, I'll clear it up when I'm not headed to bed.

Oh I remember. Yogs what did you think about Cristi's read on Dess day one?