Nevermind - sorry, I thought you were making a serious point when that was probably just a sundown-compliance toss-off.

Defend Lift! I thought he was being serious that I was being serious but really he wasn't serious but I was serious and OMG, like, seriously, what a mess!


Apparently I should have read this whole post more carefully on first pass. Few interesting points. On this one in particular can you elaborate on what's prompting you to that conclusion? Is that just a guess, or do you find specific hints in the data on the table?

Dios mio! Well, I was kinda even afraid to tackle this since, as noted at the beginning in my gog-player summary, I don't even understand what he's saying at times. Sometimes focused, clear. Sometimes just kinda rambling. I know, glass houses, yada yada, but looking for patterns I think is going to painful.

So taking it in small pieces, looking at the admin game list, I think he's only actually been scum twice before, which was his first game (game #35 - this is game #42 for comparison) with Wyrm/flub, and #39 with me/krypsyn and the whole game imploded on D1 so it's not like there's an extensive record, but since he only played D1 here, it might be the best comparison.

Otherwise he was VT in 36/37/40 (and the mini-game preceding this one), town vig in 41, DNP in 38

I will try and look at an actual re-read of one/both later today when I'm in a more open minded uh, frame of mind.

Defend Stan! Surely only town could ask a question about dead players! I'm not voting Stan right now, no siree!

Ok, well, to the extent there's a pattern, I think it's dess defending teammates.

In the stripper game (#39), Krypsyn was vigged (no votes but heat from yogs at least) by Hijack when Hijack was L-1, and I asked to be mod-killed (for a variety of reasons) with no real wagon either. So hard to say definitively, but one post seems most pertinent:

in this post, Dess defends me against Drealmer . Particularly notable as Drealmer had already been mod-killed (starting the chain that left to me leaving). Later in the post he makes a light push against a question I'd raised, but no heat on me at all.

He listed Krypsyn and I in the middle pack: "Some players look towny with a hint of something bitter (yogsloth, bler, dedoporno, Krypsyn, cristigale)" below towny and over "can't read."

He doesn't really interact with krypsyn directly other than one RVS shitpost about chickens (interacts with me in that fashion 2-3 times as well).

In the ordinary game (#35)
RVS shitposting with flub (though note, also shitposts with at least 3 townies).
In his overall player summary he lists both Wyrm (somewhat scummy but maybe towny) and flub (sometimes strikes me as odd) in the middle of the pack. None of his scummiest (zeo/krypsyn/jmich) or his towniest (agent/dedo?) are buddies.

After that, no real direct interaction with flub, but uses votes on flub as a foil in attacking AFP & Leonard both it seems. Earlier said [url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_forum_mafia_game_35_the_ordinariest_ordinary_game_of_all/post877]he would re-read flub alongside his other main subject (Leonard, who ends up being the lynch IIRC) but then seemingly doesn't.

As for wyrm, light pressure on him but no real direct interaction. Defends wyrm a bit later shaped as drealmer v. wyrm

Doesn't address wyrm directly at all, and when he does it's only to say "I am not scum." in the end game (#1000).

So to the extent it helps, low direct interaction without completely ignoring, direct and indirect defense. No evidence of busing. Middle-of-pack reads for buddies.

Low-hanging fruit certainly in game #35 - D1 almost entirely on zeo; D2 AFP then mostly Leonard (lynched); D3 AFP (lynched, scum win b/c agent wasn't paying attn :) ).

#39 a bit too much of a mess to judge b/c of the 2 modkills and vig shot on D1. Think he made a brief push on trent for voting drealmer, but he got an early spot on hijack's lurk-wagon. Did make a push for cristi (lynched0 after krypsyn/I exited, but since the lynch rules were different, I have no idea how many votes her lynch required. Flub's death post doesn't include a count.

So he was a bit more ambitious in his pushes, anyway.

I haven't looked at how that translates to this game, so IDK. Have fun!

Defend Bler! He's an idiot who can't post links correctly. Surely only town would mess up like that! Not voting him right now, no siree!

https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_forum_mafia_game_35_the_ordinariest_ordinary_game_of_all/post877
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_forum_mafia_game_35_the_ordinariest_ordinary_game_of_all/post911

Heh... for once not flooded with new posts... it's like second or third time only I think?

IRL I have busy day today... later all.

I'm par... puzzled, so puzzled, about you saying I'm paranoid...

You're starting to ping me again. You're just pretending to be in Yog's pocket right?
Got to be... but why... Let's go off the reservation (pun intended) and ask:

Did you make RW disappear? His SK focus a bit too hot for comfort?
Did we eat him unbeknownst? Can we have a look in your freezeer room? You are the butcher right? Do you kill and Yog's dogs eat at least? Maybe your mother's maiden name was Bolton?

(RW was suspecting Stan and Tammy right? Research and reread I hear? What for? I'm going on memory here... confbias for the town win huzzah)

Folks, if I disappear tonight please tell Marie I have no clue what Dan feels / felt for her. ;)

You say potayto, I say potahto...

Well, three factions just strikes me on instinct as a bit much...

I think since RW flipped scum I was not giving the idea that was scum on scum kill enough weight. The 2nd NK is really what I saw as indicative of another faction. I think Nacho's comment about Native American kinda unblocked my brain. I also went and checked wiki for Samhain since Drealmer had mentioned it - and that fits witches I think (my earlier comment on Town Witch was not Samhain related just for the record - it was a pun at Bler, Tammy and maybe even Trent).

So RW could have been redskins, could have been supernatural. Or if I'm wrong on multiball, maybe there is something to Stan the Dexter. Or Yogs the Bolton. Somehow the idea RW was from a town vig seems mundane, and oddly in conflict with Tammy's claim which is at least "mod verified" to a large extent (just vig confirmed mind you, I'm not saying she's town confirmed by mod - her "gentle clear voice" my ass - I was also fooled by the flavor of Nathan crying about the village upon No Lynch)

TL:DR - it's mostly because of flavor. Little things here and there. And maybe I just tend to see shapes in the dark when there is actually nothing there.

I'm going to defend brasas - derppoints for brasas!

RW's attack was primarily Nacho/Tammy, both in my memory and in his posts, though in 1166 his initial pool also included stan and yogs.

If anything, it's a bit curious why Stan dropped out of his pool. While not exactly "data" perhaps notable that "stan," as a string, only appears in his posts 21 times, and the vast majority of those are other words like assistant, standard, stand-offish, etc.

Posts where he actually refers to stan herself, but indirectly:

Dislikes babs' vote on stan (923)
Dislikes my strong reads, highlights my read on stan in particular (1063)
Wagon analysis of babs v. stan (1083) in response to brasas possibly pushing him? I didn't follow the thread back

Direct references to Stan:
Actually address stan & tammy re: his view on lurker lynches (961)
Stan as 1 of 4 SK suspects (1166)

Pretty sure that's all of his posts, only two of which are in response to/at Stan as best I can see.

Again, I guess the better question for me is, when/why did Stan drop out of RW's SK pool? I know why yogs did.

Re-reading Dess last night in light of my analysis from his prior games I thought Dess/Stan fit well with my town!stan read, actually, so IDK.

_____

On, RW, you've caught a number of fine details I missed, so it's a bit weird you're forgetting the first paragraph of his letter which has the one detail that would seem least open to ambiguous interpretation:

I stayed behind when the village went to Nashua because I am a werewolf
because I am a werewolf
werewolf

Speaking just for myself, I'm going to go waaaay out on a limb and assume he was a werewolf. Though I guess I can't prove that he wasn't a warlock werewolf godfather serial killer Abenaki tribal member.

_________

At the moment I'm not actually excited about either wagon. Want to look at something about Lift again. Still would vote Lift over yogs (and probably over no lynch), but coming round to the possibility it's v/v there. Can't decide if I even want to push yogs to the point of claiming today, but pretty sure I don't want to lynch him.

Anyway, I'll be off for at least 5-6 hours and think I'm coming down with something to boot.

Yes. We're missing a wainwright, right? Quite quiet here.
(read that aloud!)

To be honest: sundown makes it a bit more difficult to just converse, since every post has to contain a defense or accusation. And empty defenses of players who aren't in danger anyhow get boring. While pushing someone who is at the brink anyhow will be seen as overeager and scummy. But well, so be it. I'll make another case agains yogs. Perhaps it will make the one or other see that he is up to no good.

On Day 1 he was flip flopping a lot and repeatedly expressed his eagerness to lynch someone. Anyone. But then, when Dessimu's train was still the most viable one, he hopped off and voted No Lynch! True, so did trent, which is strange too. But in the case of Yogs that is so contrary to everything he wrote before and so not-yogs, that it really looks like scum protecting a scumbuddy. Or at the very least like a very suspicious, strange and anti-town play. I was rightfully criticised for not getting ON the Dessimu wagon and I understand why that made me lookg suspicious. But getting OFF the wagon and helping derail it is a bit more suspicious, isn't it? So I suggest we lynch him today. If he's scum (which I suspect), great. (Next I would lynch Nacho, but that is then a debate for tomorrow). If he is some anti-town neutral, then at least he's out of the way. And if he's town, you can still lynch me tomorrow for pushing so hard. But I seriously doubt he is town - and if someone thinks differently, if someone really believes that yogs is town, I would like to hear the reasons for that.

Oh and Stanari: I really would like that explanation I asked for in my last post.

The trouble with this wagon is that yogs is low-hanging fruit. A big part of me now thinks yogs is town from a number of subtle things, and the remaining part of me thinks I'm an idiot because sure, he could probably fake those things, but I don't think he's invested the effort to actually do that.

But the trouble with this wagon is exactly your proposition. possibly scum!yogs or certainly town!yogs doesn't actually point to any next step, does it? he's just kinda meandered.

At risk of being egotistic, I suspect I'm probably the only one people might have a strong opinion about if yogs is the lynch - if yogs is town I'm white knighting(?) him, maybe, if yogs is scum i'm going all in to protect him, maybe.

I mean, I can look again, but I haven't perceived anything odd in any of the 4 votes sofar on yogs. Nothing about you pushing him makes me think the next obvious step is you. If he's town and you're town, and we spend the next two days knocking you off that's us having dug what's likely a sizable hole despite coming into D2 in okay to possibly good shape.

And even that's assuming just a single NK, which you're even less likely to be than yogs.

Personally I'm most interested in the tension between brasas/nacho and nacho->lift. And to a somewhat lesser extent trent/cristi and tammy->nacho. That's the kinda shit that might actually tell us something more than *random.

Aside from town reading him now, wisely or not, I think the yogs wagon is a dead-end if town. Would still probably hammer to avoid no lynch (and mostly for the achievement) but I'm not in favor of it.

@Trent - I'd really like to know your view of yogs v. Lift wagons, both in terms of Lift v. yogs directly, but also the pattern of votes on each.

____

@Stan - why do you think RW dropped you so quickly from his list of likely SK's between posts 1166 and 1188? I can see a variety of potential angles, just wondered if you had a theory.

To be fair to brasas, I'd noticed the shift when RW did it and socked it away, but as I thought it was townvig!stan, I didn't question it at the time and just considered it a stroke of luck.

@Tammy - same question for you actually - why do you think RW dropped from yogs/you/nacho/stan as possible in 1166 to just you/nacho by 1188? Data or just noise?

unvote bler144

As long as I write fewer, longer posts I can probably avoid getting modkilled. Maybe.

I gave my opinion of yogs here and I can see why he is under such heavy suspicion. He has been off all game and not playing like he is invested in town winning even though he swears up and down he is. I know yogs often sees a bigger picture and pushes for it in some odd ways, but in this case I'm not feeling it. I still don't see yogs as scum, but probably a neutral of some sort. If he is town or scum he is playing a strange game.

As for Lift I believe his claim and don't think he is scum and that's why I removed my vote from him. I assume everyone else that has removed their vote believe his claim too or they would have left their votes on him.

I suck at wagon analysis, I don't look at a wagon and try to figure out everyone's motivation for being on it and for voting when they did. My play style is more of pressure voting or questions to gauge reactions of the person I'm questioning/voting and the reaction of others. If I find someone to be scummy I vote.

What are your thoughts on cristi?

Lif - opportunistic switch.

Bler - thanks for Dess meta. Haven't the foggiest clue what RW was doing.

Brasas - I do not trust yog. I do think I'd rather leave him alone. Maybe I ate RW, I dunno. I don't have a freezer room, only a smokehouse. Are you implying my food is only fit for dogs?

I do not believe Lif's claim and would greatly enjoy lynching him. Side eyeing trent atm for interference.

unvote bler144

I should probably consult what I've said before prior to speaking, but IDC. In my brain I have her as slightly more likely than average to be town.

I thought she was a pretty good neutral arbiter in EOD, putting out data that might support a dess case, but not seeming to put a thumb on the scale either way, and then making a gut type of case for not actually voting him herself.

Doing the profile of Dess' prior games and looking at how it might compare to this game, I thought cristi looked reasonably good on that front. Though certainly that assumes Dess' prior two scum games make any basis for predictive behavior at all, but it tended to reinforce an existent view, however slightly.

Re-skimming her now, she town-read wyrm early when as scum she really could've gotten away with not doing so. As noted before, I think of all of us he's arguably one of the most immune to being pocketed, so I doubt she was going for that.

Could she be pocketing me? Perhaps. I've tended to agree with her approach fairly across the board, and a fair number of conclusions as well. Seems like she's engaging on a number of fronts, though I haven't gone through and compared her activity vs. all 10 active players + RW/Dess.

This gets to why I'm less interested in resolving a hypothetical trent v. cristi. I still think you're both probably town, and if it came to it I'd probably vote you over her, but only on the longshot theory that you flipping scum would point to nacho next in standard team or multi-. No idea who scum!cristi points to.

Back at you - You've been her teammate. Would you describe cristi as someone who distances or is prone to busing?

I've only been her teammate as scum one time and we did not have to bus anyone so all I can do is speculate. I would say If cristi had to she would bus someone, but I would not say she is prone to doing it. As for distancing, I would say no. I believe she interacted with me and Hyper in the same manner as she would have if she had been town. i don't think there is much difference between her town game and her scum game.

Thanks.

Here's why I asked the question - read the last part of cristi's final D1 post. It's pretty strongly worded, and builds to a conclusion of "I do think it is likely that one of [wyrm v. RW] is scum."

Again, irrelevant in multi-ball, perhaps, but that doesn't look like RW+cristi to me unless she's prepared to bus hard. Much less that cristi+RW chuckle their way into nightfall and decide the perfect follow-up is to maybe kill Wyrm and potentially put cristi on the spot to bus him D2 b/c presumably RW doesn't know he's going to die, right?

Now, could she be scum not with RW and be setting him up with the Wyrm kill? Eh, I suppose. Seems a little on the nose, but...it still looks like the sort of puzzling out I tend to think is probably town.

What's your take on scum!cristi + that post. In what setup does scum!cristi fit, and how likely is that setup?

(Defending cristi here, fwiw)

Why could she not be scum with RW? I have seen so many times someone say "of this person or that person I think one of them is probably scum" and then never go back to it. It's the end of the day and neither RW or wyrm were going to be lynched so it's an easy statement to make. That's a statement that if you are town looks good or if you are scum trying to build cred looks good.

My gut says cristi is scum, I could be totally wrong since it seems I often am.

Trent - your last two posts don't really mesh well together. You seem to be saying that cristi would not bus or distance (though I do acknowledge you say she would) but that doesn't really jive with your suspicions there.

Bler - I'm not really sure why Stanari was taken off of RW's list. Yog pointed out that he wouldn't make the day role comment before shooting sushi and that made sense to RW. I think Yog said that Stanari hadn't played with sushi before so that meant that only me or nacho would have made the shot.

I might be open for voting yogs, maybe. I don't know I don't really have any good reads right now I think.

I thought that I had something on Lift because if his flavor mentioned any sort of danger for which he would commute to his fields then it didn't match with him not wanting to lynch anyone or have any cause for thinking we were really in danger.

Bler is still really town and I won't vote there even if he thinks he should be policy lynched.