Truer than you (probably) know. Though on further consideration...I have a hard time wrapping my head around that. Maybe with judicious application of finger-wiggling.

If you have no idea what I'm talking about, I'm sorry. Sort of figured. Though the only shots I'm liable to take in a mafia game are the "got lynched, get smashed" kind. My first instinct was 3P, yeah, but I think on flavor inspection the getting eaten theory is much more outlandish/interesting.

Oh man oh man oh man.

True story. I swear to god.

Me and the family just got back from the Kings/Ducks game. Boss. Before the game even starts, we're sitting in our seats, right? And we're in the nosebleeds. I mean way up there. I mean my ass is glued to the roof. I'm eating my eleven-dollar burrito and the pre-game bullcrap is going on full force, right? The announcer tells everybody that the shovel sluts (oh wait, sorry, the "Power Players" are coming out to shoot some T-shirts into the audience. Yippe doo dah, right?

Except my kids start bouncing around like they just snorted some pixies stix, "DADDY! DADDY! T-SHIRTS!" and I'm like, "Hey kids, let's be real, we're so high up we hired a Sherpa to get here, the hoochie mamas with the T-shirt guns are on the ice, it's not for us, settle yourselves down" and I tuck back into that burrito because by god almighty I paid eleven goddamn dollars for the thing and I was going to savor every bite. Had my hat tucked low, was ignoring the scenery, just punishing that burrito like it stole money from me and I shit you not, I would not shit you my people, I shit you not, two seconds later a T-shirt hit me in the face. Literally. In the face. Thankfully missing the burrito, because holy fuck I paid eleven dollars for that thing and if I'd lost a single morsel due to incoming apparel fire I would have been pissed like I can't even articulate.

My one kid grabs it and he's celebrating like we just won the Irish Sweepstakes and I'm like, "OK, alright, good for us, I don't know anything, great, there's your one T-shirt in a lifetime, enjoy it while you can, you'll be putting your own kids through hockey at $750 a pop per season the next time you get one of those, kiddos."

And I swear to god, you can't make this shit up, I swear to god, two seconds later a second T-shirt takes a bounce off a seat behind us and lands directly in front of my other kid who jumps on it like it's a hand grenade and he has his eyes on a posthumous CMoH.

I tell no lies my people.

But they were Ducks T-shirts, so we threw them away.

Balls.

...


Oh right, Forum Mafia.

I'll get back to you on that tomorrow, OK?

Yogsloth you are a gem

Maybe, but other players who were eaten left behind faces and organs and such. I'm putting SK at least in the mix, or something other, and the lover thing perhaps, but while it's dangerous to read too much into flavor, I don't really think I'm inclined to buy wolf on wolf kill.

I have a confession to make - I guess I didn't read trent all the way through. In 1273 he posted his vote for Dess and said "I'm going to go with my gut and this is were my vote will stay."

I guess I just assumed he did that and stopped reading him. Errr...whoops.

So I should probably look at that whole sequence again a bit more carefully. That said, I'm still more curious about Lift and yogs I think. babs only if there's good reason to conclude multiple factions, and at this point that's pretty inconclusive at best. cristi also could have pushed the dess wagon forward but didn't, following a pretty solid analysis of the vote trend, but for the time being I think I'm still reading her as solvey certainly moreso than yogs, and also Lift.

yogs I'm curious about both ways - yogs was happy with pretty much every wagon until it came to dess when he stuck to babs post-claim and then went no lynch. And then going the other way, dess called yogs out as suspicious for yogs not being on dess for lurking and then went ahead and voted quad? I called it out as weird at the time, and it's still weird to me, esp. since yogs at least had more credibility as a counterwagon.

Maybe it's just as simple as not wanting to provoke someone who might vote for him, IDK. At the moment it's the closest thing to anything that feels like clarity.
_____

lol - considering you live in Ducks territory you could've, like, saved them for Xmas presents for kids at school or something.

____
Wyrm isn't here anymore, so I clinch the useless math sweepstakes with this post. Woo!

Doing some basic process of elim on who Ix was looking at, it was presumably someone alive. And cross off the people we know moved or should have moved based on their claim. No shock at all if babs moved, e.g. Only surprising if he doesn't. So leaves 8 people in play for whom Ix might have rifled through their underwear drawer and be hesitate to tell us they weren't home:

2. Lifthrasil...............................Sean O'Donnell (Sean-O!)
8. Brasas..............................................Daniel (Dan) Evans
9. cristigale.......................................................Claire Dwyer
11. yogsloth.........................................................Eric Barton
12. Nachomamma8...................Fergus (Fergie) Perkins
14. trentonlf.......................................................Emily Barton
15. bler144..................................................Marie Thomson
17. Stanari....................................................Justin Dawson

Though 7, if you think the he's not-dead thing relevant.

It did occur to me overnight that you could make one hell of a bastard game with a town PGO and a scum bus driver. Make it like 10v1 and just sit back and laugh. Bit of a digression there.

Anyway, if by some chance there are 2 scum left in that pile that didn't move, they've actually got it down to 5-6 who Ix visited (6-7 if 1, etc.) since they can rule themselves out of the mix. That said, they'd still have to decide when to deal with Ix since, while seemingly not a tracker, he can apparently shoot a hole in vanilla claims and maybe...knows something else?

Whether or not we end up knowing D2, I think we probably have to know D3, esp if NK>1, and probably moreso if we end up lynching in that group, which seems quite likely -Tammy and Ix are almost certainly out of the mix for D2, and babs probably as well.

____
One last point it's slightly curious no one has mentioned - the wolf flips. I noticed but hadn't really thought much about it. No roles, just "werewolf." Drealmer's first game IIRC was quad's Epsilon game where the scum likewise didn't have roles (I doubt yogs remembers that game), but they still had abilities. And dess probably wasn't bluffing about having "something" he could do, whether or not even he knew what it was yet.

IDK, maybe that detail clears babs after all? I've been assuming if he was scum he was scum doctor, not scum pulling a doctor claim out of thin air and then having it go uncontested. At the very least, I don't think he's "wolf-doctor." But what the hell does he heal, flavor-wise? Marijuana can't cure everything.

Poll question - should we ask babark exactly how his role works? It seems...pretty odd that a doctor could heal someone who's been half-digested. Also doesn't seem very useful against disappearance (RW death). Maybe useful against a vig? But...that claim...IDK.
____

Anyway, too-long post. Think that's enough confusion for/from me for the day.

Sorry if it wasn't clear - I don't think that was a wolf kill. Yog is a can of headache and mixed signals. Do you think this is the play he goes for as scum though? I think Ix's results are way more useful unouted, at least for this portion of the day, because it has the potential to catch scum out. (Or had. Perhaps not so much now. At least it enforces some degree of fidelity?) FWIW, mod unresponsive when queried about wolf flips. Wouldn't rule it out. Actually flavor justification is a good idea and something we should have done yesterday. Same for Ix too?

In that case I leave it to his judgement. EOD: we have a sizeable Dess wagon for lack of a better alternative. Several people get cold feet. As we approach deadline, the consistency of wagon approaches that of sand. Somehow I end up breaking what I think is a tie but really is not because of something I'm going to have words about.

Tangentally: lynch wagons now and in the future should probably have a margin of 2, unless someone feels like testing that out which I actually wouldn't be opposed to because it gives us more of the EOD pieces.

Reaching the point where I cannot word, sorry.

Quick check in, busy weekend. Had a small window this afternoon to read. Cliff notes version -

My impressions: quad and wyrm both seemed like werewolf deaths, RWarehall something else. Tammy has now explained both Dessi (good call) and sushi. I was wrong about both. I'm impressed we have a vig who could kill both night and day. RWarehall disappearing is unusual, makes it unlikely a shot from a JOAT. SK? possible. Hadn't thought of the lovers angle - seems a bit far-fetched for werewolves.

My first thought with two apparent werewolf deaths was two factions. If one faction, it makes process of elimination much easier - would shrink my suspect list down to lift, yogs, trent (in that order.) Tammy's question for Nacho might provide a fourth. If we have multiple factions, opens the pool to almost everyone. Based on RWarehall's switch vote at the end, it appears he and Dessi were on the same team (in addition to the flavor.) Wolves travel in packs (does the same apply to werewolves?), so if two teams, perhaps 2 teams of 3? Thinking about the the packs idea and the RW note itself, one team fits more with the flavor. Then again, our flavor really didn't give us a good reason to try to lynch someone on D1. We also don't know what role, if any, that SirCrimsonFox played.

I also wondered if the no-lynch on dessi was due to the one-off votes between him and no-lynch. I expected whoever had the most votes (dessi) would be lynched. No-lynch was only one vote behind. As the flavor played out, the no-lynchers basically countered 3 of the 4 votes on dessi and dessi, himself countered the final vote. Would dessi have been lynched otherwise? (Probably won't know until post-game) Do we need a bigger majority to lynch?

Interesting question about how a doctor protects from werewolves - I actually have an thought on how that could work. Don't know if babark wants to share more or not.

My guess is Quad was killed because we learn almost nothing from his death. He didn't participate enough to leave anything to go on. I originally read the flavor as him having a Watcher role but can also see guardian. It might work better.

Long day tomorrow. Gotta get some sleep. Hope everyone has a good week. See ya tomorrow.

Good morning.

Regarding the lynch mechs, I actually noticed some Drealmer hints it might be maj afterall. I was assuming almost near consensus required but think that was wrong. It just needs to go through the phases.

I still called it about the lack of hammer making wagons collapse though. I don't find that surprising in itself. Just you know, how it happened given the claims and the fact Dess was an ok flip to see even if mislynch.

Agreed. I also think Tammy, since she was going onto no lynch herself and is lock town pretty much is a good impartial analyst for this.

Regarding old timers and my iron will (TM)... I know I wasn't really seeing the Dess case. I would love to be TammyTown and understand the magic toan reading. But alas, got to play with what I have inside my craneum and my testes.

Noted and noted. vanilla scum are called goons I think. I also think Drealmer has not even used the word vanilla, so maybe they were just goons left unsaid. That said, the observation on RW sticking his neck out for Dess might indicate a wolf PR, in which case maybe we just don't get wolf flips. Well, as long as they die I'm fine with that honestly.

Funny Yogs. Playing with you is less funnier than just reading you though. Skin in the game and all that... Surprises me you don't get vigged more often honestly. If only...

Please look into the no lynch flip flops of the others.

Also, I trust flavor enough to exclude the lovers theory. Nathan (Dess) was not dead when Adam (RW) already was. Hence the timing seems off? Dess died in Daybreak. RW at Night.

Also, yes... Nacho... I still have him scummy myself. I think you're on a streak basically.

Dear Justin, since you're the butcher, I hope this does not meant tomorrow's stew will taste unusual... :P

What I can tell you is that I don't think any town role is that powerful. Ambiguities abound.

Heh


Ok and a final comment. I rem reading someone assuming one wolf faction. Given we had 2 NKs, maybe it's just my lack of experience with open setups but I'm going to assume two and actually find slightly suspicious anyone that outwardly or not disimisses that (a la babark subtly, or I think it was Bler explicitly) WIFOM WIFOM but still. We will continue to get data and find out more soon enough either way.

I mean, ok crazy theory time. RW did the second NK and suicided after? As some kind kind of scum suicide bomber? I'd rather just assume 2 factions for now.

[refreshes]

When you have time please look at the no lynches.

Don't have much time to post now and am mostly posting from memory so be warned in advance that there will probably be some bad information here and I won't be saying everything that I want to say:

1) The no lynch yesterday makes me think that we should probably push to get majority on wagons; drealmer has mentioned several times how the town's decision is a very in depth deliberation and etc etc so we should probably make sure that we can guarantee ourselves a lynch that way.

2) Tammy, my initial push back on you on RW was mostly because I thought your attack there was unfair; before you attacked him, I thought most of his posts looked reasonable (didn't stand out to me) and I thought you calling him out for SK-hunting was a bit unreasonable when he said that he thought that the vig shot looked like an SK and his shortlist was me and you but neither of us looked particularly scummy and that was it. In retrospect he went hard in the paint SK hunting after you attacked him but I really don't think that his initial posting about the SK was bad.

3) I didn't ask for help reading Secondhand because I have never struggled reading him. I didn't focus on him this game because we had a talk on Skype before the game began about how he struggles to keep up with large games and convince himself to post in large games. I'm not really sure what you're talking about as far as a recent misread goes?

I need to read flavor more closely when I get the chance (and unfortunately I don't really have the chance right now), but the flavor doesn't imply lovers: Adam thought that Nathan was still alive when he wrote his letter.

Oh wow. The Day just started, four more dead and already quite some read. ...

Four dead... but 2 for 2 is awesome for town. The Daykill yesterday and one of the nightkills are accounted for. And Tammy is confirmed town. That leaves 3 deaths to account for. Two town and one werewolf, that might have been suicide. Though if Tammy's theory is true that he was a lover and died because his maker died, then that would mean that we have another werewolf/scum team originating from another maker. A second scum team might make sense anyhow, looking at the number of night-kills. Either that or one or two more nightkilling roles that might be town aligned or not.

One question to Ix though, before I continue: how do you know that the person you visited and that wasn't home was no werewolf / other scum? Did you get a town-read while searching through everything? Or could it be that you did find a scum or SK after all?

Damn. I should read more thorough. Nacho is right. If we go by the flavour, the lover scenario doesn't make sense. So, is there any other reason for some role to suicide? Or do we have an SK who can make it look like a suicide.

In any case there are two nightkills too many. I guess Bookwyrm was the one that scum picked, with his half-mason claim. The others? What the hell is a Worrier? Did he worry himself to death? It seems to be a new role that drealmer thought up, so it might be anything. Interesting though, that with so many killing roles around none targeted the claimed Doctor. That might mean that the 'Doctor' was a false claim and babark is scum. Or it might mean that scum intentionally left him alive to make it look like a false claim. WIFOM, whichever way you turn it.

So, to try to see more clearly: babark, whom did you protect tonight and why?

My opinion on two mafia teams is I don't think there is. The standard flare is 25% is mafia, that would mean 4 or 5 at the most. If you split that into two teams it would probably be two teams of two with maybe one or two neutrals. 6 mafia (2 teams of 3) could be possible since I would think a team would have to get the majority to win, but that would be unfair to the mafia for such small teams in a large game (the same for 2 member teams). A single team of 6 would be too much I think.

My gut says we have one team of 4 or 5 mafia with a neutral or two thrown in the mix. The only part that throws me off is that the two town deaths look like werewolf kills. Is there a way for mafia to have two kills in a night on one team?

I didn't know that at the time but just assumed it (with two werewolves dead and the fact that I didn't visit one of them, I assumed it was more likely I had visited a townie doing one of the kills than a third scum - or at least I was going to avoid a reveal because of it - it was just too risky).

BUT I screwed up and went back and read the flavor in detail (I had just check out the bold deaths / teams then checked the OP for who was who LOL) and I don't mind outting who I visited last night because of the flavor write up for today and, well, a post by the player.

Largely because it helps others help me figure out what the heck I am LOL.

I visited Tammy. I DIDN'T get a role, I DIDN'T get an alignment. I basically got "nothing seems out of place." So maybe I only find scum?

I'm not sure why people are as frazzled as they are about 4 kills when the expectation of "a couple neutrals" has come from a good swath of GoGers unless someone's put hallucinogens in my coffee again. I don't think wolves got two kills; multiple factions are possible, of course, but I don't think we are dealing with that since werewolves are the only evil faction that makes sense and the flips so far haven't been along the lines of "Pack A" and "Pack B".I guess maybe RW could have been a suicide bomber or something like that but sacrificing your life to kill either Bookwyrm or Quad seems weird.

lx, earlier you said that the flavor implied that Tammy wasnt home. Now you said that it implied nothing was out of place. Did you get anything from Drealmer clarifying what you learned (if anything?). Did you ask him to clarify?