Well. It's a beautiful day... dum dum dum...

Kinda at least, bittersweet as well. Here's my thoughts prepared during daybreak:


Yogs must be happy as punch… 0_o this must be some kind of record.

I’m starting D2 on the same place as D1 – very suspicious of the flavor. I kinda want to ask people about roles and timing but heh…

Anyway, quite the night? Not sure if the worrier was a watcher or a bodyguard or both, but clearly he played well enough to protect or draw the kill instead of someone. So good play from Quad. Wyrm… well, he drew a NK, so also well played. But I’m conflicted on that one.

Moving on. TammyTown so town. Also strange flavor. Not sure you should reply, but I am curious if you knew Dess was wolf or other daybreaks you might stick that lovely dagger into a town’s heart… Still, I cannot imagine a setup so weird where you would be anti town so locking you in.

Then… before reading all the daybreak, I really wanted to push those that moved to NoLynch. On one hand seeing RW and Dess both wolves makes me feel that even more. I mean, really? No Lynch = No Flip at such late hour? Of course town was not sure Dess was wolf - heck I still don't see tammy's case on him to be honest - more to her merit. And yet even Tammy was going towards NoLynch. Or was that a ruse? And well… I don’t know… it’s a jumble.

Now however, the most surprising thing IMO is the 2 NKs. Not sure if there is enough solid data to draw many conclusions. The most interesting speculation is whether scum might have known of this or not. I can imagine two smallish scum teams guessing it independently. I can imagine very few town and some kind of werewolf competition. (But really, Tammy, me, plus 3 confirmed dead town… can’t be many more if that’s the case?). I can’t really see vampires or wizards or any such crap, given the flavor. Well, I can imagine a town witch actually but nuf said. Anyway, leaving this for now.

I did manage to finish reading Wyrm and Nacho. Will post later. Wyrm in particular is like redundant, though his flip does shed some light IMO.


Ok, back to morning. A few quick reactions.

Or just maybe there's more than one scum team and RW flip does not clear you?
I mean, I still have you as town derp, but well...

heh

le sigh

Tammy duh. Stan and Trent why?

Nathan (Dess) is named in the letter, pretty sure it was him... surely this is not the first time you noticed Drealmer's writing is just a tad clunky? [ sorry Drealmer, Hemingway you are not ;) you're doing brilliantly setting a mysterious tone though ]

Quad clearly died because he was "worried about someone more than he let on". Duh...

Mmm. Will look at that again - but the switch to no lynch at EoD is really, really problematic for me. Especially if there's other factors in play WRT that, which seems quite possible. Actually, the same thought occured to me. How possible is a scum vig? That's the most probable thing that doesn't involve a second scumteam, I think.

The whole EOD is just. Bizarre.

RW exposed himself to attempt to save Dess; would he do that if he didn't think there was a good chance to save him? What does that imply about the weird vote split? Was this a concerted effort to save Dess, and if so why gamble so much there? Well yes I see that now.

Of all the crazy, bizzaro, and just plain dumb things I've said at various points, and THAT's the one that makes you sigh?

FWIW, I did think seriously about that detail you quoted at the end of this post, and I think it probably shifts the balance to bodyguard/etc. over watcher very slightly, but it's still quite ambiguous.

If town PRs will have ambiguous flips, that either says Drealmer is not on the details, or more likely is part of the overall balance, somehow.

As for Trent, pretty sure I just addressed that. ;)
Re: Stan, if anything I thought I was being too blatantly obvious on what my read is.


@Stan - general question...as either scum or town, would you say you're good at pretending to not know things you do know? How much would you rely on bringing up questions you already know the answer to precisely to intentionally look like you don't know?

I totally missed the link of Nathan to dessimu (and I had the people backwards on who wrote the letter too), thanks for pointing it out.

@Stanari It grated me to no end to vote No Lynch to end the day, but I did not like how the day was progressing. Every time someone was put under suspicion a claim popped out, and I was unsure at that time who to believe. The last thing I wanted was to kill a town PR on Day 1 as it hurts us too much to lose a PR early on.

I can compartmentalize information pretty well. Sometimes it bleeds through but it's usually so subtle that no one notices.

I think I don't tend to hit people over the head with fake confusion as town (I find the opposite to be a useful situational crumb, in fact). As scum...can't remember the last time I was in that situation, if ever, but...I think I tend to emulate my town headspace there.

The only acceptable lynch on D1 is a VT?

I mean it's not even like Dess made an explicit claim, it was just "lynch me bad".

Wow, crazy! Awesome, but seriously what the heck is going on? I need to spend a bit more time reading the flavor write ups but thought I'd check in.

I ... got very little information last night. In fact, I'm still not even really sure exactly what it is I do (?). HOWEVER my flavor strongly implied that the person I visited last night wasn't home, and given that we have two dead wolves and I didn't visit either of them, I'd rather not out what might be a VERY powerful town role.

If anyone wants any more feedback or information or opinions or whatnot on that choice let me know but wow, that was some night.

What is a VT?

Vanilla town?

If that is what she meant the answer is a big fat no. I have no problem lynching anyone on Day 1 if I find them scummy. My whole issue with the end of the day was I did not know who to believe. I can't remember a game where so many role claims were made on Day 1.

Thanks, I think this is well-handled for now.

Personally, I think the safest thing to do is to see what flavor Tammy got since she's both completely out of the closet and the uber-towniest (thus presumably the most reliable).

For example, if she killed Dess at his place, that raises the odds (at least slightly) to whoever you visited as a potential killer since it's highly unlikely RW made 2 kills in one night. If she caught Dess coming home that doesn't prove he was the killer, but I do think it at least clarifies the odds in terms of what you saw, maybe.

So what she "knows" from her flavor might not prove anything, but I think would still be useful and quite safe as a starting point.

What are your thoughts (open question to all, actually) on RW just not being found?

Mmmk.

Eaten.

Does that leave you thinking there were 3 wolf kills, then, since both Quad and Wyrm look to have been more definitively chewed up? Or do you think one of those other 2 is a false flag?

Anyway, from the spin you're putting on it, I'm going to go ahead and assume you didn't kill RW then :)

I have a pretty different theory, personally, but I'd like to see everyone check in and share their thoughts before we really get to work fer realz.

Still waiting on Nacho/cristi/Lift, right?

The other kind of eaten if ya know what I mean.

I had planned to make a post earlier, but d&d session ran longer than I thought it would, so I'm going to be brief as I'm getting ready to crash.

I haven't read the flavor for the RW kill in depth I guess because I was under the impression he committed suicide. I thought that maybe he was a lover to dessimu (his maker) and that's why he died. I also didn't read the flavor at all for the two town deaths, so I don't know if one or both look like werewolf kills. I was also wondering what a worrier was.

Someone wondered about my flavor and if I knew dessimu was scum. I stabbed dessimu at a meeting in front of everyone, so he wouldn't have been at home or elsewhere. Is that what flavor you were wondering, I think Bler? And no, I had no idea that dessimu was scum. He was on my short list for three people that I was contemplating. Dessimu was the most practical one and why I ultimately went with him because he was a strong scum read and we ended up with a no lynch yesterday when we would have most likely lynched him. Therefore he made the best practical sense for the shot.

I also considered RW for all the reasons I was suspicious of him yesterday. I told you guys hunting for the SK was a mafia tell! (Also Nacho when you get here I do want to talk to you about this a bit because when we were talking about it and I told you my suspicion, you disregarded what my actual suspicion was to say you also thought it was an SK who made the shot, but my concern wasn't whether people thought it could be an SK or not, but that he was so strongly SK hunting and you know that that is a mafia tell but you kind of sidestepped it. Why did you think he was town?)

I also had Lift on my short list but my lift suspicious rose because of his end of day play that didn't make a whole lot of sense. He moved to babark after not seeing any of the suspicion on babark the entire day and it's entirely possible that that move onto babark was to move momentum from dessimu. My suspicion there really only worked if dessimu was scum, so ultimately dessimu made the best choice for me.

But, no I didn't know and I had a terrible moment of panic after I submitted my action that I fucked up again and we'd be down two town because of me. I also am responsible for the dragon sushi day kill yesterday. I always planned on claiming it today after my night shot was also taken. Unfortunately my plan yesterday was to use it on Agent, but I hesitated because I worried that he could be a town power role so I wanted to think about it for another day and then he replaced out. I still suspected RW especially when his play seemed more focused on theory than on actual game play, but I thought it was rude to kill someone who just replaced in.

I realize that I could have waited to use it another day and everyone has different theories for how and when to use vig shots, but they work for me to use them early. I have a pretty decent record with vig shots and I have a tendency to die early, so waiting to use my role isn't something I really consider. I was hoping that if I hit scum, which i would have if I didn't hesitate on Agent, it would give some direction to the game especially for those that were considering no lynching because we didn't know if there was an actual evil faction our there or what it was. We were also kind of stagnating a bit and my reads felt fluffy. My next possible choice was quad, but then I reread his iso and thought that even though he was a lurker he looked decently town when he did post.

My dragon sushi suspicion came from what mostly felt like weird suspicion on trent and stanari, and sometimes the avenues he pushes when scum are odd. I also hoped it would help me with my nacho read. Nacho said that he wanted my help with reading yogsloth, but he didn't talk about or mention sushi, who he also recently read incorrectly. I was concerned that nacho and sushi could be partnered, and I hoped that knowing sushi's alignment would help me sort my reads. I waffled on it a few days and then went ahead and took the action, and that action was wrong. So, I'm very sorry, especially since it did absolutely nothing to help my reads.

I'm out now. I had one day shot and one night shot; I will be responsible for no other deaths.

One thing I want to look back at is who dismissed the dessimu suspicion as lurker suspicion. I've had that happen before where i suspected someone and their partners dismissed the suspicion as just being on a lurker. I think that's an easy thing to do because it gives you a reason not to be on the lynch and discredits the suspicion in the first place. I do realize that I didn't have a great case on dessimu or anything, but I do want to look at that. Also want to look at Lift and his end of day again. RW's SK hunt may have had something to it due to the amount of night kills, but I'm not sure how to even begin with that especially without knowing what a worrier is.

Okay I am heading to bed. I haven't read the most recent posts, so I will do that tomorrow.