Yeah, that's kinda what I was noticing though trying not to comment on. Have any particular observations?

I do, since you ask!

Ok, so there are a couple pretty specific scenarios where scum!babark still works with this spread, but it is a tad worrisome just how specific. E.g. Lift and Dess (last post 2 days ago, 2 posts in 4 days) haven't been around while this wagon was actually starting to roll. If they're both mafia with babs, they were gone at the wrong time to mount a counter.

Yogs has been gone all day, though I still just think he's neutral or something bizarro, not wolf.

Likewise scum!cristi or scum!tammy might just stay deep wolf and bus. Maybe it's only 3 strong wolves + neutrals and scum just doesn't have the bodies to push a counter. It's not a high percentage play, but that doesn't mean it's not a high-value play, necessarily.

Gut wants me to think it's just that simple as something like babs/Lift/Ix/Dess. You know, like the champs game! This could just be a pretty solid town bloc slowly tightening the grip and caught a break with the slip/not-slip-perceived-as-slip plus the weekend timing for it starting to go somewhere.

And I spent a long time looking at Ix's vote on Quad. If scum!Lift, that would also explain, culturally speaking, why scum!Ix wouldn't chase onto town!Stan. Can explain that if you like.

Or maybe a hail Mary hoping a surge of interest in lurkers since your wagon hasn't exactly been rolling despite being long-standing?

Your wagon does look pretty dead, wouldn't you say?

Wrote more, but will leave it at this: if he is scum, there's enough data here to really push ahead. Not much if town. Still, I think the upside outweighs the downside, even as someone who would have preferred a counter-wagon. But I'm solidly against a Stan-wagon, and think a Quad-wagon will just be too easy to manipulate to risk it.

Sorry-not-sorry for WOT.

FWIW, either Wyrm or Lift could ...potentially work in that scenario, though I think Lift just works better in a number of ways. e.g. Even if he wanders off, wyrm pokes at challenges to Ix's wagon (like Stan) in a way I just don't think is highly likely to be w/w.

Wyrm:
#231 Votes Ix
#264 Unvotes Ix, votes Drealmer
#372 Unvotes nobody, votes cristi
#384 Unvotes cristi
<440 - Ix arrives, votes No Lynch>
#539 Votes fox
#661 Unvotes fox, votes Ix
<#742 Ix claims>
#747 Unvotes Ix (post claim), votes Quad
#789 Unvotes Quad, votes Stan
no change since


Lift:

#220 Votes Ix
#354 Unvotes Ix
<440 Ix arrives, votes No Lynch>
#468 Votes Ix
#680 Lift unvotes Ix, votes Stan
<#742 Ix claims>


Dess:
#383 Votes Fox
#429 Unvote Fox, vote Stan
#475 Unvotes Stan
#556 Votes Fox
<#691 Fox dies>
#710 Votes Ix
<#742 Ix claims>
#810 Unvotes Ix

Now, perhaps being overly clever, but scum!(Dess + Lift + Ix) actually works pretty well. Lift gets his distancing in, moves off to setup a lynch of Stan if Ix does flip, and Dess slides on for his own distancing when his ez-mode wagon gets mod-killed (been there!).

So maybe the fact that there isn't a viable counter-wagon isn't for lack of trying?

Still, as much as it's a pretty theory, not a drop of it has been, y'know, proven.

Oops, did I careen through your cunning setup? Sorry.

Upon some reflection - not a fan of the vote spread that has manifested. Only two wagons that can really be qualified as wagons, and then a bunch of people scattered off doing nothing without really pushing a lynch. And disconcertingly many non-voting. Which might just be culture shock, but. Why these two players in particular? I mean I can see a gazillion reasons why scum Ix wouldn't want to counterwagon the person who's yelling his towniness from the rooftops. But Ix hasn't enthusiastically pushed Quadr either... but then again I don't think forcefully slamming mislynches down town's throat is his style. Or, I suppose, they've given up! 8D It doesn't seem to have a lot of momentum, no, although I think because my wagoneers haven't been around so much today. I'm open to him manifesting towniness but yeah.

Have you tried a babark/Wyrm/Dess/Lift team? :O

You didn't crash my setup, no. Probably would've gone to bed without elaborating if you hadn't hit on exactly the point, or half of it, anyway. Your comment was an invitation to rant! :) (Regret making it?)

If mafia! (Ix+babark) , I think Ix is laying low hoping his own cover holds. Voting Quad in that scenario might not even be a serious attempt to boost a counter-wagon but just to look busy with an easy vote ("I like voting lurkers!"). That said, Ix could still just be neutral, or even town.

I'm still on yogs, fwiw, because despite not thinking he's mafia, as noted repeatedly, I don't really think he's town either. And for a while I was waiting for babark to say something before committing to anything else. At this point I'm giving him time to see, and evaluate, what he has to say about anything besides you and RW.

The only 4 people in play for me for D1 are Lift, Dess, Quad, and babark, and of those Quad is the only viable wagon. And I don't like that one much in the current context. I'd hammer Lift, but don't trust myself to create an objective wagon so someone else would need to make the case, and while Dess has done pretty much nothing, I don't have a solid basis for pushing that up to actual wagon status either.

So mostly I'm camped out waiting to see what develops with babark, or not. If other people lynch babark without me, I'm fine just camping on yogs to troll him. There's no real plan B to babark for me atm, barring something surprising.

I think yogs is trolling all of us, but I think he'll pile on a wagon when it looks like it's moving on its own (as he did with Ix's). I'd be shocked if he pushed a counter or even made much effort to get babark moving along. He doesn't want to be seen scum-hunting for anything.

I still think Tammy (esp.) and cristi are both town, fwiw, it was more a comment on both being cool analyst types. Regardless of alignment cristi is more likely to analyze which coalition to join, not which one to get out the vote for. Get a similar read from Tammy. If anything I think they'd nudge and then follow, and while I should re-read them both over the last 24-48 hours, I haven't noticed if they are nudging. Just saying, it would stand out if cristi were suddenly blowing horns to build a counter, and I suspect similar from Tammy, who seems to play like our HSL - putting energy into seeing/analyzing much more than being out in front creating inertia.

Do need to re-read cristi though.

I haven't looked at the combo you suggest, and not doing it tonight. Besides, before I proceed further down Wacky Theory Canyon, I'd like to see a few of the analysts critique even where I'm at, or even start with the vote count map and make their own theories/strategies.

And with that, I'm going to read a bit of something else and get to bed. Fresh clean sheets!

Good morning! My journey is over, I am ready to get back on track. No idea what new things happened but it won't be long till I do.

In the meantime - anyone has any questions or requests for me? Last time I checked (yesterday), pretty much no one missed me :( At least Bler does. Hi, Bler!

I love rants! <3 Yeah, as much as yog is giving of the discomfitting feels, he hasn't done anything really "zomg that's scum".

On the other hand, he hasn't done much of anything. Is this typical? Because pathological NK magnet or because yog? Fair enough. Preflip associatives probably not the best rabbit hole to be going down yet.

PPE: oh hey Dessimu! Your take on the current votecount and RW vs babark, please.

How condescending :P

I throw shit around and see who sticks to it.

Called it.

Sushi had some good posts :`( I'd be happier if scum were getting tree branches to fall on them on the way back from the crapper.

One can drealm...

Pinging these to state the obvious - it's Stan vs Babark.

Only speed reading as I had mostly made my mind on vote overnight. Pinging this to come back to it.

Speak for myself... hmmm something feels off in that formulation.
But I'm certainly not attempting to parse it right now. Do report back when you're done with it please.

And in the game... >:)

With Drealmer implying infidelity and now this, I'm wondering who isn't on Marie's wagon. If you get my drift...

I guess this depends on the meaning of substantive. Even his wagon is not that substantive if you ask me.

Quite the tonedeaf observation though, considering you're the counterwagon...



OK, now for the vote. I don't like to vote either babark or stanari. But I'm going to continue to be scarse due to IRL stuff.

I'll precommit to folks I'd be happier voting if counterwagons form without giving reasons why right now: Wyrm, Nacho, Trent, Quad. Maybe Lift... need to reread him. (thx Bler)

Please understand this ^ does not mean I see any or all of these as absolutely scummy, just relatively.

Then why babark or stanari? It comes down to derp read.

docbear was almost after bler in my town reads. Babark certainly is not at that level, but he is consistent with what I know of him from other threads - very defensive. I might find that suspicious with others, but with him it's null.

Also the wagon on either of them is crap right now pretty much (can be convinced otherwise), so I'm playing for the flip.

Stanari therefore gets it by default. Vote stanari Her flip might actually surprise me.

Sorry stan, I actually really like your sniping style. And if you're town as I believe I'd like to keep you around. But as mentioned, I have doc / babark as townier.

lol

As usual, I get up when america goes to sleep...

I'm impressed. Saturday was one of the most active weekend days for mafia I remember.

Of the people with votes, I will not be voting for Stanari. Not sure she is town, I like her involvement.

I'm tempted to vote for Quad for uber-lurking. I don't think he has contributed anything substantial to the game. Even though he is on babark's wagon, if babark is lynched, regardless of flip, I don't think we learn much about Quad. Same holds true for yogs, seems to be actively lurking. I don't think we learn much from his flip either. If I was going to vote for lurking, Quad would trump yogs.

Lift and RWarehall - I find it doubtful that a wagon will form on either of these players today. Could either be scum? Yes. I haven't seen a strong reason to vote for either.

Which leaves docbear/barbark. I am still concerned that the sub request was due to scum panic. Hard not to be paranoid about this after the a4plz sub. Sucks to be anyone subbing into this role. Additionally, compared to the lurkers, I think we have something useful to learn from this lynch. If babark flips scum, RWarehall looks pretty townie, and trent looks a little more townie as well. I don't see either of these as buses. (I'm assuming a single scum team, if we have multiple factions either RWarehall or trent could be on another faction.) Stanari would even earn a town point or two. Ixam's vote on Quad might look like an attempt to divert attention away from the wagon.

If docbear/babark flips town, RWarehall's play would feel more like his play when he subbed in for a4plz. He could still be town. but I would want to revisit it. I don't think we learn a lot about trent or Stanari.

Vote Laura

The day after Jim died the villagers held a burial service and did not have a meeting about the situation. They took the day as a day of mourning and remembrance and wished for no hostility or tensions between each other. The next day they met as normally scheduled in the afternoon and their discussions continued productively, if not slowly, with a bit of tension and tentativeness permeating it all.

Brasas, this is something like the (fourth? third? second?) time that you've vaguely insinuated that you suspected me for reasons that you didn't follow up on. What was the post that I directed towards you that you disliked and why did you dislike it? Why did you dislike me saying that I didn't understand what was going on with RW/Babark? Why didn't you comment on all of those things I said about the argument immediately after I said I was having trouble parsing it?

Bler, I know that my Lift vote is stale and intellectually I know that I need to move it eventually but it's also been the only thing that I've felt good about voting so far this game and probably won't let that go until I find something better or deadline compels me to move earlier.

You misunderstood me. I meant that I also had trouble parsing the RW / Babark brouhaha. I skipped most of it while catching up. And I even asked you to report any conclusions when you have them.

In general I jumbled the whole thing up as: RW being agressive, babark being defensive - nothing new here, null read on both. And so I considered it irrelevant to my decision in favor of voting for Stan, for the reasons I mentioned - that I am reading docbear / babark as a slight town derpclear, and therefore see a marginally lower chance of mislynch by voting Stan.

Although you're not being super direct, I find this post interesting in that light. Meaning if Stan is wolf, I'm putting you as wolfier.


As to the broader aspect of suspecting you. I did not think I was being vague... You seem awfully interested in me having a positive opinion of you? I don't ned to follow up since you keep bringing it up! And I don't need any more reason to distrust you other than that I am not sure you are town. I suspect everyone pretty much. In this case I even suspect the mod a bit.

I like some of what you post, and I dislike some of what you post. The above on RW/babark is an example, is your misunderstanding on what I meant real or faked? How can I know? I mean, the best case you are trying to get a feel for me, just like I am trying to get a feel for you. But just maybe this is insecure wolf Nacho. Which gets all WIFOMy since I understand you're an experienced wolf? Anything in this game tripping up your wolf game? Marie gave you some of the good stuff?

The earlier stuff I'll get back to eventually. Life got in the way and I need to basically coalesce my thoughts before posting. If we don't get Sundown by wednesday or so I'll probably have time to do it.

PS: A funny thing on rereading you and Wyrm - you're a guy (in the game)! I had assumed Fergie was girl name and even recall noticing you using "wrong" pronoun once. Then I got to the post where you explain the perky moniker and I was like... egg >> Brasas' face.

Embarassment, there's another good reason to dislike you :P

FWIW, I wondered if you were throwing shade and/or what you were trying to say on first pass in that first response to him as well. Re-read it again til it made sense and realized that wasn't what you were saying, but I don't blame him for reading that way, even if I understand your position as well.

So fairly or no, his response is that "If you're going to come after him, do it for real" and instead you kinda come back with the same half-hearted "maybe he is a wolf!" thing here. So you should go back and consider maybe it was an honest misunderstanding, and I'd agree - if you're going to go at him for woofing, don't just imply it. Ask questions or something.

Unrelated question, Stan only had two votes so wasn't really much of a "wagon" wouldn't you agree? Why opt for that one rather than Lift, or Yogs, or Quad? Shouldn't potential momentum matter more in the gambit you're now proposing more than a singular vote (on a day where maj is 8)?


O hai! I did miss you!

I mean, in your absence I did propose that you/Lift/Ix/babark would make a pretty "rational" team on purely circumstantial evidence. But besides that, you know. Missed you, buddy!

As Stan asked, when you're caught up, what's your take on RW vs babark? Also, while we're here what's your take on Stan?